Would Texas try to succeed from the CSA, and would it be successful?

  • Yes, Texas would try to succeed and gain Independence

    Votes: 66 65.3%
  • Yes, Texas would try, but it’ll end in failure

    Votes: 14 13.9%
  • No, Texas will not try to succeed from the CSA

    Votes: 18 17.8%
  • Texas gains greater autonomy

    Votes: 3 3.0%

  • Total voters
    101
It uses the word "permanent", not "perpetual", though they mean basically the same thing ("perpetual" has a better ring to it, in my opinion). But this doesn't preclude the secession of a state. If Texas were to secede, the Confederate government would not cease to exist.

And, for what it's worth, the Articles of Confederation were said to be "perpetual" as well.
The Articles of Confederation called the Union perpetual, if I recalled correctly, not the articles themselves (itself) per se.
 

samcster94

Banned
Where does oil come into play??? Sooner or later, oil will be discovered and an 1860's POD is too late to stop the technology from existing, even if it comes later.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Where does oil come into play??? Sooner or later, oil will be discovered and an 1860's POD is too late to stop the technology from existing, even if it comes later.

It might come earlier. IOTL, the early American oil demand was satisfied from western Pennsylvania and Ohio, but the CSA would have to import oil if they were an independent nation. This would lead them to search more intensively for domestic supplies.
 
One of the few reasons given for declaring secession that didn't tie directly back to slavery was Texas declaring "They have refused to vote appropriations for protecting Texas against ruthless savages, for the sole reason that she is a slave-holding State." An independent Confederacy is even less likely to spend as much on the defense of Texas as the Texans want. Plus during the war, General Kirby Smith frequently and strongly pushed his own authority over that of the state governments in "Kirby-Smithdom", which was resented. If Mexico is strong, I'd expect Texas to stay with the Confederacy, otherwise there's a good chance they would go their own way,

There's also a strong possibility that the end of the war leaves the Union still in control of the lower Mississippi River. That would leave the entire TransMississippi geographically separated from the rest of the Confederacy, which would increase the chance of a breakway of the whole region, not jut Texas.

In the even of attempted independence by Texas or the whole TransMississippi, I'd expect the Confederacy to try to force them to stay. The Confederates always failed at invading hostile territory in OTL, I see no reason for them to do better against Texas.
 
I think eventually Texas will secede, just because a victorious South will have demonstrated that seceding now is a viable political option The big question will be: What other states North and South will already have seceded by the time Texas does. I can see an independent Florida and Missouri way earlier then a newly independent Texas... Not to mention California...
 
Given the tendincy of the CSA member states to care more about their own needs in the long term, I wouldn't think it impossible that the CSA would collapse in the event of Texas leaving.
 
Texas leaving would endanger the CSA and probably get the USA ready. Hell, I think they (the Americans) would be willing to cut a deal with Mexico on getting back the land. And if the CSA did indeed fracture, it would remove their legitimacy and pretty much destroy any chance of outside help, allowing the USA and Mexico to take back the land and likely impose stronger reconstruction punishments to ensure loyalty.
 
No, it would not. The Confederate States of America didn't take kindly secessionist talk in the OTL (They sent an army to West Virginia when it had seceded from Virginia, They threaten another state when they mention secession) They would have lost. And even if for some reason they won, they would still have lost. I could see The Second Mexican Empire waging a war to reclaim Texas and to garner support for Maximilian.
 
The CSA was on a collision course with unruly states had they won the war. Georgia and North Carolina were borderline in defiance of Richmond for almoat the entirety of the war and resisted any attempts at Richmond centralizing power.

It would depend I think if the CSA affirms state powers in the aftermath of a victory or not. If the CSA comes out of the war and largely devolves to the states than I think Texas leaves fairly easily. If they try to centralize for reasons of defense and maintain a large standing army, than I think it gets harder.
 
Where does oil come into play??? Sooner or later, oil will be discovered and an 1860's POD is too late to stop the technology from existing, even if it comes later.
The Texas oil industry really doesn't get rolling until the early 1900s. It's also worth noting that while Texas is big, it had virtually no industry, again until the 1900s. Cows and cotton were its main exports.
 
What would the borders of the CSA be? If we are being realistic we can rule it the so called Confederate Territory of Arizona. And I am unsure how much of Oklahoma would come, if any. If it did, I imagine the Texans would keep trying to take some land from them, be it the panhandle or Greer County. Despite, you know, mostly still not having really settled much of anything in Texas outside of the old Neuces era bundary before the US invaded Mexico.

Now Louisiana trying to secede would certainly have the Confederates trying to stomp them. Strategic port, central location, a lot of free Blacks and Mulattos (not sure what terms they used for those who had partial African or Indian ancestry but were given a degree of acceptance) and they probably would say that if they didn't invade and crush the Damnyankee infiltators and the ungrateful ******* they would have another Haiti. While of course ignoring how the issues with Haiti was the French keeping trying to enslave the people who were given freedom multiple times.
 
Can I offer an even odder possibility? Texas turns into West Virginia, & only part secedes (successfully :openedeyewink: ), while other parts stay in CSA.

Just what the cleavage is, & where the border would be, I couldn't guess.

I picture this a bit like the Quebec secession: the separatistas leave, the Natives (& their Reserves) stay (& maybe Montreal, too, :cool: making it like West Berlin:openedeyewink: ).
 
Can I offer an even odder possibility? Texas turns into West Virginia, & only part secedes (successfully :openedeyewink: ), while other parts stay in CSA.

Just what the cleavage is, & where the border would be, I couldn't guess.

I picture this a bit like the Quebec secession: the separatistas leave, the Natives (& their Reserves) stay (& maybe Montreal, too, :cool: making it like West Berlin:openedeyewink: ).
the German-settled parts, probably--iirc they were strongly opposed to secession and even suffered massacres at the hands of the Confederates
 
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