The 1929 crash 18 months earlier?

Could the Stock Market crash and the depression have started in the Spring of 1928?

Several thoughts mostly Anglo American political

The Conservatives would clearly have lost the 1929 election massively (they could technically have perhaps postponed it to January 1930 but with no advantage to themselves)

I think that Lloyd George's "We can conquer unemployment" proto Keynsian programme might have triumphed

Would Al Smith have been nominated and elected. How would he have responded to the crisis?

Does this abort or speed up the Nazi takeover in Germany?

Any consequences in Japan?
 
Derek Jackson said:
Could the Stock Market crash and the depression have started in the Spring of 1928?
Perfectly possible--but I'd want to know why the Federal Reserve decides the market is getting out of hand & raises the rediscount rate, when it didn't OTL. (This is the proximate cause of the Crash.)
Derek Jackson said:
I think that Lloyd George's "We can conquer unemployment" proto Keynsian programme might have triumphed
Conceivable.
Derek Jackson said:
Would Al Smith have been nominated and electe.
Not a chance.:rolleyes: Catholic &, AFAIK, an indifferent campaigner--two fatal strikes against.
 
Well, Coolidge would get the blame, as he should have in OTL. I think that a Democrat (not Smith, he was a sacrifical candidate) could easily win 1928.
 
Turquoise Blue said:
Well, Coolidge would get the blame, as he should have in OTL. I think that a Democrat (not Smith, he was a sacrifical candidate) could easily win 1928.
Agree on the first. IMO, Smith might have had a prayer, under the circumstances; the Democrats could practically have nominated a monkey & beaten Coolidge, after the Crash.:p

I disagree it would be any easier, unless the response is also different: Smoot-Hawley sparked off a wave of protectionism which made things worse. Then there's the Dust Bowl, which is going to happen no matter what...

That being true, what does the new PotUS do in response? Does he put a floor under wages? (The idea was to support buying power...but it inflated costs, too.) Does he address over-production? (This was a big, big problem, since there was a lunatic theory in vogue at the time OTL, which amounted to, "If you produce it, they will buy".:eek::confused::confused: That clearly didn't work...:rolleyes:) Does he insist on a balanced budget? (This was the mania for all parties in North American politics at the time OTL--& it inhibited the federal government's ability to respond.:rolleyes:)
 
President McAdoo leads us ably through the Depression, before stepping aside in 1936...I don't know who'd step up at that point. Governor FDR? Vice President Nellie Ross? Heh, more likely Vice President Joseph Robinson? Speaker Garner? Senator Huey Long? Speaker Garner? It would be interesting.
 
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