Territorial acquisitions of a Central Power USA?

trajen777

Banned
Jut some Information (http://eh.net/encyclopedia/u-s-economy-in-world-war-i/)
Table 1
Selected Economic Variables, 1916-1920

1916 1917 1918 1919 1920
1. Industrial production (1916 =100) 100 132 139 137 108
2. Revenues of the federal government (millions of dollars) $930 2,373 4,388 5,889 6,110
3. Expenditures of the federal government (millions of dollars) $1,333 7,316 15,585 12,425 5,710
4. Army and Navy spending (millions of dollars) $477 3,383 8,580 6,685 2,063
5. Stock of money, M2 (billions of dollars) $20.7 24.3 26.2 30.7 35.1
6. GNP deflator (1916 =100) 100 120 141 160 185
7. Gross National Product (GNP) (billions of dollars) $46.0 55.1 69.7 77.2 87.2
8. Real GNP (billions of 1916 dollars) $46.0 46.0 49.6 48.1 47.1
9. Average annual earnings per full-time manufacturing employee (1916 dollars) $751 748 802 813 828

Military forces 1916 - 1919

Military personnel (millions) .174 .835 2.968 1.266

Always have issues cut and pasting tables. Anyway army and navy spending wend from 477 mm in 1916 to 8.580 b in 1918. Army grew from 174,000 in 1916 to 835,000 in 1917 to 2.968 mm in 1918.

Population :
Canada 7.2 mm
USA 76.2 mm

So the USA would
1. 1914 build up overwhelming force (1916). Cut Canada in half and take over Vancouver, and perhaps Calgary or Edmonton to cut east west rail lines.
2. Massive naval build up and art. (the USA could have easily built up their forces on this however they did not need to do this as easier to use Allied material in France vs shipping)
3. GB cannot protect the Canadian coasts in that the RN needed to protect the channel against the German fleet.
4 Overwhelm Canada by 16 - 17 after picking off the Caribbean
5. If war goes on in 17 -19 then USA army exceeds 6 - 8 mm troops and much larger fleet, so Canada cannot win. Anyway before this happens GB and France go bankrupt
 
Though I wonder if in case of a very CP friendly US might Canada declare neutrality to avoid becoming a battlefield or would that be treason to the British crown?
 
Though I wonder if in case of a very CP friendly US might Canada declare neutrality to avoid becoming a battlefield or would that be treason to the British crown?

To be honest the question regarding the Imperial Defence commitments of the Dominions was largely unsettled but to with a CP USA prior to war you would probably see a neutral UK as its primary concern would be the defence of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and India etc rather than French, Russian and Serbian interests.

This likely means an expensive war of conquest against the British which is unnecessary to its alliance commitments for the US if it wants Brit territories. No one in the CP+US with a functioning brain cell is going to look to transform the naval situation from distinctly advantageous to slightly disadvantageous by pushing the British* into war if they just want favourable territorial adjustments.

A lot really depends when the US swings to the CP but an early adherence almost certainly sees the British either join themselves or seek splendid isolation as the best means of preserving Imperial Defence.

*this might also include Japan if the same alliance arrangements exist as per 1902 OTL
 
More information is needed to be honest. When does the US join the war and how much war preparation was done in advance (hostilities with the Entente must have escalated before 1914 for this to work). The US joining the Central Powers spells absolute doom for the Entente, but depending on other factors the length of the war will vary, even if the war is very likely to end sooner than OTL. A shorter war will result in softer terms, if Britain and France try to drag this out they'll suffer more harshly.
 
Most likely. Canada declares independence and seeks an American alliance. Otherwise, Canada is joining the US

Canada, since oh say 1867, was not joining the United States except via force of arms. There's no ifs, ands, or buts about this. The Laurier Liberal government was brought down in 1911 for looking too open to American economic integration. If America wanted a piece of Canada they would have to come and take it, that was simply how Canadians looked at it.

Though I wonder if in case of a very CP friendly US might Canada declare neutrality to avoid becoming a battlefield or would that be treason to the British crown?

If Britain went to war, Canada followed. That was the case until 1933, and the British would only change that if they absolutely did not want to fight the US, but if they were going to be forced to, Britain would prepare. You can bet that there'd probably be two BEF's, one for France and a smaller one for Canada.
 

trajen777

Banned
Canada, since oh say 1867, was not joining the United States except via force of arms. There's no ifs, ands, or buts about this. The Laurier Liberal government was brought down in 1911 for looking too open to American economic integration. If America wanted a piece of Canada they would have to come and take it, that was simply how Canadians looked at it.



If Britain went to war, Canada followed. That was the case until 1933, and the British would only change that if they absolutely did not want to fight the US, but if they were going to be forced to, Britain would prepare. You can bet that there'd probably be two BEF's, one for France and a smaller one for Canada.


It would be an interesting situation for Canada. If GB joins the war (assuming from the TL) then Canada is doomed. Their is no other situation that can occur. If USA is with the CP then France and GB is doomed. Without USA financial and manf support by 17 it is all over. Like people said above i would have a hard time seeing GB enter the war with the USA involved. If you think about GB what they would lose is vastly greater then they could win. Most likely what happens is :

1. AH sends ultimatum to Serbia
2. Russia backs Serbia
3. CP confirms support for AH (USA - Germany) Italy neutral
4. GB announces neutrality France and GB back down and a great power conference happens

If war happens without GB then :
1. Italy neutral -- AH much stronger vs Russia
2. Germany same in the east
3. France defeated at Marne, Paris captured, France stabilizes west of Paris, war ends in 1916

If GB then and Canada :
1. USA mobilizes blockades Canada
2. Cuts east west Canadian rail
3. Builds up forces
4. Overwhelms GB forces

Canada has to stay neutral to survive
 
It would be an interesting situation for Canada. If GB joins the war (assuming from the TL) then Canada is doomed. Their is no other situation that can occur. If USA is with the CP then France and GB is doomed. Without USA financial and manf support by 17 it is all over. Like people said above i would have a hard time seeing GB enter the war with the USA involved. If you think about GB what they would lose is vastly greater then they could win. Most likely what happens is :

1. AH sends ultimatum to Serbia
2. Russia backs Serbia
3. CP confirms support for AH (USA - Germany) Italy neutral
4. GB announces neutrality France and GB back down and a great power conference happens

If war happens without GB then :
1. Italy neutral -- AH much stronger vs Russia
2. Germany same in the east
3. France defeated at Marne, Paris captured, France stabilizes west of Paris, war ends in 1916

If GB then and Canada :
1. USA mobilizes blockades Canada
2. Cuts east west Canadian rail
3. Builds up forces
4. Overwhelms GB forces

Canada has to stay neutral to survive

All things being equal, Canada West of the Maritimes is probably overrun 1916-17. Britain probably ships its troops over before a formal declaration of war, Canadians mobilize, but everything west of the Great Lakes (save possibly Vancouver) falls to the US by the winter of 1914-15. The slog up the St. Lawrence takes longer but it has one inevitable outcome.

The Maritimes are harder to say because if you wanted to fight a war on the Maine - New Brunswick border you'd have to be a little loonie, and Nova Scotia requires an amphibious landing. Hard sell.
 

trajen777

Banned
All things being equal, Canada West of the Maritimes is probably overrun 1916-17. Britain probably ships its troops over before a formal declaration of war, Canadians mobilize, but everything west of the Great Lakes (save possibly Vancouver) falls to the US by the winter of 1914-15. The slog up the St. Lawrence takes longer but it has one inevitable outcome.

The Maritimes are harder to say because if you wanted to fight a war on the Maine - New Brunswick border you'd have to be a little loonie, and Nova Scotia requires an amphibious landing. Hard sell.

Agreed with all of your points. Additionally an observation that for every Brit soldier moved to Canada would be 1 less soldier on the BEF.
 
Agreed with all of your points. Additionally an observation that for every Brit soldier moved to Canada would be 1 less soldier on the BEF.

I'd argue that isn't strictly true as the threat of a war in North America most likely means that Britain develops a second BEF style force that can be sent to the Colonies for aid. It might mean Britain is incrementally stronger in 1914, but still not a mass mobilized army like 1915-16. Though, all things considered, even a two corps BEF 200,000 strong isn't that much more impressive in 1914, and 100,000 extra men in Canada won't look that impressive come 1915...
 
After a couple of pages of discussion I think the PoD of how and when the US turns to the CP and how that effects US military development is the missing link.

There is a vast difference between the US cosying up to the CP in the decade before WW1 and the US cruising along as per OTL until some event in WW1 causes them to rapidly change sympathies and declare war on the Entente, and then it matters a lot when such a rapid change takes place. For example between October 1915 and October 1916 the NG added some 36 artillery batteries and added a bunch of HQs making batteries into battalions and battalions into regiments.
 
Also don't forget that in OTL WWI America was leaning Entente for a while before declaring war and when they finally did knew that Germany couldn't actually do anything to America. So they effectively had all the time in the world to build up before shipping them to Europe. This would no doubt change if they were leaning CP and then declared war on the Entente because they could actually attack America at home and not just fight on foreign battlefields.
 
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