Tamerlan destroys the Ottoman Empire
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Just going off of my gut feeling, mind you, but in the absence of a strong Ottoman state, you really have three options. The first is that the Byzantines are able to rebound and try to refill the power vacuum. That will be the favorite of most of the byzantinophiles here, of course 
The second and third options are that either the Bulgarians or Serbs manage to fill the void and take over the Balkans and Constantinople, maybe pressing into Anatolia, which would give us a Slavic dominated empire. Personally, this is my favorite choice, as the thought of a Slavic Empire, rather than an Ottoman Empire is so much more interesting, and also is so rarely done.
I suppose a fourth option would be if a Western dynasty manages to take the city and tries to reconstitute the Latin Empire. I have a feeling this would go less well, but is certainly a possibility as well. I suppose it might be possible for Venice to do it, which may well lead to a dominant merchant Republic in the area, which could also be very interesting.
The second and third options are that either the Bulgarians or Serbs manage to fill the void and take over the Balkans and Constantinople, maybe pressing into Anatolia, which would give us a Slavic dominated empire. Personally, this is my favorite choice, as the thought of a Slavic Empire, rather than an Ottoman Empire is so much more interesting, and also is so rarely done.
I suppose a fourth option would be if a Western dynasty manages to take the city and tries to reconstitute the Latin Empire. I have a feeling this would go less well, but is certainly a possibility as well. I suppose it might be possible for Venice to do it, which may well lead to a dominant merchant Republic in the area, which could also be very interesting.
Well for that to even happen would require that Tamerlane be able to cross over into the Europe to kill the Ottoman heartland and that would open up a tremendous flock of butterflies. I think if he did destroy the Ottomans he'd have a go at Constantinople, which did not fall due to gunpowder (or at least, gunpowder was a small factor). It's entirely possible he obliterates Constantinople as well, which was his SOP for resistance. So I'm thinking Constantinople would fall in 1404-05 or so.
The problem with any state filling the vacuum is that no state has much power at the time except Hungary and Hungary has already digested a lot of land so I'm not sure if it's in a position to take advantage without overstretch. Oh yeah, plus the Hussites are acting up at the time. So I'm thinking Hungary and then a bunch of small feuding states probably with Bulgaria and Wallachia as the foremost of them. Either way the land is not going to be much use to anyone after Tamerlane gets through removing the Ottomans, it being mostly empty.
The problem with any state filling the vacuum is that no state has much power at the time except Hungary and Hungary has already digested a lot of land so I'm not sure if it's in a position to take advantage without overstretch. Oh yeah, plus the Hussites are acting up at the time. So I'm thinking Hungary and then a bunch of small feuding states probably with Bulgaria and Wallachia as the foremost of them. Either way the land is not going to be much use to anyone after Tamerlane gets through removing the Ottomans, it being mostly empty.
Well, with that in mind, could we see a situation where Tamerlan defeats the Ottomans in Anatolia and drives them out of the peninsula? I'm guessing that they wouldn't last long as an isolated Balkan state; being a turkish-muslic ruling class, sitting over a largely Christian-Slavic underclass. They would either fall victim to their neighbors, which might allow either Bulgaria or Serbia get some momentum on their side, or they would likely assimilate and convert. In class case, we still might end up with an *Ottoman Empire, but its a Christian, Slavic state.
If Tamerlan depopulates Anatolia as much as he did other regions, we might even see which ever state gains power, settling people in the peninsula, which throws off its ethnic makeup completely.
Just going off of my gut feeling, mind you, but in the absence of a strong Ottoman state, you really have three options. The first is that the Byzantines are able to rebound and try to refill the power vacuum. That will be the favorite of most of the byzantinophiles here, of course
The second and third options are that either the Bulgarians or Serbs manage to fill the void and take over the Balkans and Constantinople, maybe pressing into Anatolia, which would give us a Slavic dominated empire. Personally, this is my favorite choice, as the thought of a Slavic Empire, rather than an Ottoman Empire is so much more interesting, and also is so rarely done.
I suppose a fourth option would be if a Western dynasty manages to take the city and tries to reconstitute the Latin Empire. I have a feeling this would go less well, but is certainly a possibility as well. I suppose it might be possible for Venice to do it, which may well lead to a dominant merchant Republic in the area, which could also be very interesting.
You are so right regarding option 1.
You are so right regarding option 1.
Even an avid Byzantiophile like me knows Option I is ASB
Even if the Ottomans were destroyed the Byzantines by this point simply do not have the resources to fill the power vacuum. Face it after the disastrous civil war the byzantines cant conquer Anatolia. Even during the late 1300s during the Ottoman civil wars the Byzantines were completely and utterly unable to retake land. I see no different situation here. At most with the Balkans depopulated and Tamerlane retreating maybe the Byzantines can retake Thessaloniki and maybe just maybe take over Thessaly but I am sure with competence the byzzies can definatly retake Thrace. Other than that I see no other land grab for the Byzzies. It will be similar to the land offered to the byzzies by the Sultan Musa I believe and a bit more. Anatolia cant be taken at all. Plus this is only if Tamerlanes empire falls apart.in fact most likely Serbia takes over Macedonia
1)The Byzantines don't have a fleet
2)Cant leave west undefended due to the enroachment of Serbia and Bulgaria
3) Hated by the Venetians who do not want a strong byzantine state
4)Bankrupt
5) No military left
6)Hardly any resources or money available
And a multitude of other reasons.
I am sorry but please realistically the Byzantine resurgence is a pipe-dream.
Btw I have not even gotten to the court intrigues between Manuel and John Paleologos.
I think Dan's options 2 &3, an Orthodox Slavic empire that absorbs an Ottoman state isolated in the Balkans, is really fascinating. How big could such a Slavic empire realistically get? Probably not as big as the Ottoman Empire, but most of the Balkans and western Anatolia seems plausible. How long could such an empire survive? I suppose that partly depends on how badly the Turks in Anatolia have been devestated by Timur; maybe a completely different Turkish dynasty will arise to replace both the Ottomans and the Karamanids and eventually overthrow the Slavic neo-Byzantines?
Also, I'm guessing the existence of a Slavic Orthodox empire centered in Constantinople would have effects on the development of Muscovy/Russia. And if there's no Ottomans/ other powerful Turkish dynasty, who fills the vacuum in the Holy Land and Syria? Mamluk revival? This is a POD with huge potential!
Also, I'm guessing the existence of a Slavic Orthodox empire centered in Constantinople would have effects on the development of Muscovy/Russia. And if there's no Ottomans/ other powerful Turkish dynasty, who fills the vacuum in the Holy Land and Syria? Mamluk revival? This is a POD with huge potential!
An isolated Ottoman state that eventually converts to Christianity would be interesting, I think, especially if survives. One of the "weird things of history."
(Of course, the Turkic elements might disappear entirely, as they did with the Bulgars. It might just end up a standard Slavic kingdom ruled by a dynasty with a Turkic name, which would be IMO rather dull.)
It'd be interesting if this Christian Ottoman state retained some Ottoman traditions--they could retain the Janissary Corps (minus the conversion to Islam part) to create soldiers and administrators loyal only to the monarch. Or they could even adopt a Mameluke-esque system and buy pagan slaves (from places where they're still available, which might not be substantial) for this purpose.
However, I think any Muslim conqueror that emerges from Asia Minor and pushes into the Balkans would not be fans, due to the whole apostasy thing.
(Of course, the Turkic elements might disappear entirely, as they did with the Bulgars. It might just end up a standard Slavic kingdom ruled by a dynasty with a Turkic name, which would be IMO rather dull.)
It'd be interesting if this Christian Ottoman state retained some Ottoman traditions--they could retain the Janissary Corps (minus the conversion to Islam part) to create soldiers and administrators loyal only to the monarch. Or they could even adopt a Mameluke-esque system and buy pagan slaves (from places where they're still available, which might not be substantial) for this purpose.
However, I think any Muslim conqueror that emerges from Asia Minor and pushes into the Balkans would not be fans, due to the whole apostasy thing.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
So what would be the point of converting into Christianity? The majority of the Ottoman population prior to the conquest of Egypt were Orthodox Christians and the Sultans did marry women of Byzantine, Serbian and Bulgarian royal stock but that didn't necessarily make them inclined to convert to Christianity. Granted, there was Jahja who did promise to make Christianity the state religion of the Ottoman Empire but he had almost no chance to take the throne.
Because an Ottoman state that was reduced to only its Balkan holdings, with no grasp on Anatolia, is going to have no power base within its realm. Even if a majority of its citizens were Orthodox, prior to the conquest of Egypt, as you say in OTL, it still had a powerbase amongst the Muslim Turks of Anatolia that it could draw off of in order to maintain itself. In this ATL, that is not the case; they have been pushed completely out of Anatolia, creating a rump Ottoman state in the Balkans whose population is Orthodox and Slavic, with only the ruling class being of Muslim Turkish descent. That situation a stable state does not make.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
As Abdul has pointed out, there was already extensive Muslim Turkic settlement of the Balkans, particularly in modern Bulgaria, beginning in the late thirteenth century. The Ottomans were quite pragmatic in bringing in settlers from Anatolia into the Balkans. If Timur crosses the Bosphorus with his army to face whatever's left of the Ottomans, it is ensured that Turkic tribes will follow the Timurid army and settle into the Balkans. And it's noted there was already a pre-Ottoman Turkic presence: mostly remnants of Turkic invaders settled there by the Byzantines.
Losing Anatolia does not doom the Ottomans by any means.
Shorter: The Ottoman power base WAS the Balkans.
The question however is when does it reach critical mass. To be fair, that 19% is going to be significantly smaller over a century prior. It's possible that's it's not enough by 1402, especially if Tamerlane kills a lot of resisting Ottoman manpower in Europe. After all, in the civil war, Suleiman had the Balkans but he still lost to Mehmed who had only part of Anatolia.
Regardless, this was why I had to postulate Timur crossing over into Europe to destroy the Ottomans, because otherwise I don't think it's likely to happen. The Ottomans did just fine with an Orthodox population who almost always chose the Ottomans over the Catholics. So too, the earlier beys in charge of conquering the Balkans were just as likely to be Orthodox Christians as Muslims and it was only later (after 1453) that all of the families converted, to say nothing of the administrative class.
The question however is when does it reach critical mass. To be fair, that 19% is going to be significantly smaller over a century prior. It's possible that's it's not enough by 1402, especially if Tamerlane kills a lot of resisting Ottoman manpower in Europe. After all, in the civil war, Suleiman had the Balkans but he still lost to Mehmed who had only part of Anatolia.
Regardless, this was why I had to postulate Timur crossing over into Europe to destroy the Ottomans, because otherwise I don't think it's likely to happen. The Ottomans did just fine with an Orthodox population who almost always chose the Ottomans over the Catholics. So too, the earlier beys in charge of conquering the Balkans were just as likely to be Orthodox Christians as Muslims and it was only later (after 1453) that all of the families converted, to say nothing of the administrative class.
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Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Fair point. Where is Timur going to get the ships to go across into the Balkans? The Genoese and Venetiansdid transport the remnants of the Ottoman army back to safety which did anger Timur.
Well I'm actually hand waving it for the purposes of discussing the question, since the only way for him to destroy the empire is to cross over into the Balkan territories.
Maybe... the Genoese and Venetians split over commercial rivalries? One sides with Tamerlane, one with the Osmanli? In OTL both knew that Timur would just slaughter them (or cart the sexy or useful ones back to Samarkand I guess) as soon as he didn't need them but people have been stupid before.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
This would be a good idea. I would just say it's just easier if the Timurids had a wee bit more luck and captured the entire Ottoman army, including Bayezid's sons. You can't have an Ottoman empire if all the princes are either dead or captured. He bribes the Venetians and Genoese to send him across and he finishes off the Ottomans. That's possible but after that, I'm not so sure what happens.
The survival of an Ottoman state in the Balkans presupposes Timur not crossing or being turned back, which nixes that wave of Turkish settlement.
So any new ideas of how Timur gets across? We could just assume it and go from there, but is it possible for his elephants to make the crossing? That might be an important factor in just how bad a Tamerlane rampage will get.
Even an avid Byzantiophile like me knows Option I is ASB
in fact most likely Serbia takes over Macedonia
1)The Byzantines don't have a fleet
2)Cant leave west undefended due to the enroachment of Serbia and Bulgaria
3) Hated by the Venetians who do not want a strong byzantine state
4)Bankrupt
5) No military left
6)Hardly any resources or money available
And a multitude of other reasons.
I am sorry but please realistically the Byzantine resurgence is a pipe-dream.
Btw I have not even gotten to the court intrigues between Manuel and John Paleologos.
I'm agreeing with you.....don't worry......But it is a nice dream, though.
Yes it's a nice dream that the Byzantines manage to overcome all odds and creat a shuperpower after the civil war.