[Technology Query] - Earliest possible adoption of electric cars?

Obvious intent for the question, I guess. Were there any specific manufacturers in America or elsewhere that were working on the issue and could have been pioneers?
 

Ian_W

Banned
1914 or so.

Edison was a big fan, as was his friend Mr Ford.

"Within a year, I hope, we shall begin the manufacture of an electric automobile. I don't like to talk about things which are a year ahead, but I am willing to tell you something of my plans.

The fact is that Mr. Edison and I have been working for some years on an electric automobile which would be cheap and practicable. Cars have been built for experimental purposes, and we are satisfied now that the way is clear to success. The problem so far has been to build a storage battery of light weight which would operate for long distances without recharging. Mr. Edison has been experimenting with such a battery for some time."


https://www.wired.com/2010/06/henry-ford-thomas-edison-ev/
 
Obvious intent for the question, I guess. Were there any specific manufacturers in America or elsewhere that were working on the issue and could have been pioneers?
The main manufacturer of electric trucks in the 1900's was General Vehicle electric (G.V. electric). They produced 750 lbs, 1,000 lbs, 2,000 lbs, 2 ton, 3.5 ton, and 5 ton trucks, and were popular during the early 1900s for intra-city routes that didn't require gasoline car ranges. The 5-ton truck was rated at 35 miles (56 km) per charge.

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Eventually the gasoline truck was standardized upon, but these trucks still could have been viable in their role longer- using gasoline trucks for long range and electrics for short range deliveries. Thus, about 1900-1910 would be the earliest major adoption of electric vehicles.

Electric cars for personal ownership, which need to fill the occasional long range route in addition to the standard short range use, would take longer. These would have to wait either for better batteries, or for some overhead wire system on long range highways to be developed for unlimited range. I don't think batteries would be ready anytime soon, it would be about 1990 with lithium ion batteries, so the earliest possible use general purpose electric cars would be whenever overhead wire networks could be developed (OTL 1918 for efficient and cheap systems).
 
Right. There was a brief period at the beginning when electric vehicles were competitive. It's possible to briefly extend that period - but only briefly, as lead-acid batteries simply can't compete with combustion engines.

As for more modern times, Li-ion batteries weren't even invented until 1980, and took some significant development to become safe.

Since Li is such an obvious choice (light weight, good electrochemical potential) that I assume others must have tried it earlier, and failed.
 
Seems like the issues between Ford and Edison were caused by Edison wanting the Ford cars to only use his batteries, which turned out to be inferior to generic Lead-acid batteries for cars.

I think you could make EV's rule over gas, but only if several factors come together at the right time to build up the infrastructure and embed them before gas takes off.
  • Delay the development of the oil industry so gas isn't as readily available comparable to barriers. Maybe bump off a few key chemists, and speed up electromagnetic research.
  • Faster electrification and a high population density of mid-sized towns/cities. Short range commutes are maybe 20-30 miles, daily commute for most people is only a few. Long range transit is done by train. Say Western Europe or the East Coast of the US.
  • A Ford-analogue develops with EV's instead of gasoline cars. Critically, he does not try to monopolize the battery market but makes the vehicle use generic lead-acid batteries that can be manufactured by anyone and swapped easily.
  • During the period before starters are invented, the electric car edges out gasoline and steam cars due to its lower cost and ability to be started without cranking. Swapping stations carry batteries that are maintained at charge, and swapped out.
  • Gasoline cars eventually develop, but are crowded out of the market by the already established electric cars. Rail transport still dominates long range travel, and EV's are easier for short range travel. The internal combustion engine is mostly used for airplanes.
Basically if everything goes right for the EV industry it could usurp gasoline cars, but it'd take a substantially different world. Perhaps if China or India industrialized first and got an early start on electromagnetic theory their geography and population distribution would be right for the EV to become dominant. Out in the US the longer ranges make gasoline even more attractive.
 
As for more modern times, Li-ion batteries weren't even invented until 1980, and took some significant development to become safe.

Since Li is such an obvious choice (light weight, good electrochemical potential) that I assume others must have tried it earlier, and failed.

The issue was just that, safety. Early lithium-base batteries had a habit of exploding violently if they got wet, and would produce highly toxic fluorine gas if punctured. Contrary to popular narrative it wasn't oil companies that "killed the electric car", it was the insurance companies (along with the manufacturers and operators) who didn't want to deal with the potential liability issues.

To answer the OP's question the earliest you'd likely to see EVs develop is likely the mid-80s - early 90s as that's when reusable high-amperage deep discharge batteries that weighed less than several tons started to make the transition from "one-off prototypes" and "very expensive toys" to something that could be reliably mass produced.
 
To answer the OP's question the earliest you'd likely to see EVs develop is likely the mid-80s - early 90s as that's when reusable high-amperage deep discharge batteries that weighed less than several tons started to make the transition from "one-off prototypes" and "very expensive toys" to something that could be reliably mass produced.
Not quite; historically, the vehicles used by milkmen for daily residential milk deliveries, milk floats, generally moved from horse to electric power, since they generally only traveled a short distance (milk being milk), so range wasn't a serious concern, and as they usually operated on residential streets early in the morning noise was. Not the largest niche, but much bigger than "one-off prototypes" or "very expensive toys".

It also offers an interesting alternative to improving batteries: noise ordnances. Perhaps early in the development of motorized vehicles a number of large cities--New York, Chicago, maybe others--pass ordnances restricting night-time noise levels, such that vehicles operating then effectively have to be electrically-powered to meet the noise requirements (in much the same vein that cities at the time would pass smoke and soot ordnances that had the functional effect of requiring electric locomotives). You would see something of a tension between the option of taking deliveries during the day so you could use other forms of propulsion and sticking with night-time deliveries but having to go electric, but it's not impossible that the latter point would tend to win out, resulting in the production of a range of small electric delivery vehicles for city use--hence, again, no real range issues even with lead-acid batteries. They might be quite a common sight in some of these cities for a time--or, well, not really a common sight, but something used in fair numbers.

Probably this would only be temporary, because there would surely be intense pressure to repeal the ordnance or some other way allow gasoline vehicles onto the streets, especially as they became more dominant elsewhere, but it would probably take some time for them to completely disappear, just the same way that the electric milk float vanished only gradually. Perhaps the old electric delivery trucks whispering along the streets at night would become a nostalgic marker in certain sorts of writing or film in the 1950s or 1960s (by which time I guesstimate that they would mostly have died out), or something for period pieces...
 
Not quite; historically, the vehicles used by milkmen for daily residential milk deliveries, milk floats, generally moved from horse to electric power, since they generally only traveled a short distance (milk being milk), so range wasn't a serious concern, and as they usually operated on residential streets early in the morning noise was. Not the largest niche, but much bigger than "one-off prototypes" or "very expensive toys".

Right, but those floats used lead acid batteries that severely limited them in terms of both range and speed. Building an electric car or truck that can compete with gas-powered vehicles requires far more exotic and/or volatile battery compositions which is where the "one-off prototypes" and "very expensive toys" come in. Golf carts and similar light vehicles are one thing and have been around since the 30s. Battery-powered cars and trucks that can match the performance of their gas-powered counterparts are another thing entirely and have only become practical in the last few decades.
 
Right, but those floats used lead acid batteries that severely limited them in terms of both range and speed. Building an electric car or truck that can compete with gas-powered vehicles requires far more exotic and/or volatile battery compositions which is where the "one-off prototypes" and "very expensive toys" come in.
You're missing my point, which is that in many applications the kind of "performance" you're talking about simply isn't relevant because no one in their right mind would need a vehicle with great range or speed. Other factors, like noise, then become the "performance" factors of interest, and as a result you can have potentially quite extensive production and use of vehicles that fail on typical "performance" measures because those simply aren't relevant whereas other factors are. Another example in a totally different field would be how radiation-hardened computer hardware is often much worse in typical "performance" measures than standard commercial hardware for a variety of reasons; but in space applications or other fields where heavy radiation exposure is expected, the regular hardware would rapidly malfunction and so be useless.

Obviously EVs are unlikely for general use until rather recently, save in the case perhaps of a system that has especially strong incentives to use them. A country like the Soviet Union or Maoist China that feels itself under siege and has a large and important modern military but very little oil, for example, might very well ration all available gasoline to the point where most vehicles are electric simply because you cannot practically get fuel for a gasoline car. Some of the Syndicalist countries in the Kaiserreich setting might be like this to some extent or another. But accepting that this is unlikely, there is still a vast gulf between being in general use and being one-off prototypes and very expensive toys which can perfectly well be filled and see extensive usage of electric vehicles in certain roles without them being the primary type of vehicle in service. So I disagree entirely that EVs are stuck in the latter position until the 1990s, and feel that there is considerable scope to increase their usage without trying to force every car to be an electric car before the technology is ready.
 
Right. There was a brief period at the beginning when electric vehicles were competitive. It's possible to briefly extend that period - but only briefly, as lead-acid batteries simply can't compete with combustion engines.

As for more modern times, Li-ion batteries weren't even invented until 1980, and took some significant development to become safe.

Since Li is such an obvious choice (light weight, good electrochemical potential) that I assume others must have tried it earlier, and failed.
That's not the case, electric trucks remained competitive continuously with combustion engine trucks within their range- they were used for short routes and the combustion trucks were used for long routes, and the use of this system could have been extended right up to the present. It wouldn't be very common, as personal vehicles and long-distance trucks would have to be internal combustion, but it would work. Anything beyond that would require either lithium-ion batteries (1990) or overhead wires (1920's), making the 1920's the earliest time they could move into general use.
 

Ian_W

Banned
Right, but those floats used lead acid batteries that severely limited them in terms of both range and speed. Building an electric car or truck that can compete with gas-powered vehicles requires far more exotic and/or volatile battery compositions which is where the "one-off prototypes" and "very expensive toys" come in. Golf carts and similar light vehicles are one thing and have been around since the 30s. Battery-powered cars and trucks that can match the performance of their gas-powered counterparts are another thing entirely and have only become practical in the last few decades.

The main competition for a circa-1900 electric car isn't a hand-cranked diesel/petrol car, it's a horse and cart.

I think you need three things - more broken arms from hand-cranking, a slower development of the electric starters for petrol engines, and being able to hot-swap the battery pack.

Add that to Henry Ford applying mass-production to the electric car, and I think the petrol car becomes a niche vehicle for long range travel ... and that means breakdowns on bad roads.
 

SwampTiger

Banned
What if Edison developed the Ni-Cad or Ni-Zn batteries in the US, or learned of Waldemar Jungner's developments? Thus, for doubled initial costs, you have a decent battery range for automotive/truck use, as well as longer life. Add this to urban restrictions on smoke and noise so that a class of urban vehicles arises before 1920. Ford develops a Model E in 1912.
 
You're missing my point, which is that in many applications the kind of "performance" you're talking about simply isn't relevant because no one in their right mind would need a vehicle with great range or speed.

The main competition for a circa-1900 electric car isn't a hand-cranked diesel/petrol car, it's a horse and cart.

The way I see it these responses both illustrate the fundamental problem. If EVs main competition/equivalent is the horse and cart one would expect them to go the way of the horse and cart OTL as gas-powered vehicles become more capable and economical. As Dathi THorfinnsson said above...

Right. There was a brief period at the beginning when electric vehicles were competitive. It's possible to briefly extend that period - but only briefly, as lead-acid batteries simply can't compete with combustion engines.
 
Perhaps early in the development of motorized vehicles a number of large cities--New York, Chicago, maybe others--pass ordnances restricting night-time noise levels, such that vehicles operating then effectively have to be electrically-powered to meet the noise requirements (in much the same vein that cities at the time would pass smoke and soot ordnances that had the functional effect of requiring electric locomotives).

And then those guys get voted out of office, and those restrictions get binned, just like the flag and signal rocket laws
are repealed, or just forgotten, like this

Any motorist driving along a country road at night must stop every mile and send up a rocket signal, wait 10 minutes for the road to be cleared of livestock, and continue.

Any motorist who sights a team of horses coming toward him must pull well off the road, cover his car with a blanket or canvas that blends with the countryside, and let the horses pass.

In the event that a horse refuses to pass a car on the road, the owner must take his car apart and conceal the parts in the bushes.
 
And then those guys get voted out of office, and those restrictions get binned, just like the flag and signal rocket laws
are repealed, or just forgotten, like this
I guess you didn't read my whole post, because I specifically said, "surely there would be intense pressure to repeal these laws..." and explicitly expected them to be a temporary sort of thing that might dominate in the 1900s or 1910s when motorization was controversial IOTL (there was much discussion of governors to restrict pedestrian deaths, although for various reasons this didn't actually happen) but would probably be mostly dead by the 1950s or 1960s. The thing is that a law restricting night-time noise levels doesn't inconvenience the average motorist much because, well, they're mostly not driving around at night, and it directly increases the quality of life of a great many people (i.e., anyone living in the city, who has less noise to deal with at night), so it's nothing like the laws you describe, which acted to prevent mostly theoretical harms and inconvenienced many motorists.
 
I guess you didn't read my whole post, because I specifically said, "surely there would be intense pressure to repeal these laws..." and explicitly expected them to be a temporary sort of thing that might dominate in the 1900s or 1910s when motorization was controversial IOTL (there was much discussion of governors to restrict pedestrian deaths, although for various reasons this didn't actually happen) but would probably be mostly dead by the 1950s or 1960s. The thing is that a law restricting night-time noise levels doesn't inconvenience the average motorist much because, well, they're mostly not driving around at night, and it directly increases the quality of life of a great many people (i.e., anyone living in the city, who has less noise to deal with at night), so it's nothing like the laws you describe, which acted to prevent mostly theoretical harms and inconvenienced many motorists.
Those would be city laws.
Thing was, since much of the population was rural, so were many of the auto sales. They wanted to replace the Horse and Buggy
This is from 1914
State: Cars Registered

New York 168,223
Illinois 131,140
California 123,504
Ohio 122,348
Pennsylvania 110,963
Iowa 106,087
Massachusetts 77,246
Michigan 76,014
Indiana 66,500
Wisconsin 53,160
Missouri 50,998

Since rural electrification won't be a thing for decades, electric cars leave the rural people out of luck, and even in 1914, New York had a lot of Farmers upstate, and Farmers in Downstate Illinois
 
Those would be city laws.
Thing was, since much of the population was rural, so were many of the auto sales. They wanted to replace the Horse and Buggy
This is from 1914
State: Cars Registered

New York 168,223
Illinois 131,140
California 123,504
Ohio 122,348
Pennsylvania 110,963
Iowa 106,087
Massachusetts 77,246
Michigan 76,014
Indiana 66,500
Wisconsin 53,160
Missouri 50,998

Since rural electrification won't be a thing for decades, electric cars leave the rural people out of luck, and even in 1914, New York had a lot of Farmers upstate, and Farmers in Downstate Illinois
Yes, and? Are these farmers in the habit of driving around Manhattan or Downtown Chicago in the middle of the night? If not, then this doesn't affect them at all, so I fail to see the relevance. I've been quite explicit all along that my proposal is not trying to wipe out gasoline vehicles altogether, merely to carve out a significant niche where electric vehicles could see commercial success: as night-time delivery vehicles in big cities. I don't think completely replacing gasoline vehicles with electric cars is practical, but seeing wider usage of electric vehicles most certainly is, and all--all--I've been trying to demonstrate with this proposal and my other posts is that you don't need lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles to see substantial usage before the present day (well...the comments on an autarkic country with limited oil reserves posited a situation where I could see gasoline vehicles getting wiped out, but that's a rather special situation). Not that legal ordnances could wipe out gasoline cars.

In fact, I explicitly said that this would only be a night-time ordnance, and there would therefore be tension between accepting that you have to use an electric vehicle for night-time deliveries or taking deliveries during the day and not facing any restrictions, i.e. being able to use gasoline-powered trucks. That post implicitly assumed that there would be widespread usage of gasoline vehicles, just not at night in these particular cities. So there really is absolutely no reason at all for farmers or rural inhabitants to come into it or argue about it all, versus seeing it as a peculiar affection of their urban cousins.
 
I've been quite explicit all along that my proposal is not trying to wipe out gasoline vehicles altogether, merely to carve out a significant niche where electric vehicles could see commercial success:
Just saying it won't be even as large as Steam, given the lack of electrical hookups at this time.
The only real universal electrical socket was the Edison screw in, like used for lightbulbs, the two blade electrical plug was just coming into fashion and there were dozens of competing designs, few being interchangeable till after WWI

Even with laws pushing for electric, you will only be slightly more successful than Baker-- who was done by 1914

Problem is, Electric, it's expensive. 2-3x as much as a Model T original price, even without the infrastructure issues.

Here's a good overview of what was available in 1907
 
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