Teddy Roosevelt And World War I: An Alternative History by Jeff Nilsson

[Mikestone8]

To be fair you are making the fallacy that Congress in 1914/15 will be the same ITTL as OTL but we do have two years of a Roosevelt presidency to consider when determining the mid-term elections which may lean in his favor. Plus if that fails there still executive orders that he could use.

There is nno reason to think that changing the composition of Congress would make any great difference Until 1917 *both* parties were firmly opposed to war. Indeed, even in April 1917 most of the votes against war came from Midwestern Republicans, so having more Reps in congress doesn't make much dfference on this issue..

And any increase in US armed forces would have to be paid for. TR could not raise the money by executive order.

Also, keep in mind that TR cannot openly advocate war (or even be suspected of wanting it) if he intends to seek another term in 1916. To do so would guarantee his defeat. OTL, even TR's ^endorsement* probably cost Hughes the Presidency. How much more if TR himself were running.

 

[nick_crenshaw82]

@McPherson How much of an effect did Roosevelt 1914 Amazon expedition have on his health and did it help to contribute to his death? Does this an if he won the 1912 presidential election mean that Roosevelt may have lived longer?

 

[McPherson]

@McPherson How much of an effect did Roosevelt 1914 Amazon expedition have on his health and did it help to contribute to his death? Does this [mean that] if he [had] won the 1912 presidential election mean that Roosevelt may have lived longer?

It cost him a decade. But then this did him no good, either.

I believe TR would have found the 1912 Presidency rough. Being President, even in those days, was starting to take a toll on the office holder.

File:Theodore Roosevelt by Rockwood, 1900.jpg - Wikimedia ...

» You’ve Got Mail: “It takes more than that to kill a Bull ...

The pictures are spaced to be generally before and after the Roosevelt presidency to show the toll the office took on the man. And around the time he was shot, you can see the wear and tear of those 12 years. So an election in 1912 would have meant no Amazon expedition, but he still would have barely survived WWI. It is my contention that he would have lived happier though, and so would the country.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Are we assuming an AEF made available in '15/early '16 is a "separate but equal" member of the Entente, or subordinate to one of the "old boys"?

Basically, could we see an AEF landing in the "Underbelly" or even the Middle East, or would they be fed into the Western Front, to take up the slack from the British and French?

What would Roosevelt's view be on "Imperialist Adventures"? Would he be supportive of Mesopotamian Campaigns and things like Sykes-Picot, or would he be a moderating influence from the inside, proposing independence from freed nations as the Central Powers come apart?

 

[McPherson]

Are we assuming an AEF made available in '15/early '16 is a "separate but equal" member of the Entente, or subordinate to one of the "old boys"?

Based on Teddy's actions in Morocco and Venezuela, he would expect to be an equal partner. With good reason.

Basically, could we see an AEF landing in the "Underbelly" or even the Middle East, or would they be fed into the Western Front, to take up the slack from the British and French?

Depends on the causus belli. The incidents of German terrorism and espionage, would imply American operations against Imperial Germany and not against Austria Hungary or Turkey. If the Japanese have not moved in the Pacific Ocean then the German territories would be immediately attacked with US forces to hand. The object is to act immediately as that was Roosevelt's nature.

Operations in the Western Front would begin as soon as practical. Aid to Russia begins as soon as practical.

What would Roosevelt's view be on "Imperialist Adventures"? Would he be supportive of Mesopotamian Campaigns and things like Sykes-Picot, or would he be a moderating influence from the inside, proposing independence from freed nations as the Central Powers come apart?

After Cuba and the Filipino American War he could be cautious. He would not be thrilled with the first Mesopotamian campaign, though he might see the necessity of the second one. Sykes Picot was very like some of the dirty stinking rotten imperialist colonialist deals he pulled to get the Panama canal done, but TR could be and was very hypocritical in his "American" way. He would have to be convinced that the deal was necessary to defeat Imperial Germany quickly and advance US war aims directly or else he would oppose it.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Based on Teddy's actions in Morocco and Venezuela, he would expect to be an equal partner. With good reason.

Fair enough. America certainly has the money, resources and manpower pool to be considered as such. I just wondered if there would be ‘parenting’ of combat units until up to speed. American units can be assigned to quieter sections of the front I suppose, while CinC US gains a seat at the top table.

Depends on the causus belli. The incidents of German terrorism and espionage, would imply American operations against Imperial Germany and not against Austria Hungary or Turkey.

Is there a chance the US declares War only on Germany, limiting combat to just US vs German fronts?

If the Japanese have not moved in the Pacific Ocean then the German territories would be immediately attacked with US forces to hand. The object is to act immediately as that was Roosevelt's nature.

I imagine the Japanese would be spurred into action by an American DoW, bit I can see the rationale behind that. What would the Americans be able to use “to hand” in the Pacific? I take it German New Guinea would be the target? They’d have to move quickly to beat the Japanese to the punch.

Operations in the Western Front would begin as soon as practical. Aid to Russia begins as soon as practical.

I hadn’t considered aid to Russia.

After Cuba and the Filipino American War he could be cautious. He would not be thrilled with the first Mesopotamian campaign, though he might see the necessity of the second one.

Not thrilled due to the failure, or the objectives?

Sykes Picot was very like some of the dirty stinking rotten imperialist colonialist deals he pulled to get the Panama canal done, but TR could be and was very hypocritical in his "American" way. He would have to be convinced that the deal was necessary to defeat Imperial Germany quickly and advance US war aims directly or else he would oppose it.

So no chance of the rumoured American Middle East Mandate coming off under Teddy? An American protectorate over Jerusalem wouldn’t appeal?

 

[nick_crenshaw82]

They’d have to move quickly to beat the Japanese to the punch.

Shouldn't be too difficult with US forces in the Philippines at the time. The rule question is would this have any affect on Filipino freedom efforts?

Is there a chance the US declares War only on Germany, limiting combat to just US vs German fronts

Even if they did it wouldn't last long because Austria would declare war against the Americans in support of Germany.

Aid to Russia begins as soon as practical.

I hadn’t considered aid to Russia.

Would such prevent the October Revolution?

I just wondered if there would be ‘parenting’ of combat units until up to speed.

@McPherson and concluded that a possible solution to this could be to have invalidated French and English officers and sergeants implementing a von Steuben method style of training with American officers and sergeants.

An American protectorate over Jerusalem wouldn’t appeal?

Why?

 

[McPherson]

What a lot of complex questions.

Fair enough. America certainly has the money, resources and manpower pool to be considered as such. I just wondered if there would be ‘parenting’ of combat units until up to speed. American units can be assigned to quieter sections of the front I suppose, while CinC US gains a seat at the top table.

I have to tell you, that I think Teddy's army would still have problems with outdated tactics and operational art. I would like to think that whoever Teddy chooses as ground forces commander would be wise enough to "train up" with the French. Teddy, himself, would be far more cognizant of the need to train up and get the AEF up to speed, than Pershing was, having personally participated as a field grade with the First Volunteer Calvary in the land campaign shambles that was the 7th Corps operation at Santiago de Cuba. Kettle Hill was a disaster and TR was a part of that fighting. Helped to retrieve it. Roosevelt knew that storming a trench line was not as Pershing "imagined".

John Henry Parker​

Expect Mister Roosevelt's army to go machine gun shopping and to be keenly interested in tanks and mobile artillery as soon as the proper officers see those items. Ditto airplanes as in BOMBERS.

Is there a chance the US declares War only on Germany, limiting combat to just US vs German fronts?

TR was smart. He knew where the heart of the CP was. And, unless the other Central Powers wanted a piece of the US, why go looking for a fight that dissipates the US effort? One front at a time is just as true in WWI as it would be in WWII. More on German New Guinea in a moment.

I imagine the Japanese would be spurred into action by an American DoW, bit I can see the rationale behind that. What would the Americans be able to use “to hand” in the Pacific? I take it German New Guinea would be the target? They’d have to move quickly to beat the Japanese to the punch.

Whatever army is based in the Philippine Islands and the East Asia squadron plus the ancestor of Fleet Marine Force and the antecedent to PACFLT, the west coast squadron. The thing is, Teddy is sneaky. Remember how Spain found out she was at war with the US? Declaration of War 25 April and Dewey shows up 1 May and shoots Manila Bay up. The Japanese will have to move incredibly fast, cause Teddy had the Dewey expedition set up for at least 3 months in advance of the declaration of war. The Spaniards knew something was fishy with all the US traffic in the South China Sea and Dewey getting more ships and ammunition supplies, etc., but surprise was still accomplished.

Now imagine Teddy's targets and where his forces are. Between Japan and the German possessions, (Philippine Islands) with battle hardened veterans of the Filipino American war in the American island garrisons.

The Americans nutcracker from Hawaii, Guam, Wake and the Philippine Islands. About 25,000 troops and 2 surface action groups. First target, the Mariana Islands, then the Carolines, and the Marshalls. Finally German New Guinea and the northwestern Solomons. Chief targets are Rabaul and Chu'uk as fleet anchorages. Hatachahcha. Japan is screwed. So is Germany, but I digress. Makes for an interesting future WWII. Imagine PACFLT Chu'ukked instead of Pearl Harbored? (There is an obscene pun in there somewhere.).

I hadn’t considered aid to Russia.

Whatever hurts Imperial Germany aids America's goals.

Not thrilled due to the failure, or the objectives?

See previous remarks about TR's Cuba experience, and the Filipino American War was absolutely HORRIBLE. TR regretted both, for what it cost the combatants involved. Remember, it was TR who had to explain about 4,000 American citizen soldiers killed in the Philippine Islands, for it was his administration that fought that war, as well as answer criticism about some of the atrocities the Americans committed to break the Filipino national war of liberation. It is a dark dark dark part of American history that is not taught too well. Just how horrible? PM me.

So no chance of the rumoured American Middle East Mandate coming off under Teddy? An American protectorate over Jerusalem wouldn’t appeal?

I would hope not. Teddy might be an adventurer and a romantic, but he was not a goddamned fool like Woodrow Wilson. Morocco was a near misstep he made and one hopes he learned from that mistake.

 

[McPherson]

Shouldn't be too difficult with US forces in the Philippines at the time. The rule question is would this have any affect on Filipino freedom efforts?

The Filipinos had concluded by 1906 that armed resistance was in the main futile without foreign assistance. After sour experiences with Kaiser Bill and his nutty agents, the Illustrados briefly considered Japan, but the Filipino political class recoiled from that notion after meeting some of the Mikado's boys. The fighting actually petered out under Taft and the Filipino political leadership decided to go 100% political and lobby the USG for independence. That actually worked as by the time the rat bastard, Wilson, came along, they found the right pseudo-intellectual liar, conniver, and racist bigot, who wanted no part of the Filipino people in "his" America.

One enemy at a time, folks. Keep it focused on Kaiser Bill.

Even if they did it wouldn't last long because Austria would declare war against the Americans in support of Germany.

This is problematic. How does the US fight Austria-Hungary? How does Austria-Hungary fight the US? Seize each other's in country assets? Get American troops cooped up with the French and British in Salonika? (Is that not Turkey and Bulgaria anyway? How does that advance American goals?) A declaration of war, does not mean US troops show up at Caporetto.

Aid to Russia?

Would such prevent the October Revolution?

It did not RTL. I do not know if earlier aid would save Nicky the Nut or Brusilov.

@McPherson and concluded that a possible solution to this could be to have invalidated French and English officers and sergeants implementing a von Steuben method style of training with American officers and sergeants.

It is the only practical solution given the training problem. Going from this

Year​

Total​

U.S.A. (B)​

U.S.N.​

U.S.M.C​

U.S.A.F. (B) (C)​

1914​

165,919​

98,544​

56,989​

10,386​

to

1917​

643,833​

421,467​

194,617​

27,749​

Using 1917 figures for hypothetical 1916 would be "problematic" as to training. Then

1918​

2,897,167​

2,395,742​

448,606​

52,819​

Using 1918 figures for 1917?

 

[nick_crenshaw82]

Makes for an interesting future WWII. Imagine PACFLT Chu'ukked instead of Pearl Harbored? (There is an obscene pun in there somewhere.).

Kinda depends on how WWI ends, especially for Germany and the direction of Hitler's life ITTL.

 

[McPherson]

Kinda depends on how WWI ends, especially for Germany and the direction of Hitler's life ITTL.

It might. Hitler might not make it and Weimar Germany's future might be more stable, but the Pacific problem is kind on its own track. The Japanese American collision over China is kind of a separate compartmentalized issue. I can see some "weird" PoDs coming out of an America with the Mandates. Also, if America winds up in New Guinea and northern Solomon Islands, that makes for some interesting political interactions with the British, Dutch and Australians in the region.

 

[nick_crenshaw82]

It might. Hitler might not make it and Weimar Germany's future might be more stable, but the Pacific problem is kind on its own track. The Japanese American collision over China is kind of a separate compartmentalized issue. I can see some "weird" PoDs coming out of an America with the Mandates. Also, if America winds up in New Guinea and northern Solomon Islands, that makes for some interesting political interactions with the British, Dutch and Australians in the region.

If Japan and America did go to war over, unlikely as that is, I can't see it leading to a world war but than I'm not very good with history of this sort.

 

[McPherson]

If Japan and America did go to war over, unlikely as that is, I can't see it leading to a world war but than I'm not very good with history of this sort.

I think that if the ATL WWI ends sooner with a more sensible balanced peace, the chances for a Pacific War drop precipitously.

Gentlemen's Agreement of 1907 ​

which was an attempt to "solve" the American bigotry against Japanese people problem. It failed mainly because of Yellow Peril journalism and local politicians exploiting the generated bigotry among the American polity.

and

Teddy Roosevelt's Secret Deal with Japan: An Interview ...​

This is pure speculation... but the Teddy Roosevelt Administration and the Japanese crown government of the time, did state their positions on China and what they regarded as their spheres of economic influence in East Asia and the western Pacific Ocean. Still take some of the interview cited as something like a "History Channel" ancient aliens extrapolation of these discussions.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

What a lot of complex questions.

I’m just trying to tap some knowledge.

I have to tell you, that I think Teddy's army would still have problems with outdated tactics and operational art. I would like to think that whoever Teddy chooses as ground forces commander would be wise enough to "train up" with the French. Teddy, himself, would be far more cognizant of the need to train up and get the AEF up to speed, than Pershing was, having personally participated as a field grade with the First Volunteer Calvary in the land campaign shambles that was the 7th Corps operation at Santiago de Cuba. Kettle Hill was a disaster and TR was a part of that fighting. Helped to retrieve it. Roosevelt knew that storming a trench line was not as Pershing "imagined".

Who would you imagine TR would pick for his CinC AEF? I take it the President could chose, rather than the Army Chiefs?

John Henry Parker​

Expect Mister Roosevelt's army to go machine gun shopping and to be keenly interested in tanks and mobile artillery as soon as the proper officers see those items. Ditto airplanes as in BOMBERS.

Hmm Mr Parker seems like the kind of man that might get a light machine gun into service a lot quicker than OTL. Major Parker (assuming OTL dates of rank until the ATL WWI) could be bumped up in rank for service?

TR was smart. He knew where the heart of the CP was. And, unless the other Central Powers wanted a piece of the US, why go looking for a fight that dissipates the US effort? One front at a time is just as true in WWI as it would be in WWII.

Seems reasonable. Especially if the AEF is going to have problems with tactics and deployment.

Whatever army is based in the Philippine Islands and the East Asia squadron plus the ancestor of Fleet Marine Force and the antecedent to PACFLT, the west coast squadron. The thing is, Teddy is sneaky. Remember how Spain found out she was at war with the US? Declaration of War 25 April and Dewey shows up 1 May and shoots Manila Bay up. The Japanese will have to move incredibly fast, cause Teddy had the Dewey expedition set up for at least 3 months in advance of the declaration of war. The Spaniards knew something was fishy with all the US traffic in the South China Sea and Dewey getting more ships and ammunition supplies, etc., but surprise was still accomplished.

Problem here is, the Japanese moved on the German pacific colonies in August 1914. Surely that’s too early for a TR USA to get into the War isn’t it? I assume, given Japan is an Entente Power, the Americans are going to have to suck it up and accept the Japanese have beaten them to the punch?

Whatever hurts Imperial Germany aids America's goals.

True. At least Imperial Russia is the legitimate government and there is US-Russia trade to protect as well I imagine?

I would hope not. Teddy might be an adventurer and a romantic, but he was not a goddamned fool like Woodrow Wilson. Morocco was a near misstep he made and one hopes he learned from that mistake.

So no “evangelical lobby” pushing for Doughboys in the Holy Land to ensure security of the Holy Places? Or would it rather be a case of Roosevelt being unmoved by domestic pressure groups?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Why?

I was asking whether the Americans under Roosevelt would take on a Mandate in the Middle East. I’ve read that in the earlier versions of Sykes-Picot and the like, the area that today is Israel/Palestine was firstly an “International Zone” then offered to America, only to be taken by the British when no other options presented itself. Obviously Wilson was disdainful of such things, but I was wondering if Teddy would join “the Club” and take on a Mandate as a mark of America’s influence as a Great Power.

Got to remember, virtually no-one foresaw Palestine growing into the trouble spot it is today.

 

[ArtosStark]

I was asking whether the Americans under Roosevelt would take on a Mandate in the Middle East. I’ve read that in the earlier versions of Sykes-Picot and the like, the area that today is Israel/Palestine was firstly an “International Zone” then offered to America, only to be taken by the British when no other options presented itself. Obviously Wilson was disdainful of such things, but I was wondering if Teddy would join “the Club” and take on a Mandate as a mark of America’s influence as a Great Power.

Got to remember, virtually no-one foresaw Palestine growing into the trouble spot it is today.

Well, there was definitely some unease with the decision in the British Cabinet of the time.

Would not the mandate system look fairly different without Wilson? I was under the impression it was to a fair extent championed by him. Though I would expect some version of it would exist for the Middle eastern areas regardless, so maybe that’s a moot point.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Well, there was definitely some unease with the decision in the British Cabinet of the time.

Too right. I think they would have preferred by far for someone else to have the Mandate for the Palestine area, just not the French.

Would not the mandate system look fairly different without Wilson? I was under the impression it was to a fair extent championed by him. Though I would expect some version of it would exist for the Middle eastern areas regardless, so maybe that’s a moot point.

That’s a fair point. Maybe they’d just be Colonies transferred from one Power to another? Although Lloyd George’s Caxton House speech made it seem like the British were thinking of something other than straight up taking colonies from the defeated powers. Although given LG’s way with words it may have been window dressing to disguise simple land grabs post-War.

 

[ArtosStark]

My guess would be that the Class B and C mandates (Africa and the Pacific) could just become colonies and no one would notice the difference from OTL. The Class A mandates in the Middle East would be a problem. Britain wants the resources from them as they are seen as the only positive asset they would gain out of the war. But especially by wars end they are not too keen on having to rule them. France has interest in the area, the same as Britain and neither can afford to allow the other (or Russia if they are still in play) to dominate the region. The mandates could still come up as a way to balance the competing interests. In which case the US might still be asked to participate. What they do with that invitation, I don’t know. I doubt they would be eager to take it.

 

[nick_crenshaw82]

I was asking whether the Americans under Roosevelt would take on a Mandate in the Middle East. I’ve read that in the earlier versions of Sykes-Picot and the like, the area that today is Israel/Palestine was firstly an “International Zone” then offered to America, only to be taken by the British when no other options presented itself. Obviously Wilson was disdainful of such things, but I was wondering if Teddy would join “the Club” and take on a Mandate as a mark of America’s influence as a Great Power

So long as you're not asking on religious grounds.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

So long as you're not asking on religious grounds.

What do you mean?