2014 Midterms March 2014
Daily Kos Elections Ratings 2014 March Edition
Montana: Rating Likely Democratic
Recent Developments: Max Baucus's resignation to become the US Ambassador to China was a boon for Democrats as former governor Brian Schweitzer was appointed to fill the vacant seat.
Polling Average Schweitzer +10
Alaska: Lean D
Begich has proven to be a good campaigner and his main opposition Matt Treadwell has been a lackluster fundraiser and the runner up is Joe Miller. At the same time, there are rumblings of a Sarah Palin run which could shake up the race.
Polling Average:
Begich +5
Kentucky:
General Election: Toss Up
Primary Lean McConnell
This race was already competitive between Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes before Congressman Massie launched a uprising primary campaign against McConnell so far McConnell has held a small advantage, but with McConnell's low approval rating and Massie receiving major support from Tea Party groups, this race will likely be close now and in November.
South Dakota:
Rating: Toss Up
Polling Average Tied
Surprisingly, the South Dakota Senate race is shaping up to be one of the closest in the country with incumbent Senator Tim Johnson retiring and former congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin running for the Democratic nomination and former Republican governor Mike Rounds running for the GOP.
Georgia
Rating: Toss Up
Primary Rating: Toss Up (Tilt Broun and Handel runoff)
Polling Primary Average
Broun +2
This race has become a complete free for all when Saxby Chambliss announced his retirement and has turned into a several way race.
On the Democratic side, Michelle Nuun is running and has been posting extremely strong fundraising and is polling very strongly against all of the GOP contenders, especially Broun.....
Arkansas:
Lean D
Polling Average: Pryor +6
Republicans touted congressman Tom Cotton as the perfect canidate to compete against Pryor, yet has fumbled quite badly after a recording surfaced of Cotton attacking Pryor as a "false Christian" and running a very poor ground game. In particular, Obamacare has greatly benefited Pryor as it has been extremely effective in Arkansas dramatically reducing the uninsured rate.
Arkansas Special
Rating Likely D
Polling Average: Bebe +8
Tragically, Senator Boozeman died from a massive heart attack in late January leading to the calling of a special election. Democrats have rallied behind term limited Governor Mike Bebe while Republicans recruited Congressman Rick Crawford. Governor Bebe is extremely popular in the state and in recent polling seems to be the most popular governor in the country.
West Virginia
General Election Rating: Toss Up
Primary Election Rating: Tilt Capito
Jay Rockefeller is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the country, leading to a three way primary between Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito, Businessmen John Raese and Congressman David McKinley all running for the nomination. This primary has already been noted for its increasing negativity with John Raese launching an ad blitz against Capito for being "an ally to Democrats" and deriding her as a "Republican in Name Only", meanwhile McKinley has struggled to gain traction but has stabilized around 20% of the vote mainly coming from Capito.
Primary Polling Average
Capito: 40%
Raese: 35%
McKinley: 20%
Undecided: 15%
Louisiana:
Tilt D
Landrieu is a proven campaigner, in all likely hood, the question here is does Landrieu win outright or does it go to a run off. The two major republican candidates are Bill Cassidy and Family Research Council President Tony Perkins whom is actively courting Tea Party and evangelical groups.
Polling Average:
Landrieu: 48%
Perkins: 25%
Cassidy 20%
Mississippi:
General Election: Lean Republican with Cochran, Lean Democrat with McDaniel
Primary Rating: Toss Up
This race has the notorious distinction as being the nastiest race in the country with State Senator Chris McDaniel running against incumbent Senator Thad Cochran. In a rather surprising announcement Attorney General Jim Hood announced he was running for the senate and in polling has been shown leading McDaniel and competitive with Cochran.
North Carolina:
Lean Democratic
Primary Rating: Likely Run Off
Incumbent Kay Hagan has decent approval ratings and a lackluster bench of GOP candidates running against her. GOP Assembly Speaker has failed to gain traction stuck in the high teens and is likely to be forced to a run off.
Polling Average Hagan +6 against Tillis, +10 against Brannon
Kansas:
Likely Republican
Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts is in a primary fight with Tom Wolfe a Tea Party activist and will likely face wealthy Democratic businessman Gregg Orman in the fall.
Less Notable Races at this time
New Hampshire
Likely D
Michigan
Likely D
Iowa
Likely D
Tom Harkin Running for Re-Election
Competitive Governor Ratings as of March 2014:
Michigan: Tilt D
Wisconsin: Lean D(Ron Kind vs Scott Walker)
South Carolina: Toss Up
Georgia; Tilt D
Florida: Lean D
Pennsylvania: Likely D
Illinois: Tilt D
Arkansas: Tilt D
Connecticut: Lean D
Maine: Likely D (No Cutler)
Ohio: Lean D (Strickland vs Kasich)
Kansas: Toss Up
Oklahoma: Lean R
Arizona: Toss Up
New Mexico: Tilt R
Alaska: Tilt R (30 (R), 28 (D), 25 (I))
Texas: Lean R
Some Notable House Races as of March 2014
WV-1 (R-Open)
WV-2 (R-Open)
WV-3 (D - Rahall)
-The whole West Virginia delegation is up for grabs as the two GOP incumbents announced their senate runs.
CA-21 (R-Valdao)
CA-25 (R-McKeon)
CA-31 (R-Miller)
CA-53 (D-Peters)
UT-04 (D-Matheson)
LA-5 (R-Mcallistor) Edwin Edwards (D) vs Mcallistor and lots of R's
MS-4 (R-Palazzo) Opponent Gene Taylor - D
PA-6 (R-Open)
PA-8 (R-Fitzgerald)
NC-7 (D-McIntyre)
GA-12 (D-Barrow)
MN-6 (D-Graves)
MI-1 (D-McDowell)
FL-2 (D-Lawson)
AR-1 (R-Open)
VA-10 (R-Open)
NJ-3 (R-Open)
AR-2 (R-Tim Griffin)
AR-4 (R-Open)
NY-19 (R-Gibson)
MT-AL (R-Open)
WI-6 (R-Open)