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I found this very long letter from one of President Dewey's European diplomats written in the early 1950's while on sabbatical doing European history research at the Silesian University of Breslau, and thought it could add much to our understanding of those dramatic events of September 1939 when many argued that the Europe was on the brink of war, instead of the so-called German Polish 2 day war.

Dear Son,

You've asked me what personal insight I have over the great diplomatic drama of September 1939, and whether it was inevitable that Hitler backed down from his threats to invade Poland, and thereby possibly igniting a larger war, or whether he had been planning his actions all along. From what I've gathered from talking to many people who played a part in all this, I will give you what knowledge I can.
For background, we must remember that Hitler's main aggressive goal for the bulk of his political life was a German led war against Soviet Russia, and an invasion of Poland, the potential destruction of the Polish army, an army that Hitler had praised as late as January of 1939 in his meeting with Polish Foreign minister Beck when he said that every Polish division stationed on its eastern border with Russia meant one less German division that he needed to devote to eastern defense, such an invasion would be counter productive to such a main goal.
Let us also remember that the French army of 1939 was no paper tiger, and if France joined in a war, German military planners were assuring Hitler that a French invasion of Germany within days was on the cards, assuming the bulk of the German army was engaged in the Polish invasion.
I believe Hitler was in fact hoping for a short quick easy war with Poland, with no outside intervention, with the final result a much smaller Poland left over (and a likely German protectorate established over it similar to the one over Czechia at the time) and Germany and its new Soviet ally to partition the rest. Then, Hitler was probably hoping for the main event, his war of aggression against Soviet Russia to take place in the spring of 1940, not realizing of course that Georg Elser had other plans for him that November.
But let us go back to late August 1939, the place Berlin, at Hitlers new Chancellory, the participants Hitler, Goring, Ribbentrop and various high level German military figures.
Unnamed military officer."Mein Fuhrer, based on the war games that we have been carrying out, it seems quite clear that any invasion of Poland, if it leads to a French and British declaration of war, will be a likely fiasco. Once it is clear that German units are pouring into Poland on a massive scale, the bulk of the French army, which is mobilizing even now, or about to, will launch an invasion of the Ruhr, an invasion in which they will enjoy a huge military advantage in terms of man power and air power as well, assuming RAF participation as well. The only way to counter this would be a much less aggressive invasion approach to Poland, and the retention of dozens of earmarked divisions back to the west, which would likely blunt any French incursion, or significantly weaken it, but also means that the Polish invasion is not successfully concluded for several months, and might drag out longer, buying more time for a completer French and British mobilization."
Ribbentrop then added some, for him, well reasoned diplomatic analysis. "Mein Fuhrer, at this point in time Germany benefits from delaying any reckless, adventurous act, that will plunge Europe into war. While in the next few years the time for a showdown with Stalin may come, by waiting we achieve many things. Consider domestic politics in the west. Further months of peace will help to solidify the Chamberlain regime, and in an election expected shortly, his tories, a strong element of which are for good relations with the Reich, are likely to do well. Indeed, there were even rumours earlier this year that Chamberlain was hoping, and still might be hoping, to purge his party of its most anti-German elements, such as Cooper and Churchill. For all of his recklessness, shown in his ridiculous guarantee to Poland, Chamberlain remains at heart a wily British businessman who would like to make trade, not war. Can the same be said of his rivals, like Churchill?
Now, consider the case of France where Daladier is moving to strengthen his regime, by delaying elections until 1942, and in the ultimate act of repudiation of the Soviet inspired Popular Front, he pushed through an election reform introducing proportional representation, so that his Radicals will no longer have to be in an election alliance with left wing parties. His foreign minister, George Bonnet, wants peace with us at almost any price, and a wise and proper course for Germany is to help him win more and more influence in the Daladier regime. We risk this beachhead of political influence with this invasion.
Let us look to our new ally Franco, in Spain. He is starting to rebuild a fractured, torn country, and a Europe at peace, with uninterrupted trade, travel and general economic peacetime intercourse, is what Spain needs to get back on its feet. If we are forced to a final showdown with Stalin, but a limited one without the complication of French and British involvement, I can imagine that Franco would send a Spanish expeditionary force of hundreds of thousands of men to join in our crusade if we ask him.
Overseas, my diplomats have been engaged in mediation efforts in Asia to end Japan's bogged down and futile war with China. An agreement could come over the next few months. A Japan freed from its war with China means a Japan more likely to be a stronger ally in any potential war with Stalin.
And let us not forget the sleeping giant of the West, the United States. We may think that with its repudiation of the league of nations, the world court, its various neutrality acts that the US will be neutral in any war starting over this invasion of Poland. It will be neutral at first, but for how long, and what kind of neutrality? Do we have any doubt that President Roosevelt is an internationalist at heart. Let us remember, mein fuhrer, his role in the Great War, as President Wilson's assistant navy minister, he was a loyal Wilsonian internationalist. Can there be any doubt where his true feelings will lie if Britain and France fight us? His second term is winding down, and right now, with Europe at peace, most observers feel that it is highly unlikely that he will try for a third term, and if he did a Republican has a good chance of winning. Who will be America's next president, taking office in early 1941? No one can say, mein fuhrer, however I believe that whoever that man is, he will be less interventionist, less pro-British than the current occupant. If however, a "war time emergency" exists, its is quite likely that Roosevelt will use that excuse to try for a third term, and due to such "war time emergency" would have a good chance of winning, even though last years elections held at a time of peace in Europe showed a tremendous repudiation of his regime, with countless FDR enthusiasts being turned out of office.
to be continued
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