The 1981 Spanish Coup Works?

MacCaulay

Banned
I was just wondering what folks think might have happened had the coup plotters managed to keep their crap together and make things a bit more well planned, like capturing and/or assassinating the King, or if he hadn't been alive at the time.

What would've the consequences been had Spain jumped to a military dictatorship in 1981?
 

Goldstein

Banned
I was just wondering what folks think might have happened had the coup plotters managed to keep their crap together and make things a bit more well planned, like capturing and/or assassinating the King, or if he hadn't been alive at the time.

What would've the consequences been had Spain jumped to a military dictatorship in 1981?

It wouldn't be necessary something as far-fetched as capturing or killing the king. If some additional key figure betrays the king and supports the coup until the end and becomes more coordinated, that would work. Setting aside how the king would have reacted (some say he was planning to flee, and I have strong reasons to believe that), the plotters would have gone ahead with or without the king.

What would come later? The plan was, if I recall correctly, creating some kind of national concentration movement, with the "white elefant" as a main head of state (probabily someone like Milans del Bosch or Torres Rojas, we still don't even know who the hell he actually was), and prosecuting the Basque Nationalist, as well as the Communist elements, who still got some political force at the time. What could be expected? If the Basque Conflict was nasty IOTL, state terrorism would reach new levels ITTL, but also directed at leftist groups. I can perfectly picture it as an European version of the rightist dictatorships of Latin America at the time, but without the strategical support of the Western Powers (Reagan condemned the coup, and Thatcher bluntly called it a terrorist act), and with a strong paliamentary makeup. No NATO entrance, definitely no EEC entrance and no Olympic games. It's hard to say how much would it last, but maybe until they screw up national interests very obviously, as in Argentina.

I don't know which effects this would have overall, but it would surely be catastrophic for Spain. After the regime, probabily a third republic would emerge, and Basque and Catalan independence wouldn't look out of place. Spain's EU membership would be substantially delayed, assuming it would happen. Mybe, far left terrorist groups like GRAPO would be still operating.
 
It wouldn't be necessary something as far-fetched as capturing or killing the king. If some additional key figure betrays the king and supports the coup until the end and becomes more coordinated, that would work. Setting aside how the king would have reacted (some say he was planning to flee, and I have strong reasons to believe that), the plotters would have gone ahead with or without the king.
Juan Carlos wanted to see how things developed and for a while kept open 3 main options -
(1) Successful coup - present himself to the plotters as Franco's anointed
(2) Successful coup - flee and become a figurehead in exile
(3) Faltering/unsuccessful coup - tell the armed forces to keep discipline and stay out of politics.

Option (1) was most unlikely to be beneficial to the King given (in the plotters' eyes) his abandonment of Francoist ideas
Option (2) was quite possible throughout the period
Option (3) was the chosen route when he'd seen the way the domestic and international winds were blowing.

In short, the plotters didn't need Juan Carlos.
 
The coup was doomed the moment the commander of the Brunete Armoured Division decided he was not really sure he wanted to support the coup. The Brunete was the only fully armoured unit in the army, equipped with the most modern tanks and was headquartered near Madrid. Had someone else been in charge, there would have been tanks in the streets of the capital by dawn of February 24, and then whatever the King did would matter little.

What would've the consequences been had Spain jumped to a military dictatorship in 1981?

Very bad. Bad enough that an hypotethical civil war would actually be the best case scenario because it would have forced the world's democracies to act this time.

Spanish history between 1808 and 1960 can be summarized as everything got worse. The return to democracy in the second half of the 70's was to many the opportunity to take Spain out of a centuries-long hole of backwardness. A succesful coup would have killed that in the cradle and convinced many spaniards that Spain and democracy are incompatible terms.
 
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