Thai-Vietnamese War?

Diplomatic relations between Thailand and Vietnam have been tense in the late 20th Century -Thailand having hosted U.S troops during the Vietnam War, Vietnam invading Cambodia, and a large amount of border conflicts left tensions high between the two countries.

What I'm wondering is: what if they went to war? What if Thailand sent troops into Cambodia to push out the Vietnamese and prop up their Khmer Rouge allies? How would it play out, who'd win (if anyone really could), and such.

And for the sake of argument, keep China out plz.
 
Probably the best chance is during the mid 1980's when the Vietnamese occupation is at its height.

Have the Vietnamese Army conduct several battalion plus raids into Thailand to destroy the Cambodian insurgents located on the border. From the OTL you had NGS, fast jet CAS, artillery engagements at a regimental level.. so not hard to make it hot.
 
Probably the best chance is during the mid 1980's when the Vietnamese occupation is at its height.

Have the Vietnamese Army conduct several battalion plus raids into Thailand to destroy the Cambodian insurgents located on the border. From the OTL you had NGS, fast jet CAS, artillery engagements at a regimental level.. so not hard to make it hot.

Indeed. But I'm wondering about the effects, mostly who wins and how screwed Cambodia is.
 
Short answer.

No one.

Longer answer - the Vietnamese have exceptionally long lines of logistics across contested country, with guerillas that could and did interdict their supplies. Within Cambodia itself their military cannot offer any support and the population is recovering from the devastation wrought from Year 0. A conflict during the mid 1980's will take impetus away from reforming their moribund economy, perhaps delaying their economic take off by several years.

The Cambodian occupation was expensive in blood and treasure, a war with Thailand will be even more so.

For the Thais this will be a war of defence and they will fight hard. Unfortunately for them a consequence of being successful here will mean that the Army has a higher standing and more than likely a greater influence in politics. So the move towards democratic reform and also economic liberalism will be hurt in TTL Thailand.

As for Cambodia, well this would be horrendous. Particularly after the Vietnamese and Thais leave imagine an Asian Somalia and you would be pretty close to the mark.

My 0.02c
 
Probably the best chance is during the mid 1980's when the Vietnamese occupation is at its height.

Have the Vietnamese Army conduct several battalion plus raids into Thailand to destroy the Cambodian insurgents located on the border. From the OTL you had NGS, fast jet CAS, artillery engagements at a regimental level.. so not hard to make it hot.

Early 1985 sounds about right.

If the Thai reports from that Febuary are correct (see: http://news.google.com/newspapers?n...kkjAAAAIBAJ&sjid=o84FAAAAIBAJ&pg=1287,7257852), the Vietnamese fired 4-6 rockets loaded with phosgene into Thailand. As I understand it, there weren't any casualties.

However, just imagine what would've happened if there had been mass civilian casualties....
 
Short answer.

No one.

Longer answer - the Vietnamese have exceptionally long lines of logistics across contested country, with guerillas that could and did interdict their supplies. Within Cambodia itself their military cannot offer any support and the population is recovering from the devastation wrought from Year 0. A conflict during the mid 1980's will take impetus away from reforming their moribund economy, perhaps delaying their economic take off by several years.

The Cambodian occupation was expensive in blood and treasure, a war with Thailand will be even more so.

For the Thais this will be a war of defence and they will fight hard. Unfortunately for them a consequence of being successful here will mean that the Army has a higher standing and more than likely a greater influence in politics. So the move towards democratic reform and also economic liberalism will be hurt in TTL Thailand.

As for Cambodia, well this would be horrendous. Particularly after the Vietnamese and Thais leave imagine an Asian Somalia and you would be pretty close to the mark.

My 0.02c

Good response IMO, but I'm not sure if you realized that that Thais would be invading Cambodia to fight/push out the Vietnamese and remove the threat to their boder... God Cambodia is screwed.


I say that because your response sounded like it would be Vietnam invading Thailand.
 
I say that because your response sounded like it would be Vietnam invading Thailand.

Well, maybe if Thailand attacked Cambodia as a result of a major border incident that leaves bodies lying around, I suppose it could work. I doubt that Thailand would go out of the way to initiate an all-out war with Cambodia, not with it's hands full with an insurgency of its own.
 
There were quite a few border clashes between Thailand and the Vietnamese forces occupying Cambodia during the 1980's, so I can easily see one such incident spiraling out of control into a full-scale war.
 
It is unlikely that the RTA would invade Cambodia, from memory the Vietnamese military deployed in Cambodia was larger than the entire RTA. Plus the terrain of eastern Thailand is conducive to defensive operations, i.e. mountainous, heavy vegetation. This is before we look at the qualitative advantage enjoyed by the Vietnamese and their experience in fighting wars over forty years at this point.

So with those factors combined it would be unlikely that Thailand would invade Cambodia alone.

The only way that I can think you could have a larger conflict, would be if the Thais launch a raid into Cambodia in retaliation for a similar raid by Vietnam. The mission is successful but the Vietnamese manage to insert a blocking force between the Thais and the border. Accordingly the RTA General Staff is faced with the problem of losing a unit or committing the weight of the Army to relieve them. From my interaction with the RTN my opinion is that the latter course of action would occur.
 
How about Laos being the key? Rabid anticommunist feelings amongst Alt Thai state, the closely related nations factor... the Pathet Leo playing a complex game between PRC, Viets...
 
The only way that I can think you could have a larger conflict, would be if the Thais launch a raid into Cambodia in retaliation for a similar raid by Vietnam. The mission is successful but the Vietnamese manage to insert a blocking force between the Thais and the border. Accordingly the RTA General Staff is faced with the problem of losing a unit or committing the weight of the Army to relieve them. From my interaction with the RTN my opinion is that the latter course of action would occur.

Large scale civilian casualties from the phosegene incident I mentioned above could work.

A rocket goes astray and hits a village directly. A lucky journalist is in the area and gets good footage of the grisly aftermath. The RTA strikes across the border to stop the attacks and retaliate and your scenario follows.

The big question is what the US will do.
 
Not to go all Great Man, but the biggest obstacle to a general Thai-Vietnamese war is General Prem, who by the late '70s was cementing his rule as Generalismo of Thailand

Prem was the best leader Thailand had in the 20th Century (and so far the only Thai leader to ever voluntarily retire), a supreme pragmatist and the last person to do something stupid like get involved in a war over Cambodia with Vietnam.

To have a Thai-Vietnamese war you are going to have to have one of the numerous assassination attempts on General Prem succeed.
 
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