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So for something I'm working on, I need the Falklands Crisis in 1770 to escalate into a war, so I need help figuring out how it would play out. I'm not an expert, but how does this sound:
In Europe, the RN is able to keep the Bourbon fleets in port, preventing them from converging. Spain begins a siege of Gibraltar, but is unsuccessful, while Britain conquers Corsica.
In North America and the Caribbean, Spanish forces are mostly able to repeal British attacks.
In South America, however, Britain invades and captures both Buenos Aires and Montevideo.
The war ends around 1772, and then in the Peace of (London?):
Britain gives back Corsica and cedes Gibraltar to Spain, in exchange, Spain and France cede all of Hispaniola to Britain.
Spain cedes the River Plate basin to Britain. Britain establishes it's own colony based off Buenos Aires there.
How plausible is that? And what would be the consequences in the short term, especially regarding the American Independence War a few years down the line?