Teddy Roosevelt and his Bull Moose / Progressive Party win in 1912. Impact on other parties?

As the tin says, what is the impact on both the Republican and Democratic Parties if Teddy Roosevelt wins a third term with his Bull Moose / Progressive Party?
 
It's ASB, but if by some freak it did manage to happen he would face intense hostility from both Democrats (as he's a rival for the allegiance of progressive elements) and regular Republicans, who between them would wield veto-proof majorities in both houses. He'd be a President without a party (or at best only a very trivial party) rather like John Tyler or Andrew Johnson. He could expect a very frustrating presidency.
 
It's ASB, but if by some freak it did manage to happen he would face intense hostility from both Democrats (as he's a rival for the allegiance of progressive elements) and regular Republicans, who between them would wield veto-proof majorities in both houses. He'd be a President without a party (or at best only a very trivial party) rather like John Tyler or Andrew Johnson. He could expect a very frustrating presidency.

So you don’t think we’d see the Progressive Democrats flock to the Progressive Party over time?
 
With how popular Teddy was and the moderate strength of Progressives, could he use the obstinance of the established parties to bolster his progressive base? The GOP was split when it came to 1912 (some plausible allies) and with WWI and issues in Mexico, the government is going to need to come to terms with Theodore or be seen as putting America at risk.
 
So you don’t think we’d see the Progressive Democrats flock to the Progressive Party over time?

Why should they when they have a perfectly good party of their own?

And they are very tenacious in their party loyalty. Even in 1904, when they found themselves saddled with a conservative nominee, they were content to abstain rather than vote for TR, whose popular vote, allowing for the increase in population, hardly differed from McKinley's in 1900. The only way he can conceivably win is by getting the vast majority of the Republican vote, reducing Taft to maybe half his OTL support, and getting a Democratic opponent so obnoxious to faithful Bryanists that they abstain in droves. And even that will be a temporary situation, since the latter will flock back to their party as soon as it finds a more populist leader.
 

SsgtC

Banned
In my own timeline where TR wins the 1912 election, he does so as a Republican. And even that required a substantial amount of backroom wheeling and dealing. Before beginning it, I explored having him win as a third party, and it's just not possible without massive and contrived changes
 
With how popular Teddy was and the moderate strength of Progressives, could he use the obstinance of the established parties to bolster his progressive base? The GOP was split when it came to 1912 (some plausible allies) and with WWI and issues in Mexico, the government is going to need to come to terms with Theodore or be seen as putting America at risk.

If his attitude to WW1 and Mexico is anything like OTL, his opponents won't have the slightest difficulty in portraying him as a warmongering lunatic.

As for being "popular" he was popular only with a section of the Republican Party. As I observed earlier, his popular vote in 1904 (adjusting for population growth) wasn't hugely different from McKinley's four years earlier. He had no more appeal to Democrats than had any other Republican, which was how Bryan's old followers saw him regardless of what label he might use.
 
Why should they when they have a perfectly good party of their own?

And they are very tenacious in their party loyalty. Even in 1904, when they found themselves saddled with a conservative nominee, they were content to abstain rather than vote for TR, whose popular vote, allowing for the increase in population, hardly differed from McKinley's in 1900. The only way he can conceivably win is by getting the vast majority of the Republican vote, reducing Taft to maybe half his OTL support, and getting a Democratic opponent so obnoxious to faithful Bryanists that they abstain in droves. And even that will be a temporary situation, since the latter will flock back to their party as soon as it finds a more populist leader.

Well maybe WJB and WW never come to the agreement they did in OTL. Since WW had previously been a Bourbon Democrat, maybe we do see the abstention by Byranists which allows TR to win as the "one true progressive" candidate.
 
Well maybe WJB and WW never come to the agreement they did in OTL. Since WW had previously been a Bourbon Democrat, maybe we do see the abstention by Byranists which allows TR to win as the "one true progressive" candidate.

But Bryan is a Democrat to the marrow and will campaign for the nominee whatever his private feelings. And even if Bryan's people aren't wild about Woodrow, they can't dislike him any more than they did Parker, so he'll get at least the 37.6% that Parker got So his vote only falls by about five percentage points, which unless the Taft vote totally collapses, will be nowhere near enough to stop him winning.

Also, of course, if TR seems to be coming even close, quite a few Taft supporters may switch to Wilson in order to defeat the "traitor".
 
So you don’t think we’d see the Progressive Democrats flock to the Progressive Party over time?

How well did that ever work for third parties? Inevitably, if the Progressives make too strong of a showing said Progressive democrats will gain control of the party, co-opt the Bull Moose platfotm, and use their superior organization to pull the BM voters to them instead
 
How well did that ever work for third parties? Inevitably, if the Progressives make too strong of a showing said Progressive democrats will gain control of the party, co-opt the Bull Moose platfotm, and use their superior organization to pull the BM voters to them instead

So OTL?
 

SsgtC

Banned
I mean progressive republicans became democrats over time
Gotcha. Yeah, most did. Though I could probably classify myself as a Progressive Republican. Or alternatively a Conservative Democrat. Ahhhhhh, the joys of being an independent centrist. Lol
 

That or the Republicans realign to Roosevelt's Contract with the Common Man and get his followers back into the fold once he bows out of politics. The Progressive agenda simply isent far enough away from the broad social consensus between the major parties to be immune to co-option long enough to establish its own distinct party identity, loyalty, networks, internal structures ect. to become a long lasting organization
 
It's ASB, but if by some freak it did manage to happen

Hey, all that is necessary is that a few days before the election, Woodrow Wilson is discovered with the proverbial dead girl or live boy... :p

More seriously, I did once think that if Clark were nominated and Bryan was so embittered by his nomination that he would urge progressive Democrats to vote for TR, the latter might have a chance. But Bryan was just too much of a party loyalist for that. In 1924, he not only endorsed Davis but lent the Davis ticket his brother Charles as vice-presidential nominee, even though La Follette was obviously much closer to Bryan's political principles than Davis was. As Richard Hofstadter wrote, "The Commoner could no more think of leaving the Democratic Party than of being converted to Buddhism." https://books.google.com/books?id=fVnnj0RmdhoC&pg=PA262
 
During the Progressive Era in the early 1900s wasn’t there a goodly number of liberal Republicans as well as conservative Democrats?
 
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