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As the tin says. The best POD I can think of is the Northern Alliance's recapture of Baghram Airbase in 1998.
It was an utter disaster for the Taliban Air Force which lost 70% of their planes.
Lets say they get word of Massoud's offensive and block his recapture of the field allowing them to move their Aircraft out.
Without the loss of its valuable planes, the IEAAF goes back to supporting the Taliban Army advance.