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How does this look as a possible senario;

November 1990 - Thatcher clings on in the first round of the Conservative leadership election by 1 vote. Her authority is damaged,but she vows to fight and win a fourth general election.

January 1991 - Thatcher orders British troops into war in the Gulf. The tory supporting press back her, but Labour remain ahead in the opinion polls.

March 1991 - John Major gives his second budget. He suggests to the Prime Minister the idea of a 2.5% rise in VAT to pay for tempoary reductions in the Community Charge for the duration of the economic dowturn. After a bitter cabinet battle Major gives in to Thatchers oposition to this and instead reduces income tax to 24% payed for by an increase in already high government borrowing. This is seen by the press as a desperate attempt to improve the Conservatives standing in the polls.

May 1991 - The Conservatives get just 23% of the vote in district council election in England and Wales. The Conservatives lose councils such as Lichfield and Traford to Labour and Tunbridge Wells to the Liberal Democrats. This is a major embarisment for the Conservatives and questions start to be asked yet again about Thatchers ability to lead her party.

Thatcher re-shuffles her cabinet and promotes right winger John Redwood to the cabinet as Chief Secretery to the Tresuary. Norman Lamont turns down a life peerage and the job of leader of the House of Lords and resigns to the backbenches in protest.

Just days later, Michael Heseltine challeges Mrs Thatcher for the part leadership for a second time. He wins the support of most of the left of the party and close cabinet collegues such as John Major and Douglas Hurd convince her that her time is up and it would be better for her to leave now.

She agrees and anounces her departure the following day in a press conference in the Downing Street garden. There will be an unusually long six week campaign period leading upto the vote which Thatcher says will give the party time to decide the direction it wants to take in the run up to the election.

However, the tories are still 15% behind Labour in the polls.

June 1991 - Michael Heseltine, John Major and John Redwood fight the leadership election. Redwood withdraws after a week because of limited support and declairs his support for Major. In the end, Heseltine gets 40% of the vote (mainly from the centre and left of the paty), but Major is seen as the candidate who can best unite the party and continue some of Mrs Thatchers more popular policies. Hesletine decides not to force a second balot and John Major becomes Prime Minister in mid June 1991.
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