Taiping Win, Still Rule China Today

The theology of Sino-Christianity (as Taipingism may come to be generally known outside China, altho Chinese may just call it "Christianity") wasn't any farther from traditional Christian theology than Mormonism, and arguably was closer.

Agreed.

However, there is one respect in which the Taipings' actions were both well-documented and reprehensible, and that is their treatment of Manchu noncombatants. In OTL, when Nanjing fell to the Taiping, not only did they massacre the Manchu soldiers at the garrison there, but their families as well. In this ATL, the fall of Beijing and extention of Taiping rule over all of China including Manchuria, would have resulted in an even larger slaughter, quite possibly even an extermination campaign against all of China's 5 million Manchus, whom Hong Xiuquan believed to be literal devils.

If so, the historical record of the Manchu genocide could create long-term problems for acceptance of Sino-Christiany outside China (where of course it would be whitewashed from the history books). Opponents of the religion could convincingly argue: How could anyone who presided over the murders of so many women and children, be the brother of Christ? .

There are Old Testament precedents. Unless Taiping Xtianity causes Christianity itself to evolve differently, however, I expect that this would become a problem.

To a certain extent because of interdenominational polemics though these might be muted both because most Christian denominations have regrettable incidents in their own past, or feel guilty about their support for colonialism, or whatever, and because Western guilt (and condescension) is likely to give them a pass. ("We shouldn't criticize the Chinese Christians, it shows a lack of understanding of their past and unique cultural conditions, and, also, you can't expect them to really get what Christianity is about anyway.")

But I expect the main source of Christian criticism to be internal. I do NOT expect that Taiping Christianity will successfully remain a monolothic arm to a continuous, oppressive, authoritarian state. Which means that at some point Taiping believers are going to have to accommodate their past. They're going to have to accept that the Manchus were literally devils (a position that will be hard to sustain in today's world) or else come up with a theology that is much more accepting of destruction and violence than mainstream christianity today or minimize Hong's role in their religion.

However, I do expect significant criticism from non-Christian westerners. The Manchu Massacre would be just too handy a club for anti-religious polemics. Dawkins will have at least a chapter on it.

One caveat is that Hong Xiuquan himself didn't seem to care much one way or the other about Western science.

About Western science and technology specifically I think you're right. But if I recall he was hungry for Western approval and open to Western ideas in general.
 
Was looking at Madison's historical population and GDP estimates for China here .

In OTL 1850, China was the world's largest economy, accounting for around 20% of world GDP (PPP). By 1950 it had fallen to around 5% of world GDP.

So if over the past 160 years, a Taiping-dynasty China had just kept pace with the world GDP growth rate (which from 1850-1950, was only about 2% per year), China would have remained at 20% of world GDP, and today would have a GDP (PPP) of $17 trillion, instead of $7 trillion.
 
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Would appreciate any knowledgeable input on likely effects of a successful Taiping revolution on Japan, and on European interaction with Japan.

In OTL, Japan was lucky enough to escape colonization during the window it needed to modernize its military.

Does it seem less likely that it would still get that window in this ATL?

If not, maybe instead of the British and French teaming up to force unequal treaties on the Qing in the 2nd Opium War of OTL, they instead team up to colonize Japan, with Britain getting northern Honshu and Shikoku, while France gets south Honshu, Hokkaido and Kyushu.
 
And what kinds of interactions would the Taipings have with contemporary Christian movements that also had unorthodox ideas about additional scripture, continuing revelation, and the quasi-divine potential of certain members of mankind? In the Great War of the 1920s, would the most decorated units be federalized elements of the Nauvoo Legion, burning with the desire to punish the heretics who broke the Concord with Salt Lake in 1912 and who even had the temerity to 'excommunicate' the Prophet?

Perhaps if butterflies from the Taiping victory in China somehow lead to a Confederate victory in the ACW, then Deseret becomes a independent nation...
 
Perhaps if butterflies from the Taiping victory in China somehow lead to a Confederate victory in the ACW, then Deseret becomes a independent nation...

Pretty unlikely.

But I do think a more successful Taiping is going to have some real effects on Mormonism as a religion--they have the same kinds of theological enemies and will be attracting the same kinds of criticism, and Mormon theology has features that would make Mormonism hospitable to some kind of outreach to the Taiping. Plus the elite Taiping are going to be polygamous in the Chinese tradition and this will further incline Mormons to see them favorably. Plus elements of the Taiping themselves are pretty eagar for western approval and might be attracted to Mormon contacts for that reason. None of this is certain, or even highly likely, but its not unlikely.

I think you'd have to have a lot of butterflies to get a 'China becomes Mormon' or 'Mormons become Taiping'-type wank. Its not at all likely. But you might get some pretty interesting cross-fertilization.
 
Perhaps if butterflies from the Taiping victory in China somehow lead to a Confederate victory in the ACW, then Deseret becomes a independent nation...
There is no possible way to connect the two events that I can see.

Would appreciate any knowledgeable input on likely effects of a successful Taiping revolution on Japan, and on European interaction with Japan.

In OTL, Japan was lucky enough to escape colonization during the window it needed to modernize its military.

Does it seem less likely that it would still get that window in this ATL?
IMO it could go either way.
 
Pretty unlikely.

But I do think a more successful Taiping is going to have some real effects on Mormonism as a religion--they have the same kinds of theological enemies and will be attracting the same kinds of criticism, and Mormon theology has features that would make Mormonism hospitable to some kind of outreach to the Taiping. Plus the elite Taiping are going to be polygamous in the Chinese tradition and this will further incline Mormons to see them favorably. Plus elements of the Taiping themselves are pretty eagar for western approval and might be attracted to Mormon contacts for that reason. None of this is certain, or even highly likely, but its not unlikely.

I think you'd have to have a lot of butterflies to get a 'China becomes Mormon' or 'Mormons become Taiping'-type wank. Its not at all likely. But you might get some pretty interesting cross-fertilization.

Is there anything in Taiping/Sino-Christian theology which is incompatible with anything in Mormon theology? Could someone found a third religion in which the Bible, Hong's additions to the Bible, and the Book of Mormon are all considered sacred texts?
 
Is there anything in Taiping/Sino-Christian theology which is incompatible with anything in Mormon theology? Could someone found a third religion in which the Bible, Hong's additions to the Bible, and the Book of Mormon are all considered sacred texts?

Of course Mormons believed a lot of stuff the Taiping didn't and vice versa, but as far as I know neither group ever made a point of rejecting any belief that turned out to be important to the other group.

From what I know about both groups (Mormons, quite a lot, Taiping, less than I used to) I'd say that the big sticking points are going to be (1) the relative statuses of Joseph Smith and the Mormon prophets vis-a-vis Hong and his ATL successors in religious authority and (2) the idea that the Manchus were literally devils (in Mormonism devils have no flesh). (3) If Hong is literally claiming that there are 4 and only 4 members of the Godhead, the 4th member being him, Mormons would also object strongly to that. But as long as it gets interpreted as somewhat metaphorical, or at least non-exclusive, Mormson could probably accept it. The first two really won't be a problem for a founder of a third religion, since he'd resolve the authority problem by claiming that he was the authority and since he could resolve the devil problem by claiming that the Manchus were only servants of the devil or, at most, all literally posessed by devils. The 3rd would require the non-exclusive version of Hong's claim to be God's Second Son or else would require some drastic changes to Mormon belief.

After Hong dies, you might get a native Chinese Mormon critique of the ruling dynasty. They would interpret Hong in Mormon terms, claiming that his greedy successors had perverted his message for gain and power. This would allow them to claim to be good Sino-Christians while simultaneously giving them a position from which to oppose the dynasty.
 
Would appreciate any knowledgeable input on likely effects of a successful Taiping revolution on Japan, and on European interaction with Japan.

In OTL, Japan was lucky enough to escape colonization during the window it needed to modernize its military.

Does it seem less likely that it would still get that window in this ATL?

If not, maybe instead of the British and French teaming up to force unequal treaties on the Qing in the 2nd Opium War of OTL, they instead team up to colonize Japan, with Britain getting northern Honshu and Shikoku, while France gets south Honshu, Hokkaido and Kyushu.

The priority for European nations, and the USA, was opening up of the country for trade. This was done by intimidation, and by force if necessary, such as Perry's Black Ships and subsequent incursions. Once the ports were open, and European citizens had extra-territoriality (immunity from local law) then the job was deemed a good one

Britain has ties with Satsuma (Kagoshima) including arms exporting, whilst France's ties were with the Shogunate itself in Edo.

Britain and France have no need to invade or attack if they can get what they want - after all, this is the same pattern in China as well. The major difference is the existence of the daimyo - in area of Japan, European powers would not be dealing with some governor remote from the centre of power, with a daimyo secure (usually) in his own domain.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
(3) If Hong is literally claiming that there are 4 and only 4 members of the Godhead, the 4th member being him, Mormons would also object strongly to that. But as long as it gets interpreted as somewhat metaphorical, or at least non-exclusive, Mormson could probably accept it.

I'm not sure if Hong was actually claiming to be a member of the Godhead. My understanding is that Sino-Christianity was Arian in nature: Jesus was divinely conceived, but he was still a created being, not God, and the same was true of his brother Hong as well. Only the Father was uncreated and truly God.

In Mormonism, are Jesus and the Holy Spirit also considered to be creations of the Father?

Also IIRC it may not even be clear that Hong believed himself to be divinely conceived, and hence Jesus's brother in more than a figurative sense, since in his writings he described some of the very early Chinese kings as God's sons as well.

If there were a translation of Hong's writings available online, that would be interesting reading. I can't find one tho.
 
Butterfly effects mean if there is still a circa 1914 European Great War, it starts a little differently than in OTL, and unfolds differently as well. Which side, if any, does Taiping China ally with?
Answering my own question: Taiping China would almost certainly be on the side of the Central Powers.

France is likely to have already fought a war with the Taiping over Indochina,while the UK and Taiping might also have previously fought, over the Taiping ban on opium. And Russia and China have historic boundry disputes.

Prussia is a logical ally of the Taiping from the beginning. The Prussians might provide the Taiping with advisors to help them modernize their armed forces, as it is in their interest for China to threaten British and French colonial interests in the Far East.

And the entrance of Taiping China into the Great War on the Central Powers side would have greatly increased the chances of a German victory.

A Chinese invasion of Siberia would force Russia to fight a two-front war, reducing pressure on Germany's Eastern front, while the UK would have to divert resources to protect India and Hong Kong (assuming Japan is not a European colony in this ATL, it enters the war on the side of the UK).

If the Central Powers win, and things go very badly for Russia, it could lose both Siberia to China, and Ukraine to Germany.

Then circa 1920, the world is dominated by three first-tier great powers: German Empire, USA, and Taiping China, with the British Empire bordering on first-tier (assuming Britain doesn't lose its colonies in a settlement with Germany).
 
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I'm not sure if Hong was actually claiming to be a member of the Godhead. My understanding is that Sino-Christianity was Arian in nature: Jesus was divinely conceived, but he was still a created being, not God, and the same was true of his brother Hong as well. Only the Father was uncreated and truly God.

In Mormonism, are Jesus and the Holy Spirit also considered to be creations of the Father?

Also IIRC it may not even be clear that Hong believed himself to be divinely conceived, and hence Jesus's brother in more than a figurative sense, since in his writings he described some of the very early Chinese kings as God's sons as well.

If there were a translation of Hong's writings available online, that would be interesting reading. I can't find one tho.

Its a little messy in Mormonism. Mormons believe that Christ was already in existence as God the Son before his mortal conception. But Mormons also believe that everybody's soul was already in existence before their birth. This is not a very well defined area of belief in Mormonism.
 
Answering my own question: Taiping China would almost certainly be on the side of the Central Powers.

But would Russia go to war if it knew a fairly well-armed Taiping China was going to hit it in the rear? Likewise, if Germany wasn't as afraid of the growing might of Russia, would Germany be as likely to try and precipitate a war before Russia caught up to Germany, as in OTL? Remember WWI was elective in lots of ways.

The point is that a Meiji China is going to change everyone's strategic calculations and as a result is going to change the resulting power structure. OTL WWI plus Taiping China is not going to happen.
 
But would Russia go to war if it knew a fairly well-armed Taiping China was going to hit it in the rear?

Maybe not, but keeping Russia out of the war would have the same effect of helping Germany, except to an even greater degree.

Likewise, if Germany wasn't as afraid of the growing might of Russia, would Germany be as likely to try and precipitate a war before Russia caught up to Germany, as in OTL? Remember WWI was elective in lots of ways.

The point is that a Meiji China is going to change everyone's strategic calculations and as a result is going to change the resulting power structure. OTL WWI plus Taiping China is not going to happen.
Start with the premise that Taiping China allies with Germany, for the reasons I described.

UK and France will probably still end up allied with each other against Germany (assuming that Germany has an authoritarian political system in this ATL too).

A-H Empire will probably still be allied with Germany.

Maybe Russia stays neutral (or they even ally with Germany).

So the basic alliance structure would be the same, except for Russia.

And if you still had a Great War involving Germany on one side, and UK + France on the other, the absence of Russia, plus Taiping threat to the UK colonies, would make Germany a lot more likely to win it.

I agree that it's far from certain any such war would still happen. Taking Russia out of the UK/France column, and adding Taiping China to the German column, might make UK/France decide the balance is too heavily in the German favor, so they try to avoid war, if they can.

But it appears the existence of Taiping China is likely to produce a longer-lasting German Empire, either by Germany winning the Great War, or by it never being fought.
 
There is no possible way to connect the two events that I can see.

An ATL where the Taiping and CSA both win is interesting, but I don't see any way one naturally leads to the other either.

Unless, if you assume that (despite the North's population and economic advantages) the most probable outcome of the ACW was actually a CSA victory, with the CSA only losing in OTL due to flukes like the Lost Order, then the random butterflies from a Taiping victory would tend to produce a CSA victory. That of course would certainly be a questionable assumption tho.
 
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