Territory of a Modern Ottoman Empire

Alright, so as we know (or should know) the Ottoman Empire, one of the largest and longest lasting nations in History unfortunately ceased
to be in 1923.

So, what if it had'nt let's say it stayed out of WW1 and kept on reforming and such.


What would the Ottoman Empire look like territorially today, would it retain all of it's territory, would it be smaller, or would it be bigger?
 
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I'm sure Pasha will be along shortly to tell you the same thing, but it largely depends on A.) the outcome of Arab revolts/interdictions/etc., and B.) how dedicated the Great Powers will be to not screwing around with internal Ottoman affairs. I'd venture to say that the most likely territorial outcome would be roughly OTL Turkey+Syria+Iraq+Palestine/Transjordan+Lebanon, with possibly Azerbaijan and Armenia, depending on how the whole Soviet thing goes. Arabia itself would likely be too troublesome to hold on to, due to the rather nasty natives and Great Power interest in the Gulf oil wells.
 
Here's what I'd say. I'm basing my predictions after rast's Great War Victory timeline, but after the Great War, the Ottomans would gain back most of the Arab peninsula, plus other regimes such as Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman being subordinate states. The Ottomans would also likely get back Lybia from Italy in the treaty, with Egypt also being semi-autonomous. Azerbaijan is up in the air, as is Armenia.

I also say that they'd have trouble with the Greeks who get ideas about the Megali Idea, and that there would have to be a population transfer to get the Greeks out of the Ottoman Empire.

Then, the Ottomans would focus on modernizing, and they'd be able to get this done faster since oil is becoming more and more important, and they happen to have quite a bit of it now in OTL Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

I'd assume Lybia would obtain its independance sooner or later, yet remain and ally of the Ottomans, while Egypt would gain full soverienty. However, the Ottoman Empire would keep its Arab provinces up to the present day, as more a Federation than an Empire.

Of course, there will be struggles and occasional rebellions along the way, but with the Middle East minus Persia united into a single Muslim state, we don't see the Sadaams, Osamas or other sort of bad people rear their ugly heads and would overall be more prosperous.
 

Thande

Donor
Given the upheavals of OTL, I'd say best case for the Ottomans in a situation where WW1 goes mostly the same would be approximately modern Turkey + Iraq + Syria + maybe Lebanon, leaving the situation in Europe aside for a moment. I don't see them getting back the Hejaz.
 

MrP

Banned
Here's what I'd say. I'm basing my predictions after rast's Great War Victory timeline, but after the Great War, the Ottomans would gain back most of the Arab peninsula, plus other regimes such as Yemen, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman being subordinate states. The Ottomans would also likely get back Lybia from Italy in the treaty, with Egypt also being semi-autonomous. Azerbaijan is up in the air, as is Armenia.

I also say that they'd have trouble with the Greeks who get ideas about the Megali Idea, and that there would have to be a population transfer to get the Greeks out of the Ottoman Empire.

Then, the Ottomans would focus on modernizing, and they'd be able to get this done faster since oil is becoming more and more important, and they happen to have quite a bit of it now in OTL Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

I'd assume Lybia would obtain its independance sooner or later, yet remain and ally of the Ottomans, while Egypt would gain full soverienty. However, the Ottoman Empire would keep its Arab provinces up to the present day, as more a Federation than an Empire.

Of course, there will be struggles and occasional rebellions along the way, but with the Middle East minus Persia united into a single Muslim state, we don't see the Sadaams, Osamas or other sort of bad people rear their ugly heads and would overall be more prosperous.

I don't think one need worry too much about the Greeks in such a TL. Remember the OP has the Ottomans staying out of the war. That means the Straits are open and they're allowing Entente merchants through to Russia. The Ottomans will have more money than IOTL, and the goodwill of the British and French, while the Russians - assuming a broadly similar war otherwise - will be exhausted by all the fighting in Central and Eastern Europe, and in no mood for squabbling with a powerful undamaged Ottoman Empire. The Ottoman Navy definitely benefits ITTL from continued links with the RN, and we might even see those two battleships actually reaching Turkey (Churchill permitting). So if the Greeks do try anything, they're up against a richer, stronger state with a more powerful fleet and with an army it can concentrate in one area.
 
If it could keep control over its oil industry and modernise its economy it would actually be an incredibly wealthy and powerful country.
 
If it could keep control over its oil industry and modernise its economy it would actually be an incredibly wealthy and powerful country.

Indeed it would.

I wonder, if things played out well for it, if the Ottoman Empire could become a Superpower, it would have a large, mostly unified population, an economy that would likely put it among the top ten (if not top five), would be in a very strategically important (both economically and geopolitically) position and very may well have a large, modern military.


As a side note, I would hope they'd chosen a better name, or atleast made 'Sublime Ottoman State' their official English-language name.
 
I've got two versions of a timeline where there's a Cold War between a democratic oil-rich Ottoman Empire and a racist-imperialist mega-Mexico, where the US is a non-issue (in one, the colonies broke up after independence and in another, the French occupied the Eastern Seaboard and many Americans went inland a la the Boers).

It was done in response to an argument between Abdul and I about how there'd be Christian terrorism against Islamic missionaries associated with an Ottoman Empire occupying Alabama and someone commented that our scenario required a liberal democratic high-tech Ottoman Empire occupying the remnants of a Christian theocracy at the foothills of the Appalachians.

So I tried to come up with an ATL where the American South was Afghanistan.

I never really thought of how much territory they would control, though. They'd probably control Arabia and the oil wealth.
 

Germaniac

Donor
If the Ottomans once again rise to the Great Power status look to them attacking Persia to take the eastern provinces. Or you might see a European power go into Persia and modernize it to be a stalwart to the growing Ottoman threat.
 
Indeed it would.

I wonder, if things played out well for it, if the Ottoman Empire could become a Superpower, it would have a large, mostly unified population, an economy that would likely put it among the top ten (if not top five), would be in a very strategically important (both economically and geopolitically) position and very may well have a large, modern military.


As a side note, I would hope they'd chosen a better name, or atleast made 'Sublime Ottoman State' their official English-language name.

Depends. I can imagine their best course would have been to try and stay onside with every world power and just get richer off the oil profits. Iran and Russia/USSR would have been likely rivals, geopolitically and economically. By today's borders its population would be somewhere around the 180m mark, more than enough to give it the basis for being a superpower. All really hinges on how industrialised it could have become... a very interesting concept to be sure.
 
I'm actually working on something now that has a surviving Ottoman Empire, so that's what got me thinking about this.


Basically what I have in mind is that the Ottomans spend the 19th century reforming, much as they did OTL, thought in some ways more rapid.

Persia itself also spent a great deal of time reforming and making nice with Europe in order to gain favor, so that does prevent any war between the two.

By the modern day the Ottoman Empire is a secular, liberal, democratic Federation with a figurehead monarch akin to Japan's which controls the entire Arabian Peninsula, Turkey, the Levant and a larger version of Egypt and is allied with Slavonia (parts of Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and all of Bosnia) and Libya, which itself is in a close personal union with the OE, much like Canada was with Britain in the early 20th century.
 
I can see the Ottomans holding the core areas of the Levant, Cyprus Iraq and of course Turkey.

However I do think that the Arab Uprisings were most serious in the area of modern day Saudi Arabia and although Ottomans fans tend to blame the British for this the reality is the Ottoman Empire although resilient in WW1 is still quite weak internally in some respects. With the central government struggling to exert control over the outlying areas of the Empire.

I see the Prospect of a long money & blood draining guerrilla war, in what was (at the time) worthless desert would eventually cause the Ottomans to withdraw from the Arabian Peninsula and allow the local tribes/royalty to set up a new state/states so long as they align themselves with the Empire diplomatically.

Of course the Ottomans would go balls out to keep Mecca under their control
 
I can see the Ottomans holding the core areas of the Levant, Cyprus Iraq and of course Turkey.

However I do think that the Arab Uprisings were most serious in the area of modern day Saudi Arabia and although Ottomans fans tend to blame the British for this the reality is the Ottoman Empire although resilient in WW1 is still quite weak internally in some respects. With the central government struggling to exert control over the outlying areas of the Empire.

I see the Prospect of a long money & blood draining guerrilla war, in what was (at the time) worthless desert would eventually cause the Ottomans to withdraw from the Arabian Peninsula and allow the local tribes/royalty to set up a new state/states so long as they align themselves with the Empire diplomatically.

Of course the Ottomans would go balls out to keep Mecca under their control

I think the extent of the Arab revolt has been greatly exagerated. Both in the West's movie-inspired imagination and in the Arab world's nationalist versions of history. In reality, it just wasn't that big. The vast majority of Arabs were not separatists, nor did they for the most part even have much of a modern national consciousness. The revolt was a a lot smaller than you likely think it was. If the Ottomans weren't busy fighting the world war, they would have crushed it with ease.
 
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