Taking Gibraltar: New Idea

Losing Gibraltar means Malta falls so the British save resources not having to supply Gibraltar or Malta, but at the cost of being unable to interdict the Axis very well in 1942-43. That also frees up a fairly large amount of Axis resources that were tied up fighting Malta and trying to lock down the Central Mediterranean, so these forces have to be factored in, especially if they show up in the Canary Island campaign.
This! Also, most of the ships that ended up on the seabed due to operations out of Malta go on to reach their destination, and you get the ships back afterwards.
 
wiking wrote:

With what forces? Where do these come from and what suffers as a result? Its convenient to simply state they would take them, without noting how or with what. Also you aren't factoring in losses, as the Axis will be hitting the invasion force by air and via Uboat too. So while the British could take it, it would come at a cost, the question being what exactly that cost would be.
Losing Gibraltar means Malta falls so the British save resources not having to supply Gibraltar or Malta, but at the cost of being unable to interdict the Axis very well in 1942-43. That also frees up a fairly large amount of Axis resources that were tied up fighting Malta and trying to lock down the Central Mediterranean, so these forces have to be factored in, especially if they show up in the Canary Island campaign.
Plus Axis naval forces could then exit the Mediterranean after Gibraltar can no longer interdict the straights, which means Italian and Spanish naval forces can operate in the Atlantic, especially their submarines. Italy won't need to keep as much of its naval power locked down in the Central Mediterranean either, so it can harass the Eastern Mediterranean or Atlantic at will (and depending on fuel supplies). Britain needs to factor in the resulting pressure on the Vichy French, who now are surrounded by Axis belligerent powers, and the Spanish fleet in the Atlantic.
http://www.kbismarck.com/mgl/cruisers.htm
Plus there now is the threat of German airpower in Spain and Uboats operating from its naval bases. Portugal then has the problem of being next to a belligerent Axis power, which is likely to force it to be even more pro-Axis than it was historically. That could mean Axis spies/units in the Azores.
https://sites.google.com/a/coldie.ne...l/Spanish-Navy
And Spanish merchant raiders, merchant raiders being highly effective in WW2, would now be trolling the Atlantic in higher numbers, putting even more pressure on the RN to escort convoys instead of taking offensive action against the Canaries.

There's so much wrong with this post that it's difficult to know where to start - but I'll give it a go!

The first mistaken assumption is that the British will simply wait passively for the Spanish to declare war at the optimum time for them: in reality Britain will know what the Spanish and Germans are up to long before they can put their plans into practice: Enigma was broken, and it seems highly likely that the Spanish ciphers have also been cracked. Additionally, there were high-ranking British sympathisers in the Spanish armed forces (especially the navy) who were supplying intelligence to the UK. The British are not going to sit idly by as the Spanish permit a build-up of German forces on their soil while still pretending to be neutral: the moment the first German soldier crosses the Pyrenees or the first German aircraft touches down on a Spanish airfield, Spain will be deemed to be a de facto belligerent and the British will take appropriate measures. The Canaries will be occupied long before they can be fortified, Gibraltar will be reinforced, the Spanish coast will be blockaded, and the RAF will begin bombing Spanish cities - indeed, the early raids could be carried out in daylight, given that the Spanish have no radar, and only a few fighters capable of catching a Hampden or Wellington (some Bf109's left over from the Condor Legion plus possibly a handful of I-16's captured from the Republicans). What do you imagine Franco will do when (say) a hundred Wellingtons appear over Madrid in broad daylight and plaster the city? He will obviously scream for Germany either to supply fighters for the Spanish Air Force or station units in Spain to defend its cities. Where are these resources going to come from? Spain is a large country and you could tie-up the entire Luftwaffe fighter force in defending it.

Secondly, where do you get the idea that Portugal was pro-Axis? It seems to me it was far more pro-British, and this would only become more marked if Spain (the hereditary enemy) was in Germany's camp.

Thirdly, what will the population of Spain be eating, and where will it get its fuel? Spain needed to import large quantities of food and oil, and this won't be possible once the British begin blockading the country - Germany certainly doesn't have any to spare.

Fourthly, merchant raiders didn't operate in the North Atlantic - they went further afield to places where merchant shipping was not yet being convoyed, and the British were already convoying ships in the Atlantic, so there'd be no change there. In any event how many fast, modern merchant ships did Spain have available to be converted to raiders? The Spanish Navy was also a bit of a joke at the time - it was basically a collection of reefs-in-waiting, so would hardly constitute a great addition to Axis strength.

Fifthly, it's false logic to argue that if Gibraltar falls then Malta also falls: the ships of Force H could be redeployed to Alexandria which would make it easier to fight convoys through from the Eastern end.

Sixthly, Italian ships were not designed for Atlantic service: they had poor seaworthiness and short ranges by British standards.
 
Enigma was not that comprehensively broken in 1940 hence the Germans achieving surprise in Norway and France... Operations with Spain could be coordinated by courier and landline telephone anyway

This idea about the British reinforcing Gibraltar is crazy... The rock found 4 or 5 battalions to be overcrowded

Also the idea of taking the canaries 1940-41 is questionable. The canaries are as close to axis airbases in morocco and mainland Spain as Crete was to Greek air strips... Admittedly the British held on at Malta in the face of air attack but they would lose a lot of ships taking and holding the canaries
 
Enigma was not that comprehensively broken in 1940 hence the Germans achieving surprise in Norway and France... Operations with Spain could be coordinated by courier and landline telephone anyway

This idea about the British reinforcing Gibraltar is crazy... The rock found 4 or 5 battalions to be overcrowded

Also the idea of taking the canaries 1940-41 is questionable. The canaries are as close to axis airbases in morocco and mainland Spain as Crete was to Greek air strips... Admittedly the British held on at Malta in the face of air attack but they would lose a lot of ships taking and holding the canaries

So can you tell me where the shipping, manpower, construction matierial, food water, transport and spare aircraft are going to come from, because I can't see where they are going to find shipping by sea or transport all this through an European 3 world state that has be wracked by civil war and had it's infrastructure pretty much destroyed, which in incapable of keeping it's population fed and warm without large amounts of imports.

Supplying the canary Islands by sea is a lot less risky than supplying Malta, for a start the Atlantic is a lot bigger than the med so you can come in from any angle, unload and then skiddaddle out into a big open Atlantic which makes finding the ships then interdicting them much much harder, plus Spanish Morocco is a lot less developed than Italy or Sicily, so you have to improve infrastructure, find fuel for transport, build airstrips, find supplies for men and machines.

In actual fact it looks like a net gain for the Allies if Gib is attacked, if the fort holds out for 2 months, we get the Canary Islands to base out of, Tie up all the aircraft, troops and shipping that will be used for the Afrika Corps and probably more, get the US onside and massively over extend the Axis supply lines, gives our Subs more to go at as well.

We might even get the Vichy fleet coming over to us as the Vichy governmental are obviously collaborating with the Axis powers.

Bring it on I say.
 
I guess it would depend on how comprehensively isolated the fortress was - as if there was any degree of British support or preparation, the siege could take a while to be effective.

If the British are able to usefully shell or bomb the artillery positions; or the relevant road or rail connections the siege will be a slower affair.

In my dazed and sometimes drunken state I can recall lots of awkward approaches that while easily dealt with by modern Spanish infrastructure would be a bit more awkward with pre war level roads or rail.

I guess though there is the perhaps fair assumption that by the time the fortress is invested the British don't really have anything nearby that isn't already at the fortress.
 
What does Spain get out of this apart for a few sqare miles of rock?

There was a reason why Franco wasn't interested.
 
What does Spain get out of this apart for a few sqare miles of rock?

There was a reason why Franco wasn't interested.[/QUOTEt

I believe Hitler and Franco had a meeting and Franco was demanding the FWA.. However there is disagreement on whether this was a true offer or Franco was just trying to get out of i.
 
What does Spain get out of this apart for a few sqare miles of rock?

There was a reason why Franco wasn't interested.


They would get a seat at the peace conference, which can include lots of goodies: reparations, trade agreements, bits and pieces of colonies, being in Germany's good graces etc.


Although, for this to work, Franco would have to think a German victory was inevitable and just around the corner (e.g. way better performance in France and Norway) and tone down his demands, whilst Hitler would have to be persuaded that one last push in the Med would be enough to get the British to negotiate, and thus promise Franco whatever he would want to hear (this being Hitler, I doubt he would have a problem with using agreements as toilet paper)
 

BlondieBC

Banned
wiking wrote:

Snip

The problem is the UK lacks forces to deploy more than the will to deploy. A lot depends on the assumptions based on the TL on how the exact details play out, but we can safely say the UK is not conducting major operations in NW Africa in 1940 or 1941 with a huge cost somewhere else. So likely little happens besides a probable attempt at the Canaries. Like most Axis naval buffs, the Japanese come out a winner. We will see fewer troops/ships in the Eastern Indian Ocean and Pacific bases.

Your next point about needing a lot of help for Spain is true. Spanish entry into the war only makes sense if the German attack to the East is delayed or cancelled. And yes, the people of Spain will suffer.

Portugal has tough situation to handle ITTL. If writing a TL, it would be a major event to analysis. Same with the Vichy government. A lot depends on what the UK tries to do, and what the UK is able to accomplish.

The merchant raider wills get into the North Atlantic easier, and they will cause issues for the UK. There are plenty of hulls around to use in the Med. Having to patrol more areas, convoy more ships, and do these activities more intensely will make the RN life a lot harder.

Malta does fall. Why? Because almost any TL with Spain entering the war means we have Germany swinging towards a more Med focus strategy. Malta could have been taken, if the will was there for the Axis.

Sure the Italian ships may not be ideal, but they are functional. And a lot of it will be the threat possessed by them more than the realization. For example, just like BB were assigned to cover convoys to Russia due to German BB, we will see more BB needed to be assigned to convoys in the Atlantic. I see Japan as the big winner in this respect. They only way to free up enough warships for the UK before the USA enters the war is to find a compromise with Japan. For a TL, we would have to consider that WW2 in the Pacific might be butterflied away. Losing Gibraltar (really more Germany doing a Med strategy that goes with it), means the UK will be much more sorely pressed ITTL than IOTL. And a lot of the effect will be more subtle, but cost more. The UK will likely divert shipping (convoys) much farther west, which means each ship carries less goods each year.

Note: If you are getting Spain joining the war for a brief burst of Med Strategy with Hitler still hitting Russia on time, you get a lot different war.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
They would get a seat at the peace conference, which can include lots of goodies: reparations, trade agreements, bits and pieces of colonies, being in Germany's good graces etc.


Although, for this to work, Franco would have to think a German victory was inevitable and just around the corner (e.g. way better performance in France and Norway) and tone down his demands, whilst Hitler would have to be persuaded that one last push in the Med would be enough to get the British to negotiate, and thus promise Franco whatever he would want to hear (this being Hitler, I doubt he would have a problem with using agreements as toilet paper)

Agreed, but the main thing is Franco avoids a hostile Hitler. If Hitler was willing to insist (i.e. France knows he is sending troops to take Gibraltar with or without Spain permission), he will cave. He will actually agree long before this one.

I don't have Hitler as a big colony man, so he may well be willing to expand Spanish colonies in Africa at the expense of the Vichy. Or give Spain border adjustments into France proper. But I see a Franco entering more as a Franco avoiding a hostile/angry Hitler than Franco seeing a big strategic gain.

And Gibraltar is a sore spot with the Spanish pride, if we assume it eventually goes back to Spain.
 
even if the Brits can't take the Canaries (debatable), what happens when the USA joins the fray? Will the Canaries and Azores be the first target instead of N. Africa? Or would the allies let them wither on the vine and still go into French NA as per OTL?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
even if the Brits can't take the Canaries (debatable), what happens when the USA joins the fray? Will the Canaries and Azores be the first target instead of N. Africa? Or would the allies let them wither on the vine and still go into French NA as per OTL?

Considering the USA had pre-entry to WW2 plans to take the Islands of the North Atlantic, it is a pretty safe bet we take any Nazi island controlled in the Atlantic.
 

Cook

Banned
What does Spain get out of this apart for a few sqare miles of rock?

There was a reason why Franco wasn't interested.
Gibraltar was peripheral for Franco, it is as you said, just a few square miles of rock. What he wanted was French Morocco, the western half of Algeria including Oran, and the French Sahara. It was Franco who first approached the Germans with offer to enter the war on June 14 1940, the day the Germans occupied Paris and several days before the French government requested an armistice. Spanish forces occupied the League of Nations administered city of Tangiers on the same day.

The offer was rejected by Hitler because he wished to keep the French empire together to prevent the British seizing as much of it as they could (something they did anyway over the next eighteen months) and because it was likely that any claims on France’s overseas empire would see the French fleet sail to British ports; it was for this latter reason that Hitler rejected Mussolini’s claims to Tunisia, Corsica and parts of Metropolitan France. Petain and Darlan’s interests were always more important to Hitler than Franco’s simply because, even defeated, France’s potential as a help against the British exceeded anything Franco could provide.

Franco also requested material assistance from Germany to enter the war, mainly oil and agricultural produce; Spain was just barely starting to recover from the war and was dependent on oil and wheat shipped from America, these the German’s would need to replace if Franco entered the war. The Spanish shopping list was forwarded to Berlin by the German ambassador in Madrid along with a note from him stating that in his opinion the Spanish were being far too optimistic about their requirements and would need considerably more from Germany and that it would be wise if the Spanish request were rejected.

Without entering the war, Franco permitted German U-boats to be reprovisioned and rearmed in Spanish ports and allowed the Luftwaffe and Regia Aeronautica to use Spanish airbases on occasion.

If you had a scenario in which French North Africa remained in the war along with the French fleet then Gibraltar may come into play, but French North Africa was far too well defended for Franco to try his hand at; the Wehrmacht would have to be committed.
 
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I did Ex Marble Tor a couple of years ago - tunnel fighting inside the rock. We only saw a tiny fraction of the tunnels, and that was pretty jaw-dropping, the entire Rock is a proper honeycomb. Flooding it with water or gas isn't going to happen - it was designed to deal with both.

That being said, it won't help much - it's value is as a harbour and air base, and both are very easily neutralised from Spain. It's real defence was that anybody attacking it is basically going to have to get Spain in the war on the Axis side - which given how wrecked they were after the Civil War means Franco wouldn't be keen and the Germans would have to provide a lot of support and would only get small numbers of infantry in return...
 
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