Thailand vs Vietnam and Laos

What if the conflict escalated in to a full scale war?
Who would win?
Would the US intervine to support its ally?
 
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Thai–Laotian Border War

What if the conflict escalated in to a full scale war?
Who would win?
Would the US intervine to support its ally?

Laotian Army would probably win. Thailand has a very corrupt and
sorry military and will remain such until people are desperate.

US would intervene as Reagan is assumed to be president in TL POD.
Most bomb tonage overwhelming was flown from Thailand during
the Vietnam war, not as force fed to the media gullet from GVSN or
Guam. The president of Thailand (PM?) asked us to leave in 1976 to
accomodate the newly communist neighbors.

But expect some territory to be lost, as akin 1963 India/PRC conflict.
Worthless acres and not tankable. But US assisted incursions across
the Mekong would be a ready threat as something about half of Lao
population live 30 miles from the river/Thai border, including the main
capital.


Try this link as the other does not work. Also be advised that
some googled results have virus indicated, in my recent experience.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai–Laotian_Border_War
 

Cook

Banned
Laotian Army would probably win. Thailand has a very corrupt and sorry military and will remain such until people are desperate.

The Lao Army is just an appendix of the Vietnamese Army and contrary to some opinions here the Thai Army has a significant capability and level of training.

Unfortunately they have had a history of Coups but have at all times remained loyal to the King and more than capable of countering external threats.
 
Laotian Army would probably win. Thailand has a very corrupt and
sorry military and will remain such until people are desperate.

US would intervene as Reagan is assumed to be president in TL POD.
Most bomb tonage overwhelming was flown from Thailand during
the Vietnam war, not as force fed to the media gullet from GVSN or
Guam. The president of Thailand (PM?) asked us to leave in 1976 to
accomodate the newly communist neighbors.

But expect some territory to be lost, as akin 1963 India/PRC conflict.
Worthless acres and not tankable. But US assisted incursions across
the Mekong would be a ready threat as something about half of Lao
population live 30 miles from the river/Thai border, including the main
capital.


Try this link as the other does not work. Also be advised that
some googled results have virus indicated, in my recent experience.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai–Laotian_Border_War

I don't think so, at that time, the capabilities and the number of Laotian military force was inferior comparing to Thai forces (eventhough that Thai leaders and military was corrupted at that time and are still today) Also, Thai forces would probably recieved supports in term of weapons and supplies form the US. Also, the capital city of Laos, Vientiane, is closed to Thai borders; so if Thai military forces decided to invade Vientiane, they attack right away; whereas Bangkok is very far away from the border. However, if Vietnamese forces decided to invade Thailand through Laos, then Thai forces would faced some serious troubles, but Laos capital would probably fall before that.
 
Since the Vietnamese Army was also in Kampuchea at the time and had been conducting border raids into Thailand, wouldn't any larger war basically see Thailand v. Vietnam, Laos and Kampuchea?

Difficult to see how it would really get out of hand though. Thailand is sure to know that an escalation would involve the Indochinese trio as effectively one force. Not sure if the benefits (a few border towns and territories) would be worth the cost (going to full-scale war with Vietnam). For Vietnam it would seem even less beneficial - going to war with Thailand and possibly involving the US again over a few border towns and Cambodian rebel camps.
 
I don't think so, at that time, the capabilities and the number of Laotian military force was inferior comparing to Thai ---snip --very far away from the border. However, if Vietnamese forces decided to invade Thailand through Laos, then Thai forces would faced some serious troubles, but Laos capital would probably fall before that.

It might not be so easy.

I am under the idea that Lao is fighting a smaller war in the disputed region becomes a wider war still in that mountainous region. Isolated and mountainous, it is equally unlikely that Thailand would succeed in expanding the conflict in the years 1987-88 beyond the region without strong internal divisions, and there was considerable criticism out at the head general for going against the Foreign Mininstry's wishes in the border war. Lao had little to gain and lots to lose in a very large scale war, so I opted for a full blown mountainous war on the Laotian initiative. If Laos did that, probably with delusions of splitting off the many Laotian ethnics in northern Thailand as did Pol Pot with Southern Vietnam, then you would eventually be probably right. I doubt the Red Prince would try that, to be so rash with Laos. We might be polishing a very rusty nail, here, with the Thailand forces.

So many times in history, a larger clumsy force over extends itself and is devoured. Thai forces would need to cross the river first and establish an effective beach head, easier said than done for the way the Thai forces operate.

In 2008 or so (which coup, there have been so many) several days before my arrival in Bangkok the coup started. The tanks actually allowed if not encouraged tourists to climb up and a crew member would take the Farang's picture, the rest of the crew waving too. Very professional. I did not even know a coup happened until many days after being in the capital and leaving, never seeing any barbed wire or tanks. It is not a normal country, for good and ill. Never heard any tourists talking about it either, the action only lasting a day or two, no deaths. Saw some Laotian refugees being arrested, though. US at that time would have given full support for defensive, but not deeper incursions during an election year as 1988 was.

The wikipedia article mentions Vietnam did send troops within a few miles of the disputed region, to help its ally, especially in aviation. In a smaller scale battle inside high mountains, even Laos had far more experience and the upper hand, IMHO. Deep invasion accross the Mekong all but insures a very large Viet contingent even with the Cambodian misadventure. Vaguely similar to the 1970 US invasion, Vietnam might consider a few deep raids through the borders of Cambodia toward Bangkok, really stirring everyone's adrenaline. Khmer Rouge was able to harrass but not stop.
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Vietnam had assisted its communist ally, sending troops from the Second Vietnamese Infantry Division to Baan Nakok air field in Xaignabouli to support the Laotian military operations

The brief war claimed a total of about 1,000 casualties, the Thais suffering more heavily since for much of the war they were attacking entrenched Laotian positions. Gen. Chavalit Yongchaiyudh was the commander of the Royal Thai Army at the time of the war and was criticized for engaging in it against the wishes of the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs
 
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