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Instead of surviving being shot in the arm, when his unguarded carriage was ambushed (probably by mere robbers) when returning from a visit to his mistress, the King instead receives a fatal injury and dies less than a 24 hours later.

What's is the fallout of this event? Will there be a succession crisis? Or will Maria I inherit without significant problems? Will the clampdown on the Tavoras and other nobles worsen? To what degree? How long could Prime Minister Melo hold on to his position in the new court?

How will this effect Portugal's involvement in the Seven years war? (assuming the King of Spain died a year earlier or on time. as OTL, and Charles III inherits)
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