Thailand's red shirt protests develop into insurgency ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_military_crackdown#Timeline

There was quite a bit of speculation in the media during the protests in Bangkok two years back, and amongst the "red shirt" protesters themselves about the possibilty of civil war, or even mounting a guerilla fight from the northern jungles in Thailand against the "yellow shirt" government.

A General in the Thai Army even defected to the protesters side, but took a snipers bullet to the head soon after. IF he hadnt been killed, could he have taken his hardline supporters and started an insurgency ?

What was the chances that such a conflict have broken out ?
 
Any insurgency would've been put down very quickly. Once a few lives are lost, the others would lay down their weapons and go back to look after their families.
The army aren't big lovers of the red shirts at the moment and they tend to throw a hissy fit whenever they feel they are threatened (hency why they overthrew Thaksin).
 
If the Red Shirt movement developed into anything violent, you might well see a backsliding of Thai democracy - the chances of anyone allowing Thaksin Shinawatra's sister to win the next elections would be slim. Of course, electoral fraud or dictatorship could just increase support for the insurgents.
 
The army would crackdown very brutally.
Whenever something doesn't go the way they like it they just claim they're protecting the king and portraying the violent red shirts as anti-monarchy would be very easy.
 
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