Teddy Roosevelt's Third Term - 1913 - 1917

So if Roosevelt was President in 1914, and was able to negotiate with the various nations involved, and World War One doesn't happen, what happens from there? Does Europe simply end up with another, far nastier war in the 1920's or 1930's? And what happens with US politics during/after Roosevelt's third term? I'm assuming he doesn't get a fourth.

Good question. It all depends of course on the terms of the solution.

If Austria sees every other Power aligned against them and Hungry opposed to going to war as it was IOTL, it has no choice but to back down. What happens then is the key. If the humiliation is great enough then it may even lead to the collapse of the monarchy. If that happens, then Willies power becomes shaky in Berlin since his power will be seen to be less than inevitable and more power will gravitate to the parliament.

Unless there is a permanent solution in the form of machinery to resolve the underlying and chronic problems in Europe a future war appears inevitable. Just how much the governments in Paris and Berlin in particular, but also in London and Moscow, are willing to allow arbitration to be binding is the point. The agreements reached on arms limitations and other issues just prior to the outbreak of war shows these governments were willing to go down this path.

I think TR and his influence is somewhat overrated. Why would Austria and Germany just agree to accept his arbitration? The US has no military, diplomatic or economic power to back up any demands. His negotiated peace on the Russo-Japanese war came when Russia was more than willing to accept virtually any terms that would get it out of a sticky situation and Japan was in no position to carry on the conflict and had achieved its aims anyway. Both AH and Germany were supremely confident that they would win any war they embarked on.
 
I wonder whether TR might have had some influence and might have persuaded Austria to be satisfied with the total humiliation of Serbia, which was indeed available.

However the idea of his 'negotiating' is a bit unlikely. It would have been astonishing if he had gone to Europe, and ASB for European leaders to go the America. We are talking about long sea voyages followed by long railroad journies.
 
I really admire TR, but I don't think he could have made Europe avoid the war, they just wanted it too much. With the Russo-Japanese war, both sides knew they couldn't keep fighting (Russians worried about casualties at home and discomforting losses for a short war, Japan about Russian numerical superiority) and TR was good at getting them to agree to a relatively fair peace.

But I think that keeping Europe from blowing up would be worse anyway, keeping the pressure on. With an American president who has close ties with Germany and England, and having helped resolve one of the Moroccan crises between Germany and France, he'd be a natural mediator between the groups when the war bogs down into the trenches. Meanwhile, Roosevelt would surely be pushing for increased militarization which would increase the desire of the Central Powers to seek a peace faster. You could see the end of hostilities by '15 or '16.

An earlier cease fire would be a great benefit to everyone involved, with Germany still capable of continuing the war the harsh penalties of OTL almost couldn't happen. TR might also push for some of the smaller nations to get a seat at the big table.
 
See, that's what I was thinking initally. Both sides would get nasty-deep into the war, start losing thousands of men each day, and then TR would ride over the hill (as it were), to help negotiate a settlement.
 
Actually, another thought. One of TR's sons died during the war. From what I understand this really crushed his spirit and might've contributed to him dying in 1919. If he ends the war in 1915 or 1916, then his son would still be alive. I wonder how that might affect the rest of TR's life.

Also, if he did negotiate a settlement in time for the 1916 elections, maybe, just maybe, he'd be able to get a fourth term, if he wanted one.
 

burmafrd

Banned
TR contracted some nasty bugs when he went into the Amazon after leaving office in the OTL. That more then anything else sapped his strength and in the end led to his death. Losing his son was a major blow but he had a lot of other children so I really doubt it was as big as some claim.
 
TR contracted some nasty bugs when he went into the Amazon after leaving office in the OTL. That more then anything else sapped his strength and in the end led to his death. Losing his son was a major blow but he had a lot of other children so I really doubt it was as big as some claim.
Yes, and that will certainly not happen here, given the POD. So, all in all, this TL will (quite likely) have a healthier TR, thus leaving him more time to do things.
 
While the trip to africa really did have an effect on his health the death of his son in World War I was a crushing Blow. The Son was being groomed as TR's political heir and his death marked the turning point in TR's health. Still if he had lived he would have won the Republican nonination to run fro President and probably would have been elected in a landslide.
 

burmafrd

Banned
It was the health effects of his safari's in bad places that really had a huge effect on him. That came BEFORE he lost his son. Losing his son compounded the effects. BUT if he was still healthy and strong it would not have made such a huge effect. Depression works hardest on those already weakened. Not to mention that its less likely he loses his son if he is president. Commanders would work harder to see to it that the son is not in so much danger no matter what if he is the son of a SITTING president.
 
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