Terms of treaty if Germany wins WWI quickly

This has probably been done before, so if it has, forgive me.

I've been told that if the Schlieffen Plan had been followed all the way, it was possible that Germany could have won in France in only a month. Let's also assume that Germany defeats Russia fairly quickly, but longer than a month If this is the case, what could terms look like? Also ,would it be safe to say that Germany would try to gain independence (read puppet states) for the territory Russia officially lost because of Brest-Litovsk?
 

Deleted member 1487

If by some miracle the French made even more mistakes and the Germans less during the Moltke plan, the French would suffer losses in border areas especially including Briey and the rest of Lorraine, but also the front slopes of the Vosges. Luxembourg would have been annexed and Belgium would likely have lost small border areas and the right to build forts against Germany. France will also likely lose some colonies, but not all that many, but their major loss will be in status, as they will no longer be considered a great power after losing the war in a month. This all would require losing at least 25% of the field army during the first month or so of the war, with the Germans staying intact in the process.

The Russians would hold out for a time, but with the French suing for peace, don't expect the Russians to stay in long. Also expect the French loans to be defaulted on. The Russians will lose Poland for sure. Also, the Brits are going to have to swallow a very bitter pill to accept Germany winning so quickly; the Brits will either have lost the BEF or have them flee the continent for this even to be an option. AH is not going to gain or want anything other than to be thankful for having a short victorious and a crushed Serbia. Their power would be confirmed...sort of. Their armies will have been lost in Galicia, but the monarchy will have been on the winning side. The faith in the Habsburgs will have been fataly undermined, so expect to see a split in the Dual Monarchy in 1917.

Basically, Germany is now king on the continent, France has been humilated and probably forced to pay another indemnity, this time larger than in 1871 to ensure the French aren't able to afford it as easily. Also, expect the 3rd republic to fall apart and civil unrest led by the Socialists. Britain is now Germany's confirmed enemy, having never experienced this kind of humiliation (at least for several hundred years). Expect Germany to lose her colonies and probably her gains from France thanks to a dominant (on the ocean) Britain, who will maintain the blockade and sea war until Germany cuts a deal. Ultimately it won't be that harsh for either party, but it will be a trade: Germany loses the Eastern colonies, except perhaps for Tsingtao, while also losing land in East and South West Africa. In trade the Germans pick up French colonies, probabaly in the gold coast near Togoland and pick up some of the Congo from both Belgium and France.

Overall, Germany is confirmed as the continental power and the neutrals turn toward her as top dog and trading partner. Expect a version of Mittel Europa to evolve out of this power. In Germany, the socialists push for more liberalization of the governmet, but the conservatives and monarchy are confirmed in their authority to a degree. Trouble will ensue down the road.
 
If by some miracle the French made even more mistakes and the Germans less during the Moltke plan, the French would suffer losses in border areas especially including Briey and the rest of Lorraine, but also the front slopes of the Vosges. Luxembourg would have been annexed and Belgium would likely have lost small border areas and the right to build forts against Germany. France will also likely lose some colonies, but not all that many, but their major loss will be in status, as they will no longer be considered a great power after losing the war in a month. This all would require losing at least 25% of the field army during the first month or so of the war, with the Germans staying intact in the process.

The Russians would hold out for a time, but with the French suing for peace, don't expect the Russians to stay in long. Also expect the French loans to be defaulted on. The Russians will lose Poland for sure. Also, the Brits are going to have to swallow a very bitter pill to accept Germany winning so quickly; the Brits will either have lost the BEF or have them flee the continent for this even to be an option. AH is not going to gain or want anything other than to be thankful for having a short victorious and a crushed Serbia. Their power would be confirmed...sort of. Their armies will have been lost in Galicia, but the monarchy will have been on the winning side. The faith in the Habsburgs will have been fataly undermined, so expect to see a split in the Dual Monarchy in 1917.

Basically, Germany is now king on the continent, France has been humilated and probably forced to pay another indemnity, this time larger than in 1871 to ensure the French aren't able to afford it as easily. Also, expect the 3rd republic to fall apart and civil unrest led by the Socialists. Britain is now Germany's confirmed enemy, having never experienced this kind of humiliation (at least for several hundred years). Expect Germany to lose her colonies and probably her gains from France thanks to a dominant (on the ocean) Britain, who will maintain the blockade and sea war until Germany cuts a deal. Ultimately it won't be that harsh for either party, but it will be a trade: Germany loses the Eastern colonies, except perhaps for Tsingtao, while also losing land in East and South West Africa. In trade the Germans pick up French colonies, probabaly in the gold coast near Togoland and pick up some of the Congo from both Belgium and France.

Overall, Germany is confirmed as the continental power and the neutrals turn toward her as top dog and trading partner. Expect a version of Mittel Europa to evolve out of this power. In Germany, the socialists push for more liberalization of the governmet, but the conservatives and monarchy are confirmed in their authority to a degree. Trouble will ensue down the road.

About your last point, do you think it would be more likely for the German government to liberalize or refuse and risk an attempted revolution/coup by Socialists?
 
Most people doing Germany win WW1 tl's seem to assume that the Kaiser/Conservatives will be confirmed in their power and Germany will hold onto its gains no matter the length of the war.
Just as post 1871 you had Bismarck's welfare reforms I think the sole certainty of a CP victorious is that you are going to see similar liberalisation as a reward of victory and just as France eventually lost the will to keep on pushing Germany down and propping up the Little Entente I think you will be seeing the same thing occur but in reverse with Gerorgia, Ukraine etc. falling into the Russian orbit as Germany gets bored of propping them up and trades them for peace.
 
Most people doing Germany win WW1 tl's seem to assume that the Kaiser/Conservatives will be confirmed in their power and Germany will hold onto its gains no matter the length of the war.
Just as post 1871 you had Bismarck's welfare reforms I think the sole certainty of a CP victorious is that you are going to see similar liberalisation as a reward of victory and just as France eventually lost the will to keep on pushing Germany down and propping up the Little Entente I think you will be seeing the same thing occur but in reverse with Gerorgia, Ukraine etc. falling into the Russian orbit as Germany gets bored of propping them up and trades them for peace.

Aracnid

I don't think Germany will be spinning off Georgia and probably not the Ukraine in a short war. Especially not if its all over by the end of 1914. However expect Poland and at least some of the Baltics to become German satalites.

If it does go so hard line then you will probably have even harsher conditions in the west as well, possibly with occupation of all of Belgium and more of France. Also a much messier peace as resistance will probably continue in occupied areas in both east and west and Britain being forced to continue the war alone if necessary.

An early German victory, especially with a moderate peace, would probably strengthen the position of the conservatives. Their methods have been shown to work quickly and cheaply and there will be a rush of patriotic feeling. The Socialists will have been proved wrong and attempts by some to organise a refusal to fight will be painted as unpatriotic, if not treasonable. It will not stop change totally but will delay things.

A later victory, although markedly less likely, is more likely to see social change. The bulk of the population will have made heavy sacrifices and feel entitled to demand some changes. Also the sheer costs of what was expected to be a short victorious war, especially in human terms, will undermine the position of the military/aristocracy bloc.

Steve
 

Thande

Donor
Britain is now Germany's confirmed enemy, having never experienced this kind of humiliation (at least for several hundred years).

Britain had her armies chased out of Europe several times during the Napoleonic Wars, that wasn't considered massively humiliating. Obviously a century later there's the whole imperial prestige thing but still, it's not as if we lost a naval battle or something.
 
Don't forget that the CPs would make the Allies pay for their whole war effort. Even after a short war, this would amount to several billions.
 
wiking

All too accurate I fear for a quick German victory. Going to led to a highly unstable situation in Europe as a lot more people will be unhappy with the new status quo.

The status of Russian resistance may depend on what terms Germany offer. If their relatively moderate then Russia may well make a quick peace. If the Germans try and demand too much then its in Russia's interests to fight on and it could be very nasty for the Germans if they try advancing too deep into Russia, Especially with the technology at the time.

I find it interesting that you take for granted an even larger indemnity for France in TTL when so many people complain about the reparations issue OTL.;)

Germany may also claim French colonies but I can't see them actually getting any. Under the circumstances Britain will seek to pinch out any such threat and probable settle down for a long haul conflict. Whether the BEF gets involved in the collapse of France or escapes will probably make very little difference from that. This will cause problems if/when Germany starts using unrestricted U boat warfare.

I'm not sure the various neutrals will turn towards Germany, if given any choice. After all its just gratuitously attacked one of them. Not to mention by your suggested victory conditions annexing territory from it and opening it up for another attack.

Steve

If by some miracle the French made even more mistakes and the Germans less during the Moltke plan, the French would suffer losses in border areas especially including Briey and the rest of Lorraine, but also the front slopes of the Vosges. Luxembourg would have been annexed and Belgium would likely have lost small border areas and the right to build forts against Germany. France will also likely lose some colonies, but not all that many, but their major loss will be in status, as they will no longer be considered a great power after losing the war in a month. This all would require losing at least 25% of the field army during the first month or so of the war, with the Germans staying intact in the process.

The Russians would hold out for a time, but with the French suing for peace, don't expect the Russians to stay in long. Also expect the French loans to be defaulted on. The Russians will lose Poland for sure. Also, the Brits are going to have to swallow a very bitter pill to accept Germany winning so quickly; the Brits will either have lost the BEF or have them flee the continent for this even to be an option. AH is not going to gain or want anything other than to be thankful for having a short victorious and a crushed Serbia. Their power would be confirmed...sort of. Their armies will have been lost in Galicia, but the monarchy will have been on the winning side. The faith in the Habsburgs will have been fataly undermined, so expect to see a split in the Dual Monarchy in 1917.

Basically, Germany is now king on the continent, France has been humilated and probably forced to pay another indemnity, this time larger than in 1871 to ensure the French aren't able to afford it as easily. Also, expect the 3rd republic to fall apart and civil unrest led by the Socialists. Britain is now Germany's confirmed enemy, having never experienced this kind of humiliation (at least for several hundred years). Expect Germany to lose her colonies and probably her gains from France thanks to a dominant (on the ocean) Britain, who will maintain the blockade and sea war until Germany cuts a deal. Ultimately it won't be that harsh for either party, but it will be a trade: Germany loses the Eastern colonies, except perhaps for Tsingtao, while also losing land in East and South West Africa. In trade the Germans pick up French colonies, probabaly in the gold coast near Togoland and pick up some of the Congo from both Belgium and France.

Overall, Germany is confirmed as the continental power and the neutrals turn toward her as top dog and trading partner. Expect a version of Mittel Europa to evolve out of this power. In Germany, the socialists push for more liberalization of the governmet, but the conservatives and monarchy are confirmed in their authority to a degree. Trouble will ensue down the road.
 
Some minor border changes for Belgium, France and Serbia. Congress Poland becomes a German puppet and should Romania join the central powers, some lands would be gained by it.

Some colonial territories would go to Germany but the bulk of French possessions would remain unspoiled.


The real difference would be military, Germany would mainly limitate the rate of Russian and French re-armament.
 

Deleted member 1487

Germany may also claim French colonies but I can't see them actually getting any. Under the circumstances Britain will seek to pinch out any such threat and probable settle down for a long haul conflict. Whether the BEF gets involved in the collapse of France or escapes will probably make very little difference from that. This will cause problems if/when Germany starts using unrestricted U boat warfare.

I'm not sure the various neutrals will turn towards Germany, if given any choice. After all its just gratuitously attacked one of them. Not to mention by your suggested victory conditions annexing territory from it and opening it up for another attack.
Steve

I very much agree that Germany getting French colonies is going to be very hard for them, considering Britain is not going to willingly allow Germany to gain abroad after kicking them off the continent. The only problem with the long haul scenario is that it disrupts trade, and the British business folk are not going to want to bog down trade in a war they cannot win, where all that can be gained is the status quo. Germany should and I think would willingly trade colonies for gains on the continent, especially against France. Russia is going to get off easy, relatively, as they will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. They have beaten the Austro-Hungarians and driven them back, but if the Germans can get their armies to the East and chew up the Russian armies during September and October, there might be enough basis for a negotiation.

Personally I think this is all ASB, as the French were not going to give up if they lost Paris and still had even some armies in the field. Germany would be tied down holding down France, giving the Russians time to invade Germany...they think. Honestly it would take until 1915 until the French gave up with most of their country occupied and their armies destroyed, while the Russians and Brits not having accomplished enough. Honestly the shortest war would end in 1915 IMHO. France made irrelevant and a minor associate power with Paris surrounded and under siege, very much like 1870, but with allies. The comparison would be too painful, especially when Paris falls, while the Germans are overrunning Russia.

This all requires German to destroy at least the French 5th army in August and possibly the 3rd in September, causing the frontier to collapse and all the fortified areas like Nancy, Epinal, and Verdun to be surrounded and fall. But even with all this borderline ASB things happening, France still has the means to fight with Britain and Russia in the mix, especially with AH chewed up in August/September in Galicia.
 

Markus

Banned
Don't forget that the CPs would make the Allies pay for their whole war effort. Even after a short war, this would amount to several billions.

I doubt it for last time Germany did not and if the war ends quickly as specified by the OP there would not be much to pay for in the first place.

If France is crushed in the summer of 1914 Russia would not continue the war. Their main reason for the alliance with France was IIRC their hostility towards A-H, not Germany.

@stevep:

So just like in OTL after the ToV: a highly unstable situation in Europe as a lot more people were unhappy with the new status quo.
 
I agree with Wiking that an end of war in 1914 is highly unlikely, it would take until 1915 for the French to accept they really have been beaten.
As for Britain remaining belligerent, a peace agreement between Britain and Germany would be the only way to get the Germans out of Belgium again.
Early in the war, Germany had no peace aims in the east - especially not Poland. The Germans already had more Poles than they wanted. Russia could have gotten a white peace. (This changed over time. As the war progressed, German aims more and more became matching with what they actually had in possession.)
Concerning colonies, the Germans never had attempted to defend them in earnest. Colonial questions would be regulated at the conference table in Europe. (However, taking away the colonies was the only good thing the ToV did to Germany.)
 

Typo

Banned
Russia definitely gets off light, even in 1918 they could have gotten away with losing only Poland and Luthania, probably even less if they bargained.

Britain gets a white peace, if prestige allows it they might even get a few minor colonial gains.

The real loser is of course, France, who might not even lose that much more territory. Such a quick humiliation might ironically damage the French national will to fight less than OTL WWI did. Which makes a third round more likely.
 

Deleted member 1487

Russia definitely gets off light, even in 1918 they could have gotten away with losing only Poland and Luthania, probably even less if they bargained.

Britain gets a white peace, if prestige allows it they might even get a few minor colonial gains.

The real loser is of course, France, who might not even lose that much more territory. Such a quick humiliation might ironically damage the French national will to fight less than OTL WWI did. Which makes a third round more likely.

For all those who talk about a French resurgence and WW2-esque war in the wake of a German victory, this is how it would happen. The French lose big early, becoming a regional power in the process, but not humbled by as horrific of human or territorial losses. This would be a recipie for fascism and another round of violence. I guess we could then see a German Maginot line of sorts but with a better border situation thanks to taking the Vosges and the rest of Lorriane. Of course the opposite could happen too, the French are so embarrassed and humiliated that they reject war as an option with Germany. Russia won't be the same after any version of the war and probably would slided into bloody revolution with the army being more loyal than OTL. So the situation probably won't be right for the Entente to go another round, especially if Germany is going to grab the German parts of Austria-Hungary (after 1917 and the coming renewal treaty, I am convinced a break is going to happen. The Hungarians are going to demand a separate army, which Kaiser Karl is not going to allow...trouble ensues for all).

Germany will be the greatest power and not have its manpower ground down in the war, nor will it have suffered the starvation blockade (at least not enough to actually starve). The Uboot gets confirmed as the only means of offensive naval warfare, as the navy really never left port to challenge the Brits. It will also gain money off the deal, confirming a rather unfortunate persumption about war for Germany.

The French are likely to lose lots of money to reparations and to Russia cancelling her loans to France (why should they pay France back when they abandoned them in a war where they signed a treaty not to?). Britain gets off lite, but not without realizing that she did not dictate terms. Russia falls into revolution at some point, though probably survives, but diminished in many ways. Poland will probably be lost in if the war lasts until 1915, but will be an independent buffer state with a Habsburg monarch and little actual independence.
 
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