Texas Two-Step: Nixon nominates Connally as VP in 1973

[Deleted member 81475]

Bayh, Church, and Udall could all have a shot here as well. Udall has a western outsider energy which might appeal to voters post Nixon and contrast Connally in a similar way that Reagan contrasted the southern Carter. I do think Connally as a former Democrat might invoke some tribal anger from the out-party. Church could in many ways make it an election thematically about the long shadow of Landslide Lyndon. Bayh would be a fresh face with big ideas and the backing of the Kennedy family and Ted's endorsement.

 

[Hcira1]

Bayh, Church, and Udall could all have a shot here as well. Udall has a western outsider energy which might appeal to voters post Nixon and contrast Connally in a similar way that Reagan contrasted the southern Carter. I do think Connally as a former Democrat might invoke some tribal anger from the out-party. Church could in many ways make it an election thematically about the long shadow of Landslide Lyndon. Bayh would be a fresh face with big ideas and the backing of the Kennedy family and Ted's endorsement.

Of all the candidates mentioned, I think Udall has the best shot of anyone other than Jackson. Carter's nomination was a result of very specific circumstances and him playing his cards perfectly, thats kind of hard to replicate. I just don't see Brown as too likely imo. Wallace is DOA, although I could see a scenario where he performs a bit better in MA than OTL (he only lost by 6%), and manages to win the 5 way primary there, then goes on and wins a whole bunch of southern states right after and gives everyone a quick scare before the reality sets in for his campaign. I just don't think Kennedy would run, and if he did the whole Chapaquidick thing would ruin any "moral high ground" the Democrats want to take.

Edit: My bad, I missed that Kennedy has declared he's running ITTL.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Bayh, Church, and Udall could all have a shot here as well. Udall has a western outsider energy which might appeal to voters post Nixon and contrast Connally in a similar way that Reagan contrasted the southern Carter. I do think Connally as a former Democrat might invoke some tribal anger from the out-party. Church could in many ways make it an election thematically about the long shadow of Landslide Lyndon. Bayh would be a fresh face with big ideas and the backing of the Kennedy family and Ted's endorsement.

Let's not forget about Connally would have to avoid Squeaky Fromme in Sacramento (September 5, 1975) & Sara Jane Moore in San Francisco (September 22, 1975).

Because if either of these attempts are successful, Reagan is almost guaranteed to serve until January 20, 1985 🤔

 

[Sir William Jol]

Of all the candidates mentioned, I think Udall has the best shot of anyone other than Jackson. Carter's nomination was a result of very specific circumstances and him playing his cards perfectly, thats kind of hard to replicate. I just don't see Brown as too likely imo. Wallace is DOA, although I could see a scenario where he performs a bit better in MA than OTL (he only lost by 6%), and manages to win the 5 way primary there, then goes on and wins a whole bunch of southern states right after and gives everyone a quick scare before the reality sets in for his campaign. I just don't think Kennedy would run, and if he did the whole Chapaquidick thing would ruin any "moral high ground" the Democrats want to take.

I do agree that Udall has the best shot for the Democratic nomination I think but Jerry Brown and Ted Kennedy also have a decent shot.

 

[Sir William Jol]

Let's not forget about Connally would have to avoid Squeaky Fromme in Sacramento (September 5, 1975) & Sara Jane Moore in San Francisco (September 22, 1975).

Because if either of these attempts are successful, Reagan is almost guaranteed to serve until January 20, 1985 🤔

I don't think Reagan would get 10 years in office in such a scenario. If the Republicans won in 1976 the poor economy and the Iran hostage crisis (unless it's butterflied) would mean doom for any incumbent President in the general election or even in the primaries to an insurgent candidate.

 

[Hcira1]

I do agree that Udall has the best shot for the Democratic nomination I think but Jerry Brown and Ted Kennedy also have a decent shot.

I had missed where Ted Kennedy announced his candidacy ITTL. He always will have a decent chance just because he's a Kennedy. I think he would be the clear frontrunner going in, but idk if he would be able to actually secure the nomination because of chapaquidick. He might, but I could also easily see him collapsing and a candidate like Udall taking his support.

Idk about Brown. I just don't see it. He's really young and inexperienced, he won't have the backing of the establishment of the party, and he doesn't have nationwide name recognition. I know he came in second in the popular vote IOTL, but even then, 2 million of his 2.4 million votes came from his home state.

 

[Hcira1]

I don't think Reagan would get 10 years in office in such a scenario. If the Republicans won in 1976 the poor economy and the Iran hostage crisis (unless it's butterflied) would mean doom for any incumbent President in the general election or even in the primaries to an insurgent candidate.

I don't think 1976 is necessarily a poisoned chalice election. Whoever wins is definitely going to face a lot of challenges, but they're manageable if they're tackled early. Perhaps someone like Reagan is convinced by someone like Milton Friedman to take strong measures against inflation early on in his term, and we see something like the early 80s where theres a recession but by the time the election comes around its over and the economy is growing extraordinarily quickly.

 

[Sir William Jol]

I had missed where Ted Kennedy announced his candidacy ITTL. He always will have a decent chance just because he's a Kennedy. I think he would be the clear frontrunner going in, but idk if he would be able to actually secure the nomination because of chapaquidick. He might, but I could also easily see him collapsing and a candidate like Udall taking his support.

Idk about Brown. I just don't see it. He's really young and inexperienced, he won't have the backing of the establishment of the party, and he doesn't have nationwide name recognition. I know he came in second in the popular vote IOTL, but even then, 2 million of his 2.4 million votes came from his home state.

I can understand why some might think Brown is an unlikely nominee and I might agree if it doesn't look like Connally is gonna be re-elected no matter what. I remember reading that a Connally-Reagan ticket would be the Republicans' dream ticket and without the Nixon pardon there will be little to stop a relatively popular incumbent President in '76 so why not have the challenger be a easy opponent like Brown. He's young, inexperienced, doesn't have a wife to help him campaign and make him look human, and he's controversial due to his fringe far-left views. I predict that Connally is going to be re-elected in either a landslide or a nail-biting race depending on the challenger and that the 1980s will have a Democratic President because there is no way the Republicans can win in 1980 after twelve years in office and a poor economy.

 

[Sir William Jol]

I don't think 1976 is necessarily a poisoned chalice election. Whoever wins is definitely going to face a lot of challenges, but they're manageable if they're tackled early. Perhaps someone like Reagan is convinced by someone like Milton Friedman to take strong measures against inflation early on in his term, and we see something like the early 80s where theres a recession but by the time the election comes around its over and the economy is growing extraordinarily quickly.

I do agree that 1976 wouldn't be a poisoned chalice election under the right circumstances but if the Republicans win and somehow avoid the recession and hostage crisis they still would've been in office for 12 years leading to voter fatigue to start setting in. 1980 would likely be a bitter landslide loss or a narrow loss for VP Reagan.

 

[wolverinethad]

Lots of fantastic theories and ideas thrown around here. I am a big fan of Big Mo and feel that he will have a part to play here. IOTL, Frank Church had a Senate committee in the spotlight to boost him. ITTL, he may not have such a big turn. Nixon was removed, Connally is putting on a very good veneer of openness, and he's going after ITT. It's a great way of misdirecting attention from the insane crap at the CIA. Bill Colby was a master field operative, one of Langley's best. Politics isn't his forte, and Connally did what Jerry Ford never would: threaten to burn it all down if he kept talking. It was a ballsy move and it worked, and Paul Nitze is a tough knife fighter, one who will not be open and compliant with Congress.

And again, there's also the psychology of having gotten Nixon's head on the Dems' wall. Ford let him off and the Dems made him suffer for it. Here, they got what they really wanted, and while people like Liz Holtzman and Father Drinan will make noises, the leadership will keep them in line....for a time, at least.

I think it pays to remember that, despite having a horrible hand dealt to him as President, and not being particularly good at many parts of the job, Ford lost fairly narrowly. Carter made it only because of New York, and one wonders if that wouldn't have happened had Rocky not been booted off the ballot. +27 over the EC margin and only 1.683 million more votes. It was a weak victory for Jimmeh.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Looking forward to seeing how Connally avoids two crazy women Squeaky & Sara Jane 🤔 in CA.

On Nixon: he attended his own impeachment trial?

 

[Rochester1202]

I still think Carter has a good shot at being the nominee because most of the reasons are the same. He can still run on being a outsider to Washington, being a honest man(Connally I think people would be unsure at how honest he really is), and the biggest thing is he was better prepare for the new primary rules.

That said with Kennedy in things will be different because many of the OTL candidates were less well-know and people were unsure who to support.

If Carter is the nominee I just can't see him winning against Connally given how the OTL 76 election was unless things go really bad.

 

[Grand_Panjandrum]

If it's Udall, no need for a clumsy portmanteau; just a hyphen is needed: Mo-mentum.

 

[Sir William Jol]

I predict Connally will narrowly win re-election in 1976 over Ted Kennedy and in 1980 Reagan will lose in a landslide to some Democrat. Most Ford wins in '76 timelines vary in who would be elected to succeed him in 1980.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

I still think Carter has a good shot at being the nominee because most of the reasons are the same. He can still run on being a outsider to Washington, being a honest man(Connally I think people would be unsure at how honest he really is), and the biggest thing is he was better prepare for the new primary rules.

That said with Kennedy in things will be different because many of the OTL candidates were less well-know and people were unsure who to support.

If Carter is the nominee I just can't see him winning against Connally given how the OTL 76 election was unless things go really bad.

Could the Democrats push for either CA Governor Jerry Brown (D) or LA Governor Edwin Edwards (D) to be their nominee in 1976 against Connally? Assuming Connally doesn't face another assassination attempt in 1975.

 

[wolverinethad]

Looking forward to seeing how Connally avoids two crazy women Squeaky & Sara Jane 🤔 in CA.

On Nixon: he attended his own impeachment trial?

As to the first, butterflies are going to remove the CA visit for Mr. Connally. So he won't be dodging them. Something more...interesting will be taking place.

Yes, Nixon went over in a fit of pique the day Leon Jaworski was testifying. He was at his most dangerous when cornered, and he decided he wanted to be Samson. He wanted to take the Senate down with him. He misjudged matters.

 

[Seandineen]

Could Connally be able to recognise a black ruled white advised Rhodesia? Sparing Africa, Robert Mugabe's thirty seven years of chaos? That might help UNITA in Angola also.

 

[Sir William Jol]

As to the first, butterflies are going to remove the CA visit for Mr. Connally. So he won't be dodging them. Something more...interesting will be taking place.

Yes, Nixon went over in a fit of pique the day Leon Jaworski was testifying. He was at his most dangerous when cornered, and he decided he wanted to be Samson. He wanted to take the Senate down with him. He misjudged matters.

I do wonder what could possibly more interesting than Connally getting assassinated by Squeaky Fromme or Sara Jane Moore in September 1975? Hmm maybe Connally's milk scandal comes to light by that point or a little later? Ooh or maybe it's VP Reagan who is killed?

 

[Sir William Jol]

I don't mean to bring false hope for an update but I'm just wondering of this thread is dead or on hiatus? Again I'm sorry if I get anyone hopes up and I am unsure how to go about figuring this out without asking in a comment here.

 

[Seandineen]

I sure hope, this is not finished. The new spin on Watergate is both fasinating and extremely belivable. Connally really deserved a crack at the White House.