Thailand in a CP victory TL

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
What are the forums thought on the development of Thailand in a CP victory?

If the Allies still snatch up the Central Power's Asia-Pacific possessions during the course of the war, the Germans probably won't be in a position to demand anything, especially if Japan is doing the snatching.

It occurs to me that Thailand might still fall to a militarist, revanchist, irredentist regime during a Great Depression analogue, which would still view Britain and France as having stolen their land for their Southeast Asian possessions.

Would such a Thailand be more likely to seek Germany's support or Japan's (or I guess even China's depending how Asia shakes out after WWI)? Would they get it? Could they actually succeed in taking back their previous territory in a local war or another world war?
 
Thailand will still fall to the militarists. To prevent that you need a POD further back. The problem (and still is) for Thailand is that the military will snatch power whenever they can. In this case King Parjidhipok made a small comment about not being a good ruler and the military used it as an excuse to snatch power.
Their activities though depends on the events in Europe. General Phibun who became PM and pretty much killed anyone who opposed him was a big admirer of Mussolini. In this tl he may find another European leader to admire and imitate.
Such a Thailand will ally with whoever they believe can help them achieve their goals. It would most likely be Japan as they might view the Germans (victorious or not) as another European power looking to steal their land.
 
The key figure, the pivot around which a Thai ATL would turn in a CP victory world, will be Prince Mahidol.

More so if his health takes a turn for thr better in this ATL world.
 
I didn't realise how much territory was taken from Siam in the 19th century. First step is for Thailand to declare war on the Central Powers in the first lace

Thailand was declared war on the Central Powers in 1917 and sent a small expeditionary force to France in 1918.

Then again if the war is going badly for the allies by then it probably wouldn't declare war in the first place...
 

BlondieBC

Banned
What are the forums thought on the development of Thailand in a CP victory?

If the Allies still snatch up the Central Power's Asia-Pacific possessions during the course of the war, the Germans probably won't be in a position to demand anything, especially if Japan is doing the snatching.

It occurs to me that Thailand might still fall to a militarist, revanchist, irredentist regime during a Great Depression analogue, which would still view Britain and France as having stolen their land for their Southeast Asian possessions.

Would such a Thailand be more likely to seek Germany's support or Japan's (or I guess even China's depending how Asia shakes out after WWI)? Would they get it? Could they actually succeed in taking back their previous territory in a local war or another world war?

If the CP win sometime in 1918 in a long war, Russia has collapsed. The Germans control parts of France and most of Belgium. The Germans have lost their colonies. I doubt the Germans will care that much about Asia, and if they want something back, it will be Tsingtao for emotional reasons. I doubt the Germans give much thought to Thailand or any parts of SE Asia. France will be absolutely crippled, and this is the bigger impact on the region. France may not be able to hold on to IndoChina if there is any native type revolt, and before France loses, it likely strips IndoChina of every last effective combat soldier. One square mile of sacred France is more valuable than 10,000 square miles of Asian jungle.

Japan is just moving into China and causing lots of waves. I don't think they go for IndoChina or Thailand before the Yellow River Basin or the Yangtze Basin. The UK will be absolutely broke, and will not be looking for additional colonial adventures. China will be dealing with Japan. So to me, it looks like whoever controls Thailand will be just an internal issue, so you go with the most powerful local forces.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Could we see Thailand grabbing French Indochina, Malaya, and parts of Burma in such a scenario?

I can see them having a shot at regaining parts of Indochina, but not the other two. France has been defeated and is partially occupied. The UK still rules the sea in most ATL, but is too weak to take Germany on land. Call it a draw.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
I can see them having a shot at regaining parts of Indochina, but not the other two. France has been defeated and is partially occupied. The UK still rules the sea in most ATL, but is too weak to take Germany on land. Call it a draw.

Which makes me wonder about the next war in Asia. If the US still declares an embargo against them due to their actions in China, Japan still decides they want the oil in DEI and other resources in SE Asia for themselves, and/or Japan gets some ideological bee in their bonnet about pushing the Europeans out of Asia, Thailand would again be a suitable regional ally in SE Asia and could very well grab approximately what they did OTL during WWII. Whether Britain could fight back alone or whether the US would get directly involved would depend on developments in other parts of the world.
 
Could we see Thailand grabbing French Indochina
Yes, I could that as a likely scenario. Not all of it obviously, Vietnam will almost certainly form if it can, but parts of Cambodia and Laos could definitely become Thai.

Highly doubtful. The British won't concede territory to the Thai, especially since the people of Malaya have no historical union with Siam.

, and parts of Burma in such a scenario?

Claims those in the Shan regions are not unbelievable, but being able to take land? No, I think the Shan would be one of those post-WW1 republics who received no recognition, but unofficial help from friendly powers.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Which makes me wonder about the next war in Asia. If the US still declares an embargo against them due to their actions in China, Japan still decides they want the oil in DEI and other resources in SE Asia for themselves, and/or Japan gets some ideological bee in their bonnet about pushing the Europeans out of Asia, Thailand would again be a suitable regional ally in SE Asia and could very well grab approximately what they did OTL during WWII. Whether Britain could fight back alone or whether the US would get directly involved would depend on developments in other parts of the world.

The butterflies kick in long before that and the analogy to our WW2. Like a lot of these, it depends a lot of why and how the CP win. I have been working on this for my TL, where I will need a second war to get the story to a good stopping place. If the win is because the USA did not enter WW1, then you will likely never get the close Anglo-American relationships and Japan can play off the USA v. British. And barring this, there is a strong Germany with a strong Navy to ally with. And in all scenarios. it is harder to get a naval limitation treaty, since there are more players to negotiate with about ship limits. And the UK will have a much larger navy. The white dominions were free loaders on the military budget, and a German win will put the fear of the Kaiser into them. There will be a lot more naval funds available (50% to 100%). Lot of different factors to play into the scenario and butterflies abound.

But if I had to place a bet, I would go with Japan would never expand beyond the Yangtze Basin and the oil would never be cut off. Japan will be allied with either Germany, USA or UK, and cutting them off will risk a general war. So it will not happen. And a stronger USA/UK navy will check expansion southward.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
And so a revanchist Thai regime may become aligned with whoever is against the British or is Thailand more likely to not get itself involved unless its patron is Japan (not at all a guarantee in itself if Japan doesnt have SE Asia interests)?
 
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