Tennessee in a Confederate Victory TL.

So let's just say the CSA says TN is non-negotiable and gets to keep it, Kentucky MAY or MAY NOT be in the CSA. So Tennessee could be in 2 different situations.

1. Kentucky (either by Super-Perryville or Plebecite) is in the CSA and majority pro-Confederate Tennessee is insulated from the yankees by the state of Kentucky, Nashville is the other largest industrial city outside of Richmond by war's end, Nashville, Knoxville, Memphis and Chattanooga are all intact.

or

2. After a victory in 1863/64, Tennessee is the CSA's border frontier and Nashville, the other big industrial postwar city is in okay shape while being a mere 2 counties away from an international border while other Tennessee cities are in shambles.

In both scenarios, how does the state look socially, politically and culturally?
 
In both scenarios, how does the state look socially, politically and culturally?

The most intense pro union area was eastern T.N. (though there was still a sizable pro confederate minority in the area). Some eastern counties were 3-1 union over confederate.

Anyways, I can see either a very autonomous east Tennessee or a break away region ala West Virginia. It might depend on how decisive the confederate victory was. In either case, I think 1863-64 is too late for a CSA victory. If the CSA is to win, they must knock the union out militarily and politicaly in 1862.
 
The most intense pro union area was eastern T.N. (though there was still a sizable pro confederate minority in the area). Some eastern counties were 3-1 union over confederate.

Anyways, I can see either a very autonomous east Tennessee or a break away region ala West Virginia. It might depend on how decisive the confederate victory was. In either case, I think 1863-64 is too late for a CSA victory. If the CSA is to win, they must knock the union out militarily and politicaly in 1862.

It's what I'm counting on, but the CSA had a firm hold on all of East TN until late 1863, but if it's a late 62 victory, then East TN (and probably Kentucky so the Cumberland Gap is secure) is firmly in the CSA.

Decisive as, say, Lee bloodynoses McLellan in Maryland and gains British/French recognition coupled with Bragg taking Kentucky as the best case scenario for Tennessee as a state.
 
Decisive as, say, Lee bloodynoses McLellan in Maryland and gains British/French recognition coupled with Bragg taking Kentucky as the best case scenario for Tennessee as a state.

I am thinking that any confederate military victories (ability to fight) would have to coincide with a political event in the north that takes away the will to fight.

Shattered federal armies could be replaced. Also, the CSA - Federal military quality gap was steadily narrowing. By say early 1863, the CSA no longer had the ability to inflict truly strategic defeats on the federal forces. In the end, there needs to be a series of military setbacks and a political collpase for the CSA to win.
 
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