Teddy Roosevelt's Third Term - 1913 - 1917

[WilyBadger]

So I'm trying to think up a decent way TR could've had a third term. Of course he could've just ran in 1908 and won (I almost typed that as 2008, which is an interesting thought in of itself), but I'm thinking about him winning in 1912.

What I'm currently thinking is that Taft dies of a heart attack sometime around June of 1912. Vice-President Sherman is sworn in, but during the intense nomination fight with Teddy Roosevelt, he, too, dies in office in early August (in OTL he died in office as Vice-President October of 1912). That would give the Presidency to James Beauchamp "Champ" Clark, a Democrat.

Now the Presidency has switched parties, Wilson is trying his best to get the nomination, and Teddy Roosevelt is able to step up, galvanize the Republican party behind him and sweep into office.

Sound plausible?

Once he's there, I'm thinking lots of things would turn out differently. I could imagine him helping to negotiate and end to World War One (like he did with the Russo-Japanese War), before it gets really nasty, ending it in late 1914 or early 1915. With that, you might not end up with WWII. Possibly the Russian Revolution might not have happened, or if it had, it might've been very different. As an interesting side effect, Taft wouldn't have ended up on the Supreme Court, so I don't know what effect that would have on Court rulings.

Anyhow, opinions?

 

[WilyBadger]

Hmmm... hold the phone, here, I might've made an error. Yes, NOW the Speaker of the House is third in line for the throne, as it were, but that doesn't seem to have been the case until after 1912. From what I can tell, it looks like it would've been the President Pro Tempore of the Senate who would've been the president. Problem is, apparently there were several individuals who held that post from 1911 - 1913 ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidents_pro_tempore_of_the_United_States_Senate,_1911-1913 ).

Well, well. This adds some bacon to the soup, I guess. It looks like one Augustus Octavius Bacon would've been PPTitS during early August of 1912. How appropriate. Oh, well. This still means a Democrat takes the reigns as President at this point, even if he does sound vaguely like a Roman general (though at least that doesn't carry the overtones of someone named Patraeus running the show in Iraq).

So I guess my original idea still stands, more or less. :

 

[black angel]

Taft was a lot healthier than people think. in OTL he lived till 1930. Taft and TR were very good friends before 1912 so maybe if TR doesn't go after Taft in the press they can cut a deal TR president Taft veep

 

[WilyBadger]

Well, except by the time the election of 1912 rolled around, wasn't TR royally pissed at Taft?

 

[black angel]

Well, except by the time the election of 1912 rolled around, wasn't TR royally pissed at Taft?

true he was. however if he'd asked nicely for his old job i think Taft would of given it to him. Taft HATED being the President, it was TR lambasting him in the press that made him fight for the job, TR and Taft were good friends and TR attacks in the Press hurt Taft deeply very deeply. if TR had just keep his mouth shut he would of been President in 1912.

another idea is killing Wilson, he was the only "Progressive" Democrat running, if he dies before the nomination then Champ Clark or William Jennings Bryan may get the nomination which would trash the Democratic Party and give the Progressives the win

 

[wilcoxchar]

Also, didn't Taft really want to be Chief Justice of the Supreme Court? So maybe Roosevelt promises him the position if he is elected again. Then we just need Melville Fuller (OTL Chief Justice from 1888 to 1910) to live a few years longer and Taft can agree, on the reasonable chance that Fuller will die soon.

 

[jmberry]

So I'm trying to think up a decent way TR could've had a third term. Of course he could've just ran in 1908 and won (I almost typed that as 2008, which is an interesting thought in of itself), but I'm thinking about him winning in 1912.

Reminds me of the time my high school teacher passed out a study sheet about the Antebellum Era, and one of the questions was why did Henry Clay lose the 1944 election. Any case anyone is wondering, I put down the technically correct answer: He had been dead for 92 years.

 

[Electric Monk]

So I'm trying to think up a decent way TR could've had a third term. Of course he could've just ran in 1908 and won (I almost typed that as 2008, which is an interesting thought in of itself), but I'm thinking about him winning in 1912.

What I'm currently thinking is that Taft dies of a heart attack sometime around June of 1912. Vice-President Sherman is sworn in, but during the intense nomination fight with Teddy Roosevelt, he, too, dies in office in early August (in OTL he died in office as Vice-President October of 1912). That would give the Presidency to James Beauchamp "Champ" Clark, a Democrat.

The simple version is to have Roosevelt win at the convention (as he came close to doing), and easily win the general election (as the Republicans would have, barring zombie Grover Cleveland).

He could, as mentioned, offer Taft a seat on the Supreme Court as a consolation prize.

Put simply, any Republican would have won any Presidential election from 1868 until the Great Depression… and they basically did. Only Cleveland, twice & non-consecutively and Wilson with split Republican-Progressive opponents and again with incumbency managed in that time period. It was close a few times, but even at the outside the Democrats might have 20-24 years instead of the 16 in 64 they managed.

 

[stevep]

Sound plausible?

Once he's there, I'm thinking lots of things would turn out differently. I could imagine him helping to negotiate and end to World War One (like he did with the Russo-Japanese War), before it gets really nasty, ending it in late 1914 or early 1915. With that, you might not end up with WWII. Possibly the Russian Revolution might not have happened, or if it had, it might've been very different. As an interesting side effect, Taft wouldn't have ended up on the Supreme Court, so I don't know what effect that would have on Court rulings.

Anyhow, opinions?

WilyBadger

Getting him into power may well be but I rather doubt he could get a negotiated early peace in WWI. The degree of mistrust, reaching loathing and hatred in some case and the fact the Germans had occupied a large part of eastern France made any sort of agreement very difficult while both sides believed they could get more by fighting on. Possibly by 1916-17 you might have the basis for negotiations, possibly with the implied threat of US intervention if one side was obstructive enough. However by the Teddy's running out of time and Germany, presuming the military are in control by that time, will probably underestimate the potential impact of the US.

Steve

 

[EvolvedSaurian]

Also remember that he was on the last legs of his life. His health was getting steadily worse, and the burden of running the country again might tip him over the edge.

 

[Ynnead]

Also remember that he was on the last legs of his life. His health was getting steadily worse, and the burden of running the country again might tip him over the edge.

I thought it was a later trip to africa that shorten his life

 

[Lord Insane]

Also remember that he was on the last legs of his life. His health was getting steadily worse, and the burden of running the country again might tip him over the edge.

Altough... didn't that South American expedition thing, and the illness that follow it (if I remember correctly) and possibly the death of his son Quentin (in the Great War) contribute to that, too?
Since both those might not occur in TTL...
Given that, he might live longer in TTL, not shorter, despite a miore burdening job!

 

[1940LaSalle]

WilyBadger

Getting him into power may well be but I rather doubt he could get a negotiated early peace in WWI. The degree of mistrust, reaching loathing and hatred in some case and the fact the Germans had occupied a large part of eastern France made any sort of agreement very difficult while both sides believed they could get more by fighting on. Possibly by 1916-17 you might have the basis for negotiations, possibly with the implied threat of US intervention if one side was obstructive enough. However by the Teddy's running out of time and Germany, presuming the military are in control by that time, will probably underestimate the potential impact of the US.

Steve

I'll disagree respectfully and most vociferously. TR enjoyed unprecedented prestige in Europe (see, for example, the photo of him on horseback in colloquy with Kaiser Wilhelm). Couple that with his "been there/done that" credentials from negotiating an end to the Russo-Japanese War and the would-be combatants would certainly listen to an offer of mediation, almost as soon as the ultimatum was issued from Vienna to Belgrade. And he could have made it stick, too--possibly avoiding war altogether.

 

[Lord Insane]

Even he might have a hard time making an early peace.
However, he might be able to use his diplomatic credentials to stop the Great War (as we know it) from starting in the first place. Franz Ferdinand's assassination might lead to simply a smallish Balkan Crisis that peters out, instead of to the Black Week that ended up with most of Europe (and thus, the world) at war with each other.

 

[Bopater]

How would Teddy have handled the Lusitania? I believe that he openly supported the Allies before that even happened and thought Wilson had a weak foriegn policy.

 

[Derek Jackson]

How would Teddy have handled the Lusitania? I believe that he openly supported the Allies before that even happened and thought Wilson had a weak foriegn policy.

If events in Europe followed roughly OTL up to the Lusitania's sinking I think that TR would have declared war on Germany.

 

[1940LaSalle]

Even he might have a hard time making an early peace.
However, he might be able to use his diplomatic credentials to stop the Great War (as we know it) from starting in the first place. Franz Ferdinand's assassination might lead to simply a smallish Balkan Crisis that peters out, instead of to the Black Week that ended up with most of Europe (and thus, the world) at war with each other.

Thank you!

Glad someone else sees things the same way I do (see the post directly above).

 

[stevep]

Thank you!

Glad someone else sees things the same way I do (see the post directly above).

1940LaSalle

On that point I would agree it might well work. Given his prestige and the fact the US was a neutral power he would have a chance, possibly a good one, provided he realised the importance of acting early enough. Think its a different matter once the armies started marching because then both sides are committed, or at least the core Franco-Russian and German-Austrian blocs.

Steve

 

[1940LaSalle]

1940LaSalle

On that point I would agree it might well work. Given his prestige and the fact the US was a neutral power he would have a chance, possibly a good one, provided he realised the importance of acting early enough. Think its a different matter once the armies started marching because then both sides are committed, or at least the core Franco-Russian and German-Austrian blocs.

Steve

I'm thinking shortly after the Austrian ultimatum was issued: if I recall correctly, it happened in late June 1914 and had a period of 30 days before it expired. My guess is that it might not be acted upon immediately--it was seen as "a spirited note" (Kaiser Wilhelm) at first but not much more--but maybe shortly after Independence Day, with a couple of weeks to go and Congress in summer recess, TR would put forth the idea to Vienna and Belgrade, making absolutely certain that London, Berlin, St. Petersburg, and Paris (OK, Rome also) were copied. Ironically, it seems to me that he might have gotten a major assist from Wilhelm, ever the opportunist, who would have seen this as a chance to be a great peace-maker. So: with a genuine offer from Washington and not-inconsiderable pressure from Berlin, the right thing gets done for mostly the right/partially the wrong reasons.

However, once the shooting starts, it might be a tougher proposition. Maybe once the armies hunker down for the winter, it could be feasible. If not, and the Lusitania is sunk as in OTL, then it's all over: TR goes before Congress within 24 hours, demanding and getting a declaration of war. It's not entirely out of the question then that there might be enough in the way of US hulls at Jutland to turn a Pyrrhic German victory/stalemate into something along the lines of a moderate Allied victory, conceivably shortening the war.

 

[WilyBadger]

So if Roosevelt was President in 1914, and was able to negotiate with the various nations involved, and World War One doesn't happen, what happens from there? Does Europe simply end up with another, far nastier war in the 1920's or 1930's? And what happens with US politics during/after Roosevelt's third term? I'm assuming he doesn't get a fourth.