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Just to add to the numerous WW2 Japan related threads we're having ATM, I've been doing some searching back through the forum on threads about if there had been no Pacific Theater in WW2. Obviously Japan staged it's attacks on the U.S. and SE Asia because Roosevelt's embargos meant that it would have run out of resources like oil by the middle of 1942. Even then many in the military and government knew that Japan's chances of succeeding in the medium term were hopeless. Hirohito's brother even implored him not to order the attack, although some comments on previous threads that I found raised the possibility that if he had done that he could well have been assasinated or effectively deposed into being a figurehead by the hardliners. Therefore I think that it was inevitable that Japan was going to try and seize S.E. Asia.

The scenario then I had in mind is one we've talked about a lot recently, the British in Malaya have managed to get their act together and defeat Yamashita's Army. This denies Japan access to the oilfields of Sumatra and Burma and Malaya's rubber, they would still have taken the Borneo oilfields but with Singapore available to use as a base, Allied submarines would probably have sunk most of the tankers heading back to Japan as they did IOTL. Japan has enough oil to continue the War into autumn/winter 1942 or possibly early 1943 and then it's military and economy start to come apart through lack of fuel.

At this point enough of the leadership realise that the position is hopeless and decide to ask the Allies for an armistice, with the war in Europe still carrying on as IOTL, Roosevelt and Churchill are anxious to free up resources for the invasion of Europe so they decide to offer terms to end the Pacific War early. This is before Casablanca and the issuing of unconditional Axis surrender as a war aim. The terms are as follows;

1. Immediate surrender to Allied forces of all Japanese forces outside of the Home Islands. Those found to have committed war crimes will face a tribunial.
2. Surrender of all IJN vessels larger than 10,000 tonnes. (I'd imagine the Japanese would scuttle ships like the Yamato rather than surrender them)
3. Japan to withdraw from Manchuria, Korea and other possessions outside the Home Islands and to renounce all territorial claims to these lands.
4. Those persons accused of ordering attrocities in China and other places who are currently within the Home Islands such as Tojo, are to be surrendered to the Allies for trial, no Japanese prisoners will be repatriated until this has been complied with.
5. A progressive lifting of the embargos conditional on the above terms being honoured.

The Allies also make it clear that if the terms are rejected Japan will be subjected to a naval blockade. In one of the threads I found earlier CalBear had posted that even IOTL if the Allies hadn't dropped the atomic bomb or invaded Japan the blockade and the consequent lack of food would probably have reduced Japan's population at the end of 1946 back to it's 1700 level through mass starvation. Assuming the Japanese accept these terms how would it's subsequent history have developed? No occupation means that Japan would still be a militarised society with a God-Emperor and as the Pacific bombing campaign hadn't happened it's industries would remain intact but Japan's military would have been neutered by the War and it would be no immediate threat to it's neighbours.

I think this scenario could see a deeply bitter and resentful Japan looking for revenge over it's humiliation, it probably does not become the economic powerhouse that it did during the 1960's and becomes more isolationist, possibly becoming this TL's North Korea although not as depraved, while some more extreme elements dream of exacting revenge. What do other posters think of this? Would Japan have asked for terms in this scenario and would the Allies have agreed?
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