Thatcher: How far could she have gone?

Some feel that Thatcher's downfall in 1990 came perhaps too early (or too late). What would be the latest possible date for her resignation, with relatively acceptable PODs and nothing too ASB. Maybe, if she somehow survived November/December 1990, or the putsch never happened in the first place, she would have contested and won the 1991 general election, and left midway through her fourth term, perhaps 1994? She would have preferred to have left on her own terms, that's for sure.

But could she have lasted until 1997? She would have been 72, but then again, Reagan became president age 70. Obviously, governing after 1997 wouldn't be feasible since I think this country would desire a change after 18 years of the same prime minister, let alone same party.

Finally, who would see have backed as new leader? This of course would depend on whether her resignation came out of her own personal choice, or whether it followed electoral defeat.
 
If she survives the leadership election against Heseltine in 1990, she's just going to get challenged again in 1991. Party discipline had collapsed, many MPs were incredibly fearful that they would lose their seats if she continued as leader and the press was determined to bring her down. I don't think that she can survive until a general election, and if she did, she would most likely be defeated quite comfortably.
 
As I recall, she wanted to stay on until 1995 at the very latest. But winning 1991 is ASB unless you butterfly away the Poll Tax, which involves having Maggie go towards Council Tax like Nigel Lawson preferred, maybe keep Ian Gow alive to keep Howe's resignation from being as destructive as it was to Thatcher.

I'm of the camp that she could have won the leadership contest in a first round basis if her camp campaigned a bit more and didn't adopt the "I've won you elections and been around for a while so vote for me" strategy and rally the voting base but she will go down as more MPs rebel against her, though if you got an organised membership movement to "convince" MPs to stay true then you could but it would poison the waters between them and not stop 1991 from being a Labour victory.

Thatcher may have been able to convince more people to back her as people decide to not vote Labour but the best she can get is a hung Parliament with a Labour Party off by ten seats.
 
If she doesn't resign when she did then the Tories would have lost the '92 election regardless of the result of the Gulf War. Unfortunately that would have meant Neil Kinnock as Prime Minister so Tories back in by 1997 and out again a few years later.
 
If she had won the contest in 1990 she would have resided over a fractious and disunited party. There's a good chance she would have been oused in 1991. I don't the she could have held on to call an election in 1992. Had she gone to the country in 1991 the tories would have lost. The economy the poll tax and disunity would have seen them out and Kinnock in with a small majority.

What happens in 1996 then depends
 
If she doesn't resign when she did then the Tories would have lost the '92 election regardless of the result of the Gulf War.

The only thing I would say for her is that she would most likely capitalise on the Gulf War more than Major was able to, but I don't see it saving her at the election. Maybe enough to nudge it into hung parliament territory though.
 
All I can see is, if she manages to beat Heseltine in 1990, she either:

a) Faces another challenger in 1991 who will probably oust her or:
b) Goes to the country and loses to Kinnock

She can't get past 1991 as PM without some major changes PRE 1990 (like no poll tax).
 
Top