Target Kursk: Soviet attack May 1943

Orry

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POD: Sometime in early 1943 Georgy Zhukov dies - exactly how is not important be it plane crash or falling down stairs.

Effect of POD - Without restraint from Zhukov (and others) Stalin decides to prempt the Germans and launch attacks out of or in the area of the Kursk salient. The Soviet attack is launched on or before the 4th May.

Questions.

How far do the Soviets get before the attack stalls either due to German action or supply difficulties? Can they force the Dnieper?

I suspect this would be less of a disaster for the Germans than OTL - with knock on effects. Where might the frontlines be when the first nukes are dropped on Germany in late 45 early 46?

How might this effect Political developments in Europe after the war? Does the Terhan conference go differently? Can we get a non-communist eastern Europe?
 
Zhukov wasn't alone in his recommendations, you're going to have to kill a much larger number of commanders (a purge perhaps, although that's pretty ASB in the middle of the war), and have Stalin switch off to Allied intelligence, before an offensive without prior German exhaustion seems like the best strategy.
 

Orry

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I have read in a number of books that Stalin wanted to launch a quick pre-emptive strike against the gathering German forces. But was pursuaded by Zhukov and Antonov to stay on the defensive until the German attack had been defeated.

The Argument being that in summer 1941 and 1942 when the Germans chose to attack they achieved a breakthrough and Stalin wanted to avert such a thing happening again. Allied intelligence that there is a build up ongoing would merely identify the target area.

No need for a purge - and the Soviet attack would be with the best troops and best commanders attacking to their best ability.
 

Rubicon

Banned
Red army attacking at Kursk
1) Without first exhausting the Wehrmacht on fortifications
2) Into prepared German positions
3) Without an allied landing on Sicily to divert German forces
4) Without air superiority

Smells like Charkov -42 to me (or -43 for that matter)

1.500-2000 Soviet tanks destroyed
500K-800K Red army losses

vs.

250-300 German tanks destroyed
150K-250K German losses

Charkov still in under German control and maybe even Kursk after a German counterattack.

Congratulations you just set the Red Army back 3-6 months and maybe cancelled or delayed the allied invasion of Italy as well as give Mussolini another couple of months in power of Italy.
 
Preemptive attacks

Preemptive attacks are a very tough preposition because :
1 enemy reconeissance will be extremly active if they are planning to attack soon, so surprise will be next to impossible.
2. The enemy will have massed it's best forces there, if they have the numbers to consider attacking they either outnumber us or think very little of us if they don't. Both possibilities do not bode well.
3. The forces forces getting ready to attack us will be concentrated behind the enemy front lines, near good avenues of approach, meaning they will be ideally placed to counter attack our penetrations.
4. If we have superiority and are not attacking there must be a good reason for that.
 

Orry

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For this OP the Russians do not have to strike directly at the German build up. They could attack 40-50KM north or south to push around the German main positions.

We can think of lots of reasons why the Russians should wait but I am looking for the best practical Soviet result IF they attack first not to 'just' mash up the Russian Army.

Hitler was not put off by the Soviet build up in OTL so I see minimum changes to the German OB in this despite misgivings. I also see Hitler being very slow to change his plans after the Russians start their attack - ordering units to hold at all costs whilst continuing to pour troops in for his own offensive.

That said on the defensive we might see some Elephant love.....
 
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Zhukov didn't have all that much to do with the direct plans or shaping of Kursk. By this time in the war Antonov and other officers were involved in influencing Stalin and were easily able to replace Marshal Zhukov if he died.
 

sharlin

Banned
If memory serves the Germans didn't have much in the way of defences, well emplaced defences in the Kursk region, it was all about the offensive for them.

Even if its a disaster for the Soviets they would still accomplish the soviet aim of killing many Germans. The soviets had forces elsewhere along the front that could still attack and on the offensive in Kursk the disparity of forces is still massively in the Soviets favour.
Remember this isnt the soviet army of 1941 that was tactically inept with crap gear.
 
For this OP the Russians do not have to strike directly at the German build up. They could attack 40-50KM north or south to push around the German main positions.

We can think of lots of reasons why the Russians should wait but I am looking for the best practical Soviet result IF they attack first not to 'just' mash up the Russian Army.

Hitler was not put off by the Soviet build up in OTL so I see minimum changes to the German OB in this despite misgivings. I also see Hitler being very slow to change his plans after the Russians start their attack - ordering units to hold at all costs whilst continuing to pour troops in for his own offensive.

That said on the defensive we might see some Elephant love.....

There were two major German concentrations on both sides of a salient. Attacking a bit away from those concentrations (and 40 to 50 km in east front terms is not much) on any side would just put soviet forces holdin a new salient or an expanded bit of the original one that would be a wonderful target for some creative counter attacking.
 
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