Ted Kennedy wins the presidency in 1980: What would it be like?

James G

Gone Fishin'
Ted Kennedy beats sitting POTUS Carter for the Democratic nomination and goes on to win the White House over Reagan. Yeah, I know, a challenge and a half. But, the gods shine on him and he does it.
What is his presidency like?

Nuclear freeze. With Reagan as POTUS in OTL, Kennedy pushed for a nuclear freeze and blamed Reagan's nuclear build-up (which actually started under Carter) for increased tensions. If he was president, would he carry on with Carter's build-up like Reagan or have a freeze like he proposed in the mid-80s but earlier?

Universal medical insurance. Would Kennedy have gotten that through Congress? The make-up of Congress would be different without Republicans winning on Reagan's coattails. Would it have bankrupted the country? How hard would lobbyists for medical companies fight?

Sex scandals to rival Clinton's? He and his wife were separated from '77 but staged events together and kept that private. They divorced in '81 but I can only presume she would still be First Lady. Would Ted follow his brother's example and spend his presidency with his flies undone? And be caught out, resulting in a scandal that tumbles onwards through twists and turns leading to impeachment?

Ulster. How would Britain deal with such a man whose views on Ulster had to be listened to because he was POTUS and not just an annoying senator? Would Britain have to do as he wished?

I've made plenty of assumptions on these already. What do you think?
 
If you want Ted as president in '80, I think it has to be in a timeline where Ford wins in '76. No sitting Dem president to upend, and voter fatigue after twelve years of Republicans would take some of the wind out of Reagan's sales.

That being said, I can definitely see him getting caught with his pants down next to some lobbyist or intern or something. I can't see him getting impeached over it, given that the exact set of circumstances that almost caused Clinton to get impeached IOTL (i.e. lying under oath to try and cover it up) wouldn't necessarily happen. What could be interesting is the national conversation that happens if Ms. Kennedy comes forward and says she doesn't mind since she and Ted are separated anyway. Is America ready for a non-nuclear First Family? How would it handle a sitting president getting divorced? (Pierre Trudeau up in Canada already had one a few years back.)

Assuming Thatcher is still in office in the UK, the situation ITTL would probably be a reversal of the warm friendship that she and Reagan shared. She wouldn't allow Kennedy to move her an inch on Ulster, and as a result the US UK special relationship would likely be pulled back a few notches.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
The idea of a divorce from a sitting president seems outlandish at first glance but maybe not, especially if announced at the beginning of a second term.
Thatcher and Reagan weren't that close in at first - Falklands, Grenada. I can agree that Thatcher wouldn't back down and that really would hurt the special relationship.

Any other thoughts? Nuclear policy? Healthcare? Domestic agenda?
 
I think you have to remove the Chappaquiddick incident in order for this to happen. Ted Kennedy refused to run in 1972 and 1976 because of this.

Healthcare

Ted Kennedy was an ardent supporter of Universal Healthcare, so in a scenario where he was as popular as Reagan and the fact that unlike Reagan, Kennedy won't have to deal with a congress of a separate party (Democrats controlled the House from 1954 to 1994) UHC might be a reality by 1989.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I think you have to remove the Chappaquiddick incident in order for this to happen. Ted Kennedy refused to run in 1972 and 1976 because of this.



Ted Kennedy was an ardent supporter of Universal Healthcare, so in a scenario where he was as popular as Reagan and the fact that unlike Reagan, Kennedy won't have to deal with a congress of a separate party (Democrats controlled the House from 1954 to 1994) UHC might be a reality by 1989.

Oh, no, my thinking went as OTL. He didn't run in '72 and '76 but by '80 thought that Chappaquiddick was long behind him. He ran against Carter because Carter and the Liberal wing of the party had been at odds throughout Carter's presidency.
I was thinking that UHC could be passed - this isn't my specialist subject - with a friendly Congress but then again there would always be interference from outside. My thinking comes from how I understand the situation now (current politics) and so I am unsure how it would have gone in the 80s.
 
One-termer due to scandals[1], but at least we get UHC and a basic income[2]. Probably followed by HW Bush in '84.

[1] divorce thing someone mentioned upthread, 10-20% chance of some weinstein-type incident if not worse, general kennedy deviancy.
[2] 58% supported some sort of guaranteed minimum income in the late 70s OTL. Without Reagan's shifting the conversation, combined with 4 more years of Ford to hurt the GOP brand and by extension conservatism, yeah it happens.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
One-termer due to scandals[1], but at least we get UHC and a basic income[2]. Probably followed by HW Bush in '84.

[1] divorce thing someone mentioned upthread, 10-20% chance of some weinstein-type incident if not worse, general kennedy deviancy.
[2] 58% supported some sort of guaranteed minimum income in the late 70s OTL. Without Reagan's shifting the conversation, combined with 4 more years of Ford to hurt the GOP brand and by extension conservatism, yeah it happens.

That's what my thinking was. A disaster waiting to happen.
 
That's what my thinking was. A disaster waiting to happen.
UHC, a basic income and FINALLY destroying America's Kennedy fanboyism/Camelot are all GREAT. Besides a US economy that's more competitive, you likely tone down the culture wars a bit at least while boomers are politically dominant -- JFK's assasination is often cited as a point where America Went Wrong, so reduce the infatuation with that family and I strongly suspect quite a bit of the fighting over the 60s is toned down.

Ted Kennedy was willing to prevent some form of healthcare from passing under Nixon bc of watergate/1976 so it's obvious he wouldn't have been a good president. Then again going by his brother's nearly starting WW3 plus RFK's disturbing "law and order" tendencies it's clear that "good president" and being a Kennedy are mutually exclusive things.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
That's quite a strong response!
Everything that I have read about Ted Kennedy tells me that he was marmite: either adored or despised.
 
Just because I recognize that he'd have a good shot at getting UHC through if elected in 1980 somehow, or more realistic given chappaquidick being a senator helping a sitting dem get it doesn't mean I don't despite him.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Just because I recognize that he'd have a good shot at getting UHC through if elected in 1980 somehow, or more realistic given chappaquidick being a senator helping a sitting dem get it doesn't mean I don't despite him.
I didn't mean to have it interpreted that way. My mistake in phrasing in what I was saying. My bad. I apologise.
 
No problem.

Anyways, one kind of ATL I've never seen on here is "What if no chappaquidick incident?: how does Ted Kennedy's career" go. I've seen tons of he wins in '76 or '80 using that as the POD but I wonder what kind of divergences you'd see without going THAT far.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
In my current TL - its a war story - I have Ted as president starting in March 81.
The POD is Ford winning in 76, Kennedy running in '80 (Chappaquiddick affects the campaign) and losing to Jerry Brown but then taking the vice presidential slot. Brown then gets killed by Hinckley two months into office.
I started this thread because I wanted to see ideas as to what a Kennedy presidency would be like away from my own preconceptions. I've written several years of his presidency already. As said, that is a war story - a Red Dawn story in fact - but a lot of it concerns Kennedy's presidency.
 
Easy to see a Kennedy that followed Carter going "Well I'm going to take Carter's rhetoric about human rights and put it into action" leading to ations that piss off the USSR's top brass enough for a red dawn type scenario.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Easy to see a Kennedy that followed Carter going "Well I'm going to take Carter's rhetoric about human rights and put it into action" leading to ations that piss off the USSR's top brass enough for a red dawn type scenario.

A bit more complicated than that, but that is the gist of it.
 
If we are going to talk about foreign policy, it is worth noting that in 1971 after visiting Bangladeshi refugee camps Ted Kennedy called for all aid to Pakistan to be cut off. I can't imagine US-Pakistan relations being as cordial under President Kennedy as they were IOTL with President Reagan. Whether or not Kennedy funds the Mujahideen I don't know, but I doubt Kennedy would try to buddy up with Zia.
 
Well obamacare is partly based off what was originally a Nixon idea floated. I think Ted would get at least something similar. Not sure he could get single payer passed
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I was thinking that Kennedy would cut off aid to human rights abusers.
As to healthcare insurance, I'd imagine something would get done even if it wasn't everything desired.
 
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