Tesla invents the transistor in 1896

[Philip]

That however doesn't negate the possibility of its invention and further development.

Could you describe how this might happen?

If the basic elements of microchip computing are about in the 20s and 30s,

Tesla inventing a transistor is one thing. Manufacturing microchips in the 20's is another thing all together.

what kind of advances would Alan Turing and the other geniuses at Bletchley Park have been able to come up with?

Since someone else would have already laid the foundation for computer science, I'm not sure Turing would be there. Are we sure there would even be a WWII?

Alan Turing becomes the equivalent of Bill Gates / Steve Jobs?

Doubtful. Not his personality type. Probably more like Knuth.

 

[Max Sinister]

Alan Turing becomes the equivalent of Bill Gates / Steve Jobs?

Inventing the AI? (Hey, a man can dream.)

 

[danwild6]

Tesla inventing a transistor is one thing. Manufacturing microchips in the 20's is another thing all together.

This is true, the transistor will simplify things more than revolutionize them.

Since someone else would have already laid the foundation for computer science, I'm not sure Turing would be there. Are we sure there would even be a WWII?

Depends on what happens during WWI, Bletchley Park may or may or happen necessity being the mother of invention.

 

[MaxMahem]

If the basic elements of microchip computing are about in the 20s and 30s, what kind of advances would Alan Turing and the other geniuses at Bletchley Park have been able to come up with?

Alan Turing becomes the equivalent of Bill Gates / Steve Jobs?

Very hard to say. With the development of the transitor back in the 1890's we would probably already be seeing "Turning Complete" computers by the late 1920's or 1930's, if not sooner. Though Alan Turning might not play a part in there design so they would have a different name. Building such a device would be relativily simple in comparision with the gargantuan mechanical systems that were built instead at the time. There would a substantial demand for such computers to deal with tabulation, statistics, engineering, firing solutions, and encryption.

There are lots of butterflies between 1896 and WWII, but one of many profound impacts would be in the field of cryptology. Germany would obviously not field the Enigma machines, and would instead field considerably more advanced transistor based machines. With more powerful devices available to encrypt their data, the German and Japanese codes might not be broken, which would could have a profound impact on the outcome of WWII.

 

[Johnestauffer]

I am not sure the tranistor by itself might bring instance sucess.
For example, the computer relies on many components.
Most important is the operating system and the various software applications.
To realize the potential of the tranistor in the computer world you would have to develop a large amount of code to make the systems operate.

On the other hand, if the computer was developed and applied to the military arts, it would be interesting to see the result. Computer 'gaming' might help the development of appropriate strategies. Other computer software could improve the design of hardware (a/c, afv's, ships).

 

[lounge60]

About Tesla's car: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=61634&highlight=tesla

 

[alt_historian]

BUMPAGE!!!

 

[grdja83]

Jeez, this one is interesting.

OK, for radio use Tesla invents primitive transistor in 1906. By end of WWI communications are very different than in OTL. Primitive radar by 1920? I dont think radar and crypto will appear in time to make any effect in WWI.

Now, with limited butterflies, WWI ends as OTL, so stage is set for revanchist Germany. Still, by OTL WWII to many butterflies.

Electronic computers created in in early 1920es or in 1915-1920 period?
Jeez, Neumann, Turing, Godel with electronic computers!
By 1929. there will be a numeric data processing. Will the stock market go different?
World economics will change. Late thirties will have TVs present and radio omnipresent. Very likely there will be late 1950es style mainframes by 1940.

Atomic and later quantum physics are going to go much smoother, tons of math can be now solved much more quickly...

Supposedly WWII happens... Tanks will be having radios in every one of them for decade or more by then. Everyone will be trying to learn now tactics and behavior. Compact infantry radios...

Butterfly in assault rifles being accepted and developed trough '30es. By 1940. numeric models and analysis will be used in aerodynamics research. What if jet engine also appears in '30es? Could we end up with mostly OTL '50es tech widely used in ATL WWII in '40es?

Microprocessor by 1950?

 

[pacifichistorian]

We could also assume that radar will be developed more quickly, along with practically anything involving physics or chemistry. How long before some basic degree of CAD becomes possible here? Also, would potential improvements in radio, fire control, and torpedo guidance technology occur early enough to have an effect on WWI?

Improved electronics means earlier proximity fuses, bad news for WW1 aircraft. It also means earlier AAMs &/or SAMs, bad news for zep bombers. Homing torpedoes are a little harder; that still needs the invention of hydrophones. You might see earlier sonobuoys, tho, coupled to ASW blimps, ASW seaplanes, or both, & later blimps with dipping 'phones (all tested by 1918 OTL, BTW). Earlier radar, plus better/faster DF, would tend to drive a demand for U-boats able to operate better submerged, so expect schnorchel & a crude version of the Type XXI "elektroboot", plus a demand for a way to home on convoys by tracking their radio transmissions (which was in limited production, IIRC, in WW2 OTL). Better U-boats are a terror, needless to say...

I dont think radar and crypto will appear in time to make any effect in WWI.

It will, you can bet on it. Room 40 played a big part even OTL WW1 (not least the Zimmerman telegram). Early radio means easier interception earlier, which means an earlier than OTL awareness of the need for signal security, which means something like Enigma sooner than OTL. Could be Room 40's successes against HSF are much less than OTL.... Of course, it could also mean Jellicoe listens when Room 40 warns him HSF is leaving, & he takes Campania along (he didn't OTL...) Greater vulnerability of radio comm tends to butterfly away wolfpacking, IMO. Early "computers" mean breaking even machine cyphers is easier, so expect more frequent changes, maybe even more complex & difficult 1st-gen machines. I'm not sure the mathematics for anything much more sophisticated than a mini version of a rotor machine existed before about 1920 & Friedman's work, tho; could be you'd see a portable typewriter-sized model equal to a 7- or 9-rotor Enigma (which would be hellish hard to crack anyhow, even with early variants of "Colossus"). And radar had been examined by 1904, but not seen as useful for anything... With the ability to do the calculations, I can see counterbattery radar by 1914. That demands SPGs, with the need to "shoot & scoot", maybe SP heavy mortar, too.

Early radio & TV also butterflies away area bombing, IMO. With the ability to have radio nav such as Knickebein/Gee/Oboe much earlier, plus radio-guided bombs like Fritx or Azon, not to mention Felix or GB-8, hitting individual factories or powerplants won't be an issue... You'll need faster aircraft, tho, to avoid SAMs & AAMs, so expect early arrival of something like a bomber variant of the DH.88. I'd also expect ARMs by the '20s & something like Wild Weasel in WW2. Might see a variation on X-7/X-4 before 1918 & TOW by 1940.

If not CAD, exactly, I can see machine tools approaching the capability of robots in the '20s TTL, with attendant increases in quality & output in all areas of business; this, IMO, can only reduce labor demand & lead to a higher peak for Wall Street (companies building on the fallacious OTL theory production creates demand), & deeper, harder crash (more inventory that is more durable than OTL), & a more difficult & longer time to recover (less demand for labor hence more UE, compared to OTL). With better number crunching, I'd expect aircraft to be better much sooner than OTL, as they become less dependent on "rule of thumb" & more on actual calculation & measurement; cars, trucks, ships too.

With earlier than OTL radio/TV, you see broad dissemination of music & culture much more easily, so propaganda is easier. (FDR=Reagan? Hitler more popular sooner?) Broad exposure to, & acceptance of, different kinds of music is likely. So is a "levelling" of classes (more exposure to how "the Joneses" lives means overall less "classishness" {is that a word?}). You also make it much harder to carry out "covert" oppression of blacks in U.S. (TV made a huge diff in OTL '50s-'60s civ rights movement), & probably make the Holocaust impossible; before the '40s, I picture the creation of something like CNN. You also kill off vaudeville much earlier, & butterfly away the careers of (thank God!) Milton Berle, Bob Hope, & Ed Sullivan, maybe Carson, too.

And if you can get the $ behind it, you might be able to put Man on the Moon by 1950...

 

[alt_historian]

bump!.....

 

[Prince Charon]

Interesting ATL.

With better anti-aircraft fire, we might not see the development of the aircraft carrier, because RADAR and anti-aircraft missiles would take away much of its advantages. Perhaps the new 'big ships' of the 1930s will be 'Missile Dreadnoughts', or something. Depending on how fast the technology advances, we might not even have Air Forces, or they might be dirigible dominated, as those can fly higher, out of missile range.

 

[yellowdingo]

Problems:
1) Tesla was way ahead of his time
2) He had a difficult personality
3) He was a great engineer, but for building a computer, you also have to know a lot about mathematics and logic. Could he do that? Even a simple one?

Things Tesla could have invented had he pursued logic switcthing.

1. The Calculator. A NOT logic device would have been the clinching device that would have given him Boolean Logic Maths.
2. Keyboards are little more than lookup tables for an x-y grid.

A Computer requires a substantial step up in complexity and TESLA already had a SuperComputer (His Brain).

 

[yellowdingo]

Late thirties will have TVs present and radio omnipresent. Very likely there will be late 1950es style mainframes by 1940.

TESLA DISPLAY by 1910: An Arc Shower Device where the pixil is made up of an electrical discharge across a gap could be built up into an X-Y display. This is hotly disputed by the Edison company who sue claiming its just a grid of Edison Lightbulbs...

 

[King Gorilla]

You would probably end up seeing this timeline's equivalent of silicon valley being built side by side with the great industrial combines of the rust belt.

 

[pacifichistorian]

With better anti-aircraft fire, we might not see the development of the aircraft carrier, because RADAR and anti-aircraft missiles would take away much of its advantages. Perhaps the new 'big ships' of the 1930s will be 'Missile Dreadnoughts', or something. Depending on how fast the technology advances, we might not even have Air Forces, or they might be dirigible dominated, as those can fly higher, out of missile range.

I doubt CVs disappear entire. Ships have better on-station enudrance. What might arise is a "zep carrier" of some kind, with zeps carrying large numbers of PGMs & ALCMs, plus probably big radars. Maybe manned military HTA disappears, tho. Eventually, I'd expect RPVs might supplant "dumb" ALCMs, but maybe not til they top Mach 5, & maybe not then, 'cause by then, they're too fast for manned control anyhow.... Fair bet to see "cluster" weapons, a mix of killers & decoys, & "mini" missiles, or combination of both.

 

[the_lyniezian]

I wonder if just inventing the transistor is going to directly lead to the early creation/development of the computer, or television, or any other technology. These things need people to come up with them first and may take time (as with television) to develop standards. But I suppose that what is developed will be much more compact and reliable, and the pace of change may advance quicker.

 

[Mark E.]

According to Wikipedia, prototypes for the transistor were developed in the twenties and thirties, but they didn't "take off" in the real world of invention for some time.

Many inventions evolve slowly. A good example is the Edison phonograph; after its introduction, improvements were sluggish for some time.

Tesla had some workhorse devices: the induction motor and the transmission coil. So, if he had come across the transistor principle in 1896, he might have put it on the back burner for the laboratory tinkerer.

If I had to make a guess, over the course of a century, such a development probably would not have yielded a gain of more than 10 years over OTL. Now, improved voice radio during WWI would have been significant.

 

[PMN1]

Now, improved voice radio during WWI would have been significant.

Extremely significant seeing as once the troops stared moving the ability of the Generals to know what was going on at the point of contact and act accordingly was virtually non existent.

 

[Mark E.]

Extremely significant seeing as once the troops stared moving the ability of the Generals to know what was going on at the point of contact and act accordingly was virtually non existent.

A five year advance in radio technology provides a POD introduces butterflies that change the outcome of WWI, Versailles, the Weimar economic collapse, the viability of a Third Reich and the rest of the century's history. Without delving into political details, the resulting environment might be much more conducive to technology. Or, it could turn around and apply the technology to more destruction than OTL.

 

[the_lyniezian]

A five year advance in radio technology provides a POD introduces butterflies that change the outcome of WWI, Versailles, the Weimar economic collapse, the viability of a Third Reich and the rest of the century's history. Without delving into political details, the resulting environment might be much more conducive to technology. Or, it could turn around and apply the technology to more destruction than OTL.

Which sort of outcome would be more conducive to technology, though? If we assume no WW2, we are going to get some fewer advances- recall that there seems to be nothing better for making technological improvements and new inventions than the impetus of war. At the same time, a better or more stable economy might well drive the civilian sector.

EDIT: On the other hand if we assume a major war erupts anyway, if not indeed worse, then that is not a concern...