TBWI: Seward doesn't listen to Frederick Douglass

This scenario may seem unlikely, as President William Seward had a reputation as a hardcore abolitionist. But what if he had ignored the advice of Frederick Douglass and not encouraged the fomentation of slave revolts in the South during the Confederate War? Let's say Kentucky doesn't join the Confederacy, or the Union wins at Manassas; whatever it takes to make Seward think that the Union can defeat the South without the help of slaves. What would the outcome of the war have been? It would have certainly lasted longer; the French and British wouldn't have reacted the way they did, McClellan's coup would have been extremely unlikely, and I can't see any other scenario in which Missouri and Maryland would have seceded. But could the Union have won the war, or was Seward doomed to make a huge screw-up at some point or another?
 
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