The 1988 Presidential Election and Beyond

So! This is my new TL.

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3 March 1987 -- New Woodward Article Alleges Reagan Had Knowledge of Iran-Contra
Based on interviews with Oliver North and Cap Weinberger, among others, Bob Woodward has published an article which could bring down a President. He quotes North and Weinberger as saying that Ronald Reagan knew of the highly illegal Iran-Contra affair. The President denies this, though he admits his massive negligence. North also says that Vice President Bush was in the loop, which could damage the seemingly impenetrable front-runner in the upcoming Republican Primary race.

11 May 1987 -- New Polls Released in Democratic and Republican Races
After Gary Hart has dropped out of the Democratic race, new polls were released, not counting undecideds. Dale Bumpers has taken the lead in the Democratic race. Bob Dole leads on the Republican side.

Democratic
Dale Bumpers: 20%
Al Gore: 18%
Michael Dukakis: 15%
Jesse Jackson: 13%
Paul Simon: 13%
Joe Biden: 11%
Dick Gephardt: 10%

Republican
Bob Dole: 20%
Lowell Weicker: 15%
George Bush: 14%
Tom Kean: 13%
Howard Baker: 12%
Jack Kemp: 10%
Richard Lugar: 9%
Paul Laxalt: 7%

George Bush has been hurt hugely by Iran-Contra, and some say he may drop out soon.

22 May 1987 -- Simon, Lugar Win Debates
In recent debates, Paul Simon has come out the victor on the Democratic side, while Dick Lugar has for the Republicans. Simon is a consistent liberal who believes in a balanced budget amendment. He has been gaining in popularity among Democratic voters. Lugar is a strong conservative Senator, loved by the center of the party. He does not seem to have any possibility of winning. In these debates, the front-runners performed forgettably, with Bumpers, Dole, and Gore all having bad performances.

25 May 1987 -- Bush: I'm Not Dropping Out
Vice President Bush said today that he will continue fighting for the nomination. Even though he is in third place in recent polls, he vows to win the Presidency anyway.

It sucks, but will hopefully get better.
 
I've been expecting this. Needless to say: I'm interested. As someone who spent hours of research on this for my 1988 Timeline...I'm looking forward to it.
 
1 June 1987 -- New Polling
Both fields have tightened considerably.

Democratic
Dale Bumpers: 17%
Michael Dukakis: 17%
Al Gore: 16%
Paul Simon: 15%
Jesse Jackson: 13%
Joe Biden: 12%
Dick Gephardt: 10%

Paul Simon has gone up in the polls, as has Michael Dukakis. Any of these men could win the Presidency.

Republican
Bob Dole: 17%
Tom Kean: 16%
Lowell Weicker: 15%
George Bush: 12%
Howard Baker: 12%
Jack Kemp: 11%
Richard Lugar: 10%
Paul Laxalt: 7%

Bush has dropped even further.

General Election
Generic Democrat: 47%
Generic Republican: 38%
Undecided/Other: 15%

The situation is bad for the Republicans.

11 June 1987 -- Kean Wins Debate
Tom Kean, who had already been surging, won a debate on the Republican side. Bush performed badly, as did Kemp. Weicker did well too, but Dole was forgettable. Lugar and Baker did not appear at the debate. Neither did Laxalt.

BREAKING -- LAXALT DROPS OUT, ENDORSES BAKER
Paul Laxalt, who had been polling steadily in last place, has dropped out of the race. This comes as no surprise. The surprise is that he endorsed Howard Baker instead of George Bush.

16 June 1987 -- Insider: Reagan Mad About Laxalt Endorsement
According to an insider source in the administration who wishes to remain anonymous, President Reagan is angry that Paul Laxalt endorsed Howard Baker, instead of Bush as was expected.

BREAKING: BUSH DROPS OUT!
Vice President Bush has dropped out of the race for President. In light of recent damage done to him by the Iran-Contra Scandal, he's been polling in the middle of the field.

25 June 1987 -- Reagan Blocks Further Investigation Into Iran-Contra
President Reagan today said that he would veto a bill passed by both houses of Congress, which would set up another investigation of the President's possible role in Iran-Contra. This action has already been roundly criticized by the Democratic candidates, who are sure to gain from it. Reagan's approval rating is down to 36%. Can the Teflon President survive this one?

27 June 1987 -- Simon Wins Debate
Paul Simon won the second Democratic debate as well as the first. He hopes to distinguish himself from the field. Bumpers didn't do well, and neither did Gephardt, who is expected to drop out soon.

1 July 1987 -- New Polls Released

Democratic
Michael Dukakis: 17%
Dale Bumpers: 16%
Paul Simon: 16%
Al Gore: 15%
Jesse Jackson: 15%
Joe Biden: 13%
Dick Gephardt: 8%

Republican
Bob Dole: 20%
Tom Kean: 19%
Lowell Weicker: 18%
Howard Baker: 18%
Jack Kemp: 13%
Richard Lugar: 12%

General Election
Generic Democrat: 50%
Generic Republican: 34%
Undecided/Other: 16%
 
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5 July 1987 -- Call For a Vote of Censure Introduced
A call for a vote of censure on President Reagan was introduced yesterday. It could gather traction, as more is revealed about his alleged illegal actions in Iran-Contra.

BREAKING: GEPHARDT DROPS OUT; ENDORSES BUMPERS
Dick Gephardt, citing recent low polling numbers, has dropped out of the race for the Presidency, endorsing fellow moderate Dale Bumpers. "I know that we need someone to put this nation back together, and I know that Dale is that someone," said Gephardt. This endorsement could give Bumpers the momentum he needs to get ahead of Dukakis and get momentum.

13th July 1987 -- Gore Wins Debate
Al Gore could be a front-runner again, if his masterful debate performance is any indication. Paul Simon was also good, but Bumpers and Dukakis were not.
 
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