The 1770 Falklands War

So for something I'm working on, I need the Falklands Crisis in 1770 to escalate into a war, so I need help figuring out how it would play out. I'm not an expert, but how does this sound:

  • In Europe, the RN is able to keep the Bourbon fleets in port, preventing them from converging. Spain begins a siege of Gibraltar, but is unsuccessful, while Britain conquers Corsica.
  • In North America and the Caribbean, Spanish forces are mostly able to repeal British attacks.
  • In South America, however, Britain invades and captures both Buenos Aires and Montevideo.
The war ends around 1772, and then in the Peace of (London?):
  • Britain gives back Corsica and cedes Gibraltar to Spain, in exchange, Spain and France cede all of Hispaniola to Britain.
  • Spain cedes the River Plate basin to Britain. Britain establishes it's own colony based off Buenos Aires there.
How plausible is that? And what would be the consequences in the short term, especially regarding the American Independence War a few years down the line?
 
Britain gives back Corsica and cedes Gibraltar to Spain, in exchange, Spain and France cede all of Hispaniola to Britain

France will give up it's golden goose colony when Britain prys it out of their cold dead hands. Saint-Dominique is one of the most profitable peices of real estate on earth at this point.
 
Overly optimistic for Britain. They don't want to fight another huge global war so soon after the previous one, which was extremely expensive. Also, they are having trouble finding allies in this (post-1763) era, and the French/Spanish navies are being rebuilt and the gap between the British and them is smaller now. If there is war the British will have more limited aims.

For Corsica, 1770 is too probably late to intervene ; France has brought the island to submission by then (and is still occupying with its army). The moment was in 1768 or early 69 when French control was not secure.

Saint-Domingue is by far France's most valuable colony and the last one they would concede. It's their most fortified possession and the British were not able to occupy it in the previous war (in contrast to Guadeloupe/Martinique). British are probably going to aim for easier colonies to capture.

If Gibraltar is at risk of being captured, the British are not going to go on an adventure in South America ; they will defend their colony first.
 
France would probably cede Corsica before they cede Hispaniola and Britain would probably sooner relinquish conquests in the Southern Cone than give up Gibraltar.
 
I think you're a little too generous to the Brits, a little too harsh on Spain/France. S/F weren't quite ready for the war they wanted (hence why the spark didn't ignite war OTL), but they weren't going to be pushovers, either.

This is also going to involve the British colonies. They're boiling up to the point of revolution. They're going to push for major concessions, likely some open rebellion. OTL, the revolution is already taking root, so you can't ignore it. Spain/France will look to exploit this and fan the flames. North America will be a hotspot.

Spain is going to look to retake Florida, and the British colonies are not going to be happy with the costs/manpower to defend it.

Britain will look to take New Orleans before they adventure to South America. It's the key to central North America and Britain might look to divert colonist attention to their west. might backfire if Britain doesn't ease up on the restrictions of the line of proclamation. Colonists are going to be upset if Britain imposes on them to support war efforts there and they're going to be upset if Britain doesn't try to take spanish Louisiana. A damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

Don't forget the European homefront. Britain will have to stay home to protect against invasion. Another reason Britain will not be so aggressive around the globe. Buenos Aires is not of strategic/tactical importance, and is not all that valuable. It's too overextended for any major effort.

Portugal might get involved. They were having a squabble with Spain around that timeframe over la plata. In that case, Britain might find an ally who is going to require resources to defend. Perhaps another invasion from Spain? If Spain has learned any lessons from their disaster in the 7 yrs war, it could go badly for Portugal.

This could be a short war, with a little push and shove, but not total war, in which case your scenario is a little aggressive. Or it could be the start of something big, in which case it's going to drag on for 3 or 4 or more years.
 
So from responses so far, how about:

  • Britain uses RN to keep Bourbon combined fleet in port.
  • Nonetheless, Spain threatens Gibraltar.
  • Britain is too concerned with it's North American colonies, and the European front. They send a rather limited force to the Falklands.
  • Britain regains the Falklands, or is defeated by Spanish forces in the area.
  • War ends with no changes on territory other than Falklands depending on result of the battle.
Or maybe even Britain backs down after it sees France has Spain's back, precisely because of concerns with the North Americans?
 
Last edited:
the Bourbon fleet is needed to besiege Gibraltar. Gibraltar is basically inaccessible by land. there's no landing forces by sea. The only way to threaten it is to starve it into submission by denying Britain the ability to resupply it. That requires Spanish/French naval ability.

The Bourbons will also have Caribbean fleets.

After the Corsica Crisis, I don't think Britain can back down if Spain/France decide to push the matter. It would be a second major slap in the face.

With a rather inconclusive war, I wonder if France/Spain would be so eager to back the Patriots if the American Revolution goes on as OTL. F/S are still going to want to knock Britain down a peg, but having just spent resources and not gotten anywhere, they might decide a hot war is not a good idea.
 
So for something I'm working on, I need the Falklands Crisis in 1770 to escalate into a war, so I need help figuring out how it would play out. I'm not an expert, but how does this sound:

  • In Europe, the RN is able to keep the Bourbon fleets in port, preventing them from converging. Spain begins a siege of Gibraltar, but is unsuccessful, while Britain conquers Corsica.
  • In North America and the Caribbean, Spanish forces are mostly able to repeal British attacks.
  • In South America, however, Britain invades and captures both Buenos Aires and Montevideo.
The war ends around 1772, and then in the Peace of (London?):
  • Britain gives back Corsica and cedes Gibraltar to Spain, in exchange, Spain and France cede all of Hispaniola to Britain.
  • Spain cedes the River Plate basin to Britain. Britain establishes it's own colony based off Buenos Aires there.
How plausible is that? And what would be the consequences in the short term, especially regarding the American Independence War a few years down the line?


Fairly plausible, except for an two things;

1. Britain will give up Gibraltar when God himself descends from Heaven with an army of angels and forces them to give it up.

2. France will
give up Gibraltar, I mean Sant Domainge, when God himself descends from Heaven with an army of angels and forces them to give it up.
 
Fairly plausible, except for an two things;

1. Britain will give up Gibraltar when God himself descends from Heaven with an army of angels and forces them to give it up.

2. France will
give up Gibraltar, I mean Sant Domainge, when God himself descends from Heaven with an army of angels and forces them to give it up.
Britain was willing to give up Gibraltar in exchange for Spain giving aid in getting back Menorca in the early stages of the seven years war. Spain didn't want to get involved in the war, so they didn't accept the offer. Britain only really got attached to it after spending a lot of resources defending it in the Spanish part of the American revolution.

I think Spain has to take it (a tough row to hoe) or take a British possession to trade for it, but Gibraltar at the time was not the valuable gem to Britain that it became later.
 
Top