The 2004 election if there was no PATRIOT Act or Iraq War

If there was no PATRIOT Act and the idea to invade Iraq never came up, what would the 2004 election be like? How would the Democrats see Dubya? Who would they nominate?
 
Without an Iraq War, both Wesley Clark, Dennis Kucinich and probably Howard Dean are out of the race (Clark because the war motivated him to stand against the Republican Party and Dean and Kucinich because of their anti-war efforts being non-existent ITTL). John Kerry would likely be the front-runner, facing opposition from Edwards and possibly Dick Gephardt too but handily winning the Democratic Nomination.
 
Note, Wesley Clark, was talking about running for POTUS while he was still EUCOM Actual. He (being a "close personal" friend of the Clintons expected their organization to support.., him) Of course this was before President Clinton fired him... That said, as long 9/11 happens he's going to run (and a lot of former subordinates are going to be talking/venting to the Press...).

AS for the original questions, without the Iraq invasion, they'll likely focus more than they did OTL on; 9/11, "Bush let it happen...", mis-managing Afghanistan, AND blaming the Bush administration for NOT resolving the Iraq situation... (remember Northern and Southern Watch, Oil for Food and the associated Oil smuggling... no invasion means all that's still going on). I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats also claim Iraq did help AQ, with no invasion, Iraq will still be the favorite retirement location of Senior-citizen-wanted Terrorists and the world number 1 provide of counterfeit Passports, US dollars and other papers/IDs.

Break, the one thing most forget when the "What if no Iraq invasion question" is raised, is that Iraq was a problem and issue before we invaded.... Remember the actors, activists, leftist politicians who spent the late 90s 2000-03 traveling to Iraq to complain about the "starving children"... and how it was the U.S./U.K.'s fault, and get their suitcase of cash!

Something was going to come to a head (Allied Pilot(s) shot down and captured, a fire fight on an Oil (and/or weapons) smuggler..... And if it's 2003-04 it will be the biggest impact the election....
 
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If the focus remains on National Security and Terrorism, Bush wins and has an easier time than OTL. If the Democrats exploit the weak economic recovery from the dotcom bust and shift the focus to domestic policy they could eek out a win.
 
If the Democrats exploit the weak economic recovery from the dotcom bust and shift the focus to domestic policy they could eek out a win.

In that case, President Kerry is in a really bad situation. The economic crisis is still going to take off in 2007, and with the Congress in GOP hands he'll be unable to pass any kind of stabilizing measure aside from maybe the same kind of bailout that took Bush twice to push through a Democratically controlled Congress. McCain would probably win in 2008, but given how poorly he responded to the crisis as a candidate then he probably would fumble on the economy and become a one termer like Kerry.

43. George W. Bush (2001-2005), R-TX
44. John Kerry (2005-2009), D-MA
45. John McCain (2009-2013), R-AZ
46. Barack Obama (Since 2013), D-IL
 
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