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Thatcher’s last stand.
Part 1
November 1990.
There were differences within the Cabinet over Thatcher's perceived intransigence in her approach to the European Economic Community — in particular many leading Conservatives wanted Britain to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism, a move which Thatcher did not favour.
In 1989 the then Foreign Secretary Sir Geoffrey Howe and Chancellor Nigel Lawson forced Thatcher to agree to the "Madrid Conditions", namely that Britain would eventually join the ERM "when the time was right". In July 1989 she retaliated by removing Howe from the Foreign Office, moving him to Deputy Prime Minister. Lawson - who had clashed with Thatcher over "shadowing the Deutschemark" early in 1988 - then resigned as Chancellor in October 1989, unable to accept Thatcher taking independent advice from the economist Alan Walters.
The beneficiary of these moves was the hitherto-unknown John Major, who briefly succeeded Howe as Foreign Secretary before succeeding Lawson as Chancellor. In October 1990 Major and Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd finally obtained agreement from a reluctant Thatcher that Britain should join the ERM.
In her Party Conference Speech early in October, Thatcher mocked the Liberal Democrats' new "bird" logo in language lifted from the famous "Monty Python" "Dead Parrot" sketch. This looked more than slightly foolish when the Liberal Democrats captured a seat off the Conservatives at the Eastbourne by-election (caused by the assassination of Ian Gow by the IRA at the end of July) on 18 October.
The event normally seen as the 'final straw' in the run-up to the contest is the resignation of the Deputy Prime Minister, Sir Geoffrey Howe, on 1 November. This was a response to comments by Thatcher in the House of Commons on 31 October, when she criticised the vision of European integration, including a Single Currency, espoused by the European Commission under Jacques Delors, characterising it as the path to a federal European superstate, and famously declared that her response to such a vision would be "No. No. No" (In June 1990 Chancellor Major had suggested that the proposed Single European Currency should be a "hard ecu", competing for use against existing national currencies; this idea was not in the end adopted).
Howe did not make his resignation speech immediately because he had temporarily lost his voice. At the Lord Mayor's Banquet on 12 November Thatcher dismissed Howe's resignation by employing a cricketing metaphor: I am still at the crease, though the bowling has been pretty hostile of late. And in case anyone doubted it, can I assure you there will be no ducking the bouncers, no stonewalling, no playing for time. The bowling's going to get hit all round the ground. That is my style.
The next day, Howe made his resignation speech from the backbenches, addressing his dismay at her approach and, famously responding to Thatcher's cricketing metaphor by employing one of his own. Explaining how, in his opinion, her approach made it hard for British ministers to negotiate for Britain's interests in Europe he declared:
It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain.
Howe reinforced the change in general perception of Thatcher from the 'Iron Lady' to a divisive and confrontational figure. Within a week, another critic, former minister Michael Heseltine, had announced that he would challenge her for the leadership of the party.
Under the rules at the time, introduced in 1965 and modified in 1975, there would be a series of ballots, conducted by the 1922 Committee, with that committee's chairman, Cranley Onslow, serving as Returning Officer.
In the first round a candidate needed to win the backing of an absolute majority of MPs. In addition they needed to have a margin over their nearest rival of 15% of the total electorate. This latter rule had been modified from 15% of those voting in the 1975 review and was to prove a crucial distinction in the 1990 contest when Margaret Thatcher narrowly missed this new target.
If neither candidate achieved a sufficiently large majority, then a second ballot would take place the following week. Nominations would be re-opened, and at this stage an absolute majority only would be required. If this did not happen, then the top three candidates would go forward to a third round which would be held using the alternative vote system.
Because of this process, the first round was widely regarded as the real test of confidence in Thatcher. Many speculated that, if she did not achieve outright victory, then she would either be forced to step down and open up the field to others or else suffer further challenges from heavyweight figures in the party. Although Heseltine was known to be a serious contender for the leadership in his own right, many saw him also fulfilling the role of a "stalking horse" to push Thatcher out and pave the way for victory by a third candidate in a later round. First ballot
The first ballot in the election took place on Tuesday 20 November 1990. Thatcher herself was at the Fontainebleau European summit on the night of the contest and therefore voted by proxy, perhaps anticipating a better result than she actually achieved.
Although receiving the support of a clear majority of MPs, Thatcher narrowly failed to achieve a lead over Heseltine that comprised at least 15% of the number of all Conservative MPs, abstentions and spoilt ballots included. (Had the contest been run on the pre 1975 rules, she would have won outright at this stage.) The contest therefore had to move into a second ballot. Thatcher gave a short statement in Paris following the announcement of the result, declaring that she intended to contest the second ballot, and on her return to London declared "I fight on; I fight to win."
Hurd and Major pledged their support, as did Cecil Parkinson, Kenneth Baker and ex-Cabinet minister Nicholas Ridley. Norman Tebbit, another ex-Cabinet minister, was part of her campaign team, along with John Wakeham. Thatcher's campaign manager, Peter Morrison, advised her to consult Cabinet members one by one. Cabinet ministers had decided before consulting Thatcher the line they would each take: though they personally would support her in the second ballot, they thought that she would lose. Peter Lilley, William Waldegrave, John Gummer and Chris Patten stuck to this line. Kenneth Clarke, the Secretary of State for Education, famously became the first of her ministers to advise her that she could not win but that he would support her as Prime Minister for another five or ten years. Malcolm Rifkind said she would not win and was unsure whether he could support her in the second ballot. Peter Brooke said he would support Thatcher whatever she chose to do and that she could win "with all guns blazing". Michael Howard doubted whether she could win but said he would campaign full-heartedly for her.
Enoch Powell announces that he will rejoin the party – which he had left in February 1974 over the issue of Europe – if Thatcher wins, and would urge the public to support both her and, in Powell's view, national independence. He writes to one of Thatcher's supporters, Norman Tebbit, telling him Thatcher was entitled to use his name and his support in any way she saw fit.
Second ballot
The second round of voting would take place on Tuesday 27 November 1990. Thatcher decides to fight on and at the behest of Norman Tebbit, Neil Hamilton and others phones round a large number of Conservative MP’s to tally support.
The result
Margaret Thatcher 224 votes Michael Heseltine 153 votes Abstentions 1. Void Spoilt 2. Majority 71 Turnout 379
Thatcher was still Conservative party leader but Heseltine and the Tory left still had a great deal of support.
Thatcher’s first thoughts would now turn to increasing her support in the cabinet.
As the month ended opinion polls still had the Conservatives behind Labour by 8%.