T.R. reelected in 1908; Ramifications?

[JRScott]

I believe largely he would have continued to meddle in the affairs of Latin America, particularly in their failure to reach debt obligations to Europeans. This would mean continued taking control of various customs offices and dock offices to ensure that the Europeans could be paid. This caused a lot of problems with Latin American countries OTL and that problems would linger with TR in office. They resented being forced to pay back the Europeans under American supervision.

He would continue to increase the US Navy. This probably means increased fortification of Panama, and I could see him attempting to incorporated Panama into the United States proper.

Increased US investments in the territories gained during the Spanish-American war are also very likely including the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Guam. As well as increased investments in the protectorates of Cuba and Hawa'ii. He would be moving towards locally elected Governor Generals and legislators. TR sees these territories as necessary to project power, he is going to move them to rapid advancement and towards joining the United States more firmly particularly the ones in the Pacific.

Cuba is odd in how he treated it compared to the others, perhaps because he had fought there. He had supported an independent state in Cuba, while not in the Philippines, but it had collapsed. Shortly before winning in 08 there would again be an 'independent government'. I believe he would move to stronger ties with Cuba realizing that he could not help truly the people unless they decided to join officially. He might work with Jose-Miguel Gomez in the hopes of having Cuba made a formal territory of the United States or even possibly state. He would probably personally visit many of these territories as he did Panama, he was the first US president to leave the country during his terms. Thus I could see him laying groundwork to have Cuba become a potential state in the future.

TR is not going to like the European involvement in Mexico such as Germany smuggling weapons in. Not something he's going to like at all. Wilson did a measured response to the Mexican Revolution, TR is going to be far more bold I believe after I've done some more reading. Remember 45% of the Mexican Economy including land is owned by Americans, a failure of the Mexican Economy could have dire consequences at home. Long accustomed to intervening to stop European powers.

He'll deploy troops like Taft did in OTL. The difference here will be as I said before under TR the Republicans are going to keep the house and senate, this will make it easier for TR to wage war than it was for Taft. My guess is that if asked by TR the US Congress gives approval narrowly for war and military intervention. He'll then enter Mexico with the purpose of protecting US Investments into the country. Once he has armed forces and a Navy deployed he will attempt to act as a negotiator and arbitrator over the war, seeking to end the war with minimal loss of life but also in the most favorable terms possible.

The Mexican Revolution though involved many sides and it is unlikely that it would be possible to get a favorable agreement from all sides. In the end TR is likely to take Mexico as a territory, seeing it as a way to cement US power on the North American continent by providing further access to the Panama canal. It is unlikely he'd be able to outright finish this before he leaves office in 1912. Those Mexican states that are almost entirely owned by the United States could well become real territories and on a pathway to statehood at this point.

This means in my little timeline above I bet he runs for reelection in 1912 to finish the job. I believe largely given he's defending US interests and the considerable investments in Mexico he will largely be successful in winning a 4th term. (The 22nd Amendment will probably come earlier, but not until after TR is dead). European powers are probably going to be a bit worried about these developments, at the same time many of them have their own troubles.

Still with the United States-Mexican war going on it is likely sadly WWI would still occur on schedule, just the United States will have a much larger and much more veteran force but the Europeans will be wanting to keep the Americans out of it as much as possible. (History will probably mark the start of WWI as to the start of the Mexican Revolution in 1910 instead of 1914).

Indeed Germany might try to sink an earlier alliance with Mexico promising to help its war debts and rebuilt it if only it will help oppose the United States. Some of the groups in Mexico will be lured by the offer. It is an enticing one and they had already had Germany running weapons to them.

Germany might also seek other powers in Central America. TR will mostly press the war in Mexico and Central America, leaving much of the European fighting to the Europeans. He'll send naval assets to help guard convoys and a draft will come that will grant citizenship not only to Puerto Ricans, but Cubans, Mexicans, Hawaiians, Philippinos and others who join the military and serve in the war.

Elections of 1916, the Bull Moose pushes for it, we are still at war, there is much work to do to secure our place in the annuals of time. TR will not live out to see this term, his 5th. He will be the only president to ever serve 5 terms (because after his death, the new 18th Amendment will prevent it).

Still he would see the claiming of all territory from the mainland of the United States to Panama. Making the United States one of the largest empires in the annuals of time. His Vice President, Charles W. Fairbanks would precede him in death by a year leaving the VP slot vacant as is custom of the time. At the time of his death I think TR would be trying to establish peace in Europe and thus peace in the World, though I doubt he'd be willing to give Mexico up he probably would allow many of the central american countries to be independent territories.

Robert Bacon, the Secretary of State would be the next President and he would die in May 1919 four months after TR. (I'll have to study more to see who he would have as Secretary of State).

I expect the 20th and 22nd Amendments will actually pass in 1919 and thus be the 18th and 19th Amendments. The 18th Amendment will be the 20th Amendment (yes it would still pass). and the 19th Amendment would become the 21st Amendment. The 21st Amendment would become the 22nd Amendment.

 

[Timmy811]

Increased US investments in the territories gained during the Spanish-American war are also very likely including the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Guam. As well as increased investments in the protectorates of Cuba and Hawa'ii. He would be moving towards locally elected Governor Generals and legislators. TR sees these territories as necessary to project power, he is going to move them to rapid advancement and towards joining the United States more firmly particularly the ones in the Pacific.

Cuba is odd in how he treated it compared to the others, perhaps because he had fought there. He had supported an independent state in Cuba, while not in the Philippines, but it had collapsed. Shortly before winning in 08 there would again be an 'independent government'. I believe he would move to stronger ties with Cuba realizing that he could not help truly the people unless they decided to join officially. He might work with Jose-Miguel Gomez in the hopes of having Cuba made a formal territory of the United States or even possibly state. He would probably personally visit many of these territories as he did Panama, he was the first US president to leave the country during his terms. Thus I could see him laying groundwork to have Cuba become a potential state in the future.

TR is not going to like the European involvement in Mexico such as Germany smuggling weapons in. Not something he's going to like at all. Wilson did a measured response to the Mexican Revolution, TR is going to be far more bold I believe after I've done some more reading. Remember 45% of the Mexican Economy including land is owned by Americans, a failure of the Mexican Economy could have dire consequences at home. Long accustomed to intervening to stop European powers.

He'll deploy troops like Taft did in OTL. The difference here will be as I said before under TR the Republicans are going to keep the house and senate, this will make it easier for TR to wage war than it was for Taft. My guess is that if asked by TR the US Congress gives approval narrowly for war and military intervention. He'll then enter Mexico with the purpose of protecting US Investments into the country. Once he has armed forces and a Navy deployed he will attempt to act as a negotiator and arbitrator over the war, seeking to end the war with minimal loss of life but also in the most favorable terms possible.

The Mexican Revolution though involved many sides and it is unlikely that it would be possible to get a favorable agreement from all sides. In the end TR is likely to take Mexico as a territory, seeing it as a way to cement US power on the North American continent by providing further access to the Panama canal. It is unlikely he'd be able to outright finish this before he leaves office in 1912. Those Mexican states that are almost entirely owned by the United States could well become real territories and on a pathway to statehood at this point.

This means in my little timeline above I bet he runs for reelection in 1912 to finish the job. I believe largely given he's defending US interests and the considerable investments in Mexico he will largely be successful in winning a 4th term. (The 22nd Amendment will probably come earlier, but not until after TR is dead). European powers are probably going to be a bit worried about these developments, at the same time many of them have their own troubles.

Still with the United States-Mexican war going on it is likely sadly WWI would still occur on schedule, just the United States will have a much larger and much more veteran force but the Europeans will be wanting to keep the Americans out of it as much as possible. (History will probably mark the start of WWI as to the start of the Mexican Revolution in 1910 instead of 1914).

Indeed Germany might try to sink an earlier alliance with Mexico promising to help its war debts and rebuilt it if only it will help oppose the United States. Some of the groups in Mexico will be lured by the offer. It is an enticing one and they had already had Germany running weapons to them.

Germany might also seek other powers in Central America. TR will mostly press the war in Mexico and Central America, leaving much of the European fighting to the Europeans. He'll send naval assets to help guard convoys and a draft will come that will grant citizenship not only to Puerto Ricans, but Cubans, Mexicans, Hawaiians, Philippinos and others who join the military and serve in the war.

Elections of 1916, the Bull Moose pushes for it, we are still at war, there is much work to do to secure our place in the annuals of time. TR will not live out to see this term, his 5th. He will be the only president to ever serve 5 terms (because after his death, the new 18th Amendment will prevent it).

Still he would see the claiming of all territory from the mainland of the United States to Panama. Making the United States one of the largest empires in the annuals of time. His Vice President, Charles W. Fairbanks would precede him in death by a year leaving the VP slot vacant as is custom of the time. At the time of his death I think TR would be trying to establish peace in Europe and thus peace in the World, though I doubt he'd be willing to give Mexico up he probably would allow many of the central american countries to be independent territories.

Robert Bacon, the Secretary of State would be the next President and he would die in May 1919 four months after TR. (I'll have to study more to see who he would have as Secretary of State).

I expect the 20th and 22nd Amendments will actually pass in 1919 and thus be the 18th and 19th Amendments. The 18th Amendment will be the 20th Amendment (yes it would still pass). and the 19th Amendment would become the 21st Amendment. The 21st Amendment would become the 22nd Amendment.

First of all Hawaii's already a territory not a protectorate.

And there's no way America's going to claim all of Mexico and Central America. It's just too much. The resistance from the natives, the American public and European powers against such a thing would be overwhelming.

Here's a census map of Mexico from 1910. The provinces behind the red line have 1,892,271 people (2% of the U.S. population). Something like that could be possible, but even that's a huge area of mountainous terrain. An America involved in pacifying that isn't going to be getting involved in any European wars anytime soon.

Click to expand and read population numbers.

 

[snerfuplz]

Let us not forget the Mexicans had been fighting a war since 1910 and the United States Army at this time was a sad puny force that was wrapped up in a brutal war in the Philippines that would end in 1913 (officially ended under TR term but you know about actual end dates). To tell you the truth minus something like the Veracruz operation a bold intervention into Mexico would end in disaster for the United States.

 

[JRScott]

Let us not forget the Mexicans had been fighting a war since 1910 and the United States Army at this time was a sad puny force that was wrapped up in a brutal war in the Philippines that would end in 1913 (officially ended under TR term but you know about actual end dates). To tell you the truth minus something like the Veracruz operation a bold intervention into Mexico would end in disaster for the United States.

Ah yes you know Germany thought the same thing . They thought the Americans could never reach Europe , however they were also surprised when the US Army went to 3 million in short order.....course this was after they'd been sinking our ships for a while.

 

[JRScott]

First of all Hawaii's already a territory not a protectorate.

And there's no way America's going to claim all of Mexico and Central America. It's just too much. The resistance from the natives, the American public and European powers against such a thing would be overwhelming.

Here's a census map of Mexico from 1910. The provinces behind the red line have 1,892,271 people (2% of the U.S. population). Something like that could be possible, but even that's a huge area of mountainous terrain. An America involved in pacifying that isn't going to be getting involved in any European wars anytime soon.

Click to expand and read population numbers.

I do agree it would be impractical to control every square inch of territory. Most of Latin and South America as well as the Caribbean did not like TR OTL, because of his meddling, they didn't consider it much better than Europe. I'm not even saying they could hold it long after his death. But hard to put everything in one post.

Your line is pretty good but I'd include the other two states of the Republic of the Rio Grande into the states in the red line.

The territory that is above the red line is where the major US investments were, you could have TR stop there and hold the line. It would add the following potential states to the United States: Baja California 9,760, Baja California Sur 42,512, Sonora 265,383, Sinaloa 323,642, Chihuahua 405,707, Durango 483,175 and Coahuila 363,092. If you added the other states of the Republic of the Rio Grande would also add Nuevo Leon 365,150 and Tamaulipas 249,641. Obviously Baja California and Baja California Sur are to small to become states really but if you don't take them present a vulnerability to defense.

He would probably negotiate with Mexico and ask it to recognize US authority over the territory above the red line in exchange possibly for assuming some of Mexico's debt and help with Mexican infrastructure. Just because this happens does not mean they don't leave later, no territory acquired since 1900 has ever become a state historically, often they are released as time goes by.

The strong ties with the United States of these states at this time period could though influence them to actually join. It would be interesting the culture and other changes in the United States, as Spanish would become a more prominent language early on.

A 3rd, 4th and possible 5th term of TR though I believe Hawaii would become a state during his presidency as there were many efforts during this time period that lacked executive push to become, TR could push it through. This could interestingly have remifications if WWII comes, as Hawaii would be a state not just a mere territory when attacked.

I'll say though that the Southern States would oppose the inclusion of the Mexican states as States for the same reason they opposed Hawaii's OTL, however the longer term of TR could impact this as he believed men should be judged by the quality of their character not the color of their skin (at least with respect to blacks, hispanics and asians, he didn't hold Indians in high regard oddly enough). Indeed domestically racial relations could advance by a decade or two under TR's administration, Wilson's administration was heavily noted for its racism, which you'd avoid in this scenario.

 

[Timmy811]

I do agree it would be impractical to control every square inch of territory. Most of Latin and South America as well as the Caribbean did not like TR OTL, because of his meddling, they didn't consider it much better than Europe. I'm not even saying they could hold it long after his death. But hard to put everything in one post.

Your line is pretty good but I'd include the other two states of the Republic of the Rio Grande into the states in the red line.

The territory that is above the red line is where the major US investments were, you could have TR stop there and hold the line. It would add the following potential states to the United States: Baja California 9,760, Baja California Sur 42,512, Sonora 265,383, Sinaloa 323,642, Chihuahua 405,707, Durango 483,175 and Coahuila 363,092. If you added the other states of the Republic of the Rio Grande would also add Nuevo Leon 365,150 and Tamaulipas 249,641. Obviously Baja California and Baja California Sur are to small to become states really but if you don't take them present a vulnerability to defense.

...

I'll say though that the Southern States would oppose the inclusion of the Mexican states as States for the same reason they opposed Hawaii's OTL, however the longer term of TR could impact this as he believed men should be judged by the quality of their character not the color of their skin (at least with respect to blacks, hispanics and asians, he didn't hold Indians in high regard oddly enough). Indeed domestically racial relations could advance by a decade or two under TR's administration, Wilson's administration was heavily noted for its racism, which you'd avoid in this scenario.

Those territories would be consolidated before they became states. The two Bajas would be merged, as would Sinalo and Durango, Sonora and Chihuahua, and Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. It would take decades for Baja California to grow enough to become a state, so that would only mean six Mexican senators any time soon. Given that they would almost certainly be Republican, their statehood could be given support in the north and west.

 

[JRScott]

Those territories would be consolidated before they became states. The two Bajas would be merged, as would Sinalo and Durango, Sonora and Chihuahua, and Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas. It would take decades for Baja California to grow enough to become a state, so that would only mean six Mexican senators any time soon. Given that they would almost certainly be Republican, their statehood could be given support in the north and west.

I could see merging Baja California and Baja California Sur, however all of the others have populations well in excess of what Hawaii had when it became a state, no need to merge them. The two merged Baja California's would have about the same population as Hawaii around this time.

Large states do not serve the people well and never had, they work to suppress minority voices. For example if you live in Northern California you probably feel your vote is wasted because Southern California which is far more populous will always vote Democratic, same if you lived in the Houston area of Texas but reversed . Madison warned of the dangers of big states, we probably should of listened better .

 

[Timmy811]

I could see merging Baja California and Baja California Sur, however all of the others have populations well in excess of what Hawaii had when it became a state, no need to merge them. The two merged Baja California's would have about the same population as Hawaii around this time.

Large states do not serve the people well and never had, they work to suppress minority voices. For example if you live in Northern California you probably feel your vote is wasted because Southern California which is far more populous will always vote Democratic, same if you lived in the Houston area of Texas but reversed . Madison warned of the dangers of big states, we probably should of listened better .

Republican leaning or not, no one in the U.S. is going to want 8 Mexican states with 16 senators. Three states (in the short term, 4 in the long term) with only six senators would be much more palatable to the Americans of the time. Even the biggest of those states would only be 2/3rds the size of Texas. It's workable.

 

[Tetsurō]

What about intervention in Haiti and the Dominican Republic at the sametime with regards to the Roosevelt Corollary?

 

[snerfuplz]

Ah yes you know Germany thought the same thing . They thought the Americans could never reach Europe , however they were also surprised when the US Army went to 3 million in short order.....course this was after they'd been sinking our ships for a while.

But if it wasn't for the Royal Navy we would never have gotten there in the first place.

 

[snerfuplz]

I'll say though that the Southern States would oppose the inclusion of the Mexican states as States for the same reason they opposed Hawaii's OTL, however the longer term of TR could impact this as he believed men should be judged by the quality of their character not the color of their skin (at least with respect to blacks, hispanics and asians, he didn't hold Indians in high regard oddly enough). Indeed domestically racial relations could advance by a decade or two under TR's administration, Wilson's administration was heavily noted for its racism, which you'd avoid in this scenario.

It wasn't just the Southern states Northern Senators would object to the introduction of so many dirty Papist brown people. An annexation of Mexico flies in the face of almost a hundred years of American colonization. By this mean finding small sparsely populated islands to set up coaling stations for trade. The only time the United States tried to colonize a large populated area, even the colonization of the West didn't have that much population, the Philippines it ended almost in disaster and this was under TR himself who was forced to officially end the war even if it continued outside of the media.

 

[Timmy811]

It wasn't just the Southern states Northern Senators would object to the introduction of so many dirty Papist brown people. An annexation of Mexico flies in the face of almost a hundred years of American colonization. By this mean finding small sparsely populated islands to set up coaling stations for trade. The only time the United States tried to colonize a large populated area, even the colonization of the West didn't have that much population, the Philippines it ended almost in disaster and this was under TR himself who was forced to officially end the war even if it continued outside of the media.

The Philippines were far away, very poor and densely populated with more than twice the population of the territory we're speaking of. And it was the Muslims in Mindanao that gave us the most problems.

This land is right next door, sparsely populated, can be swamped with American migrates, and is already integrated into the American economy with much of the economic infrastructure already owned by Americans. By 1900 1/6th of the US population is Catholic. Plenty of politicians in the North were Catholic.

 

[snerfuplz]

The Philippines were far away, very poor and densely populated with more than twice the population of the territory we're speaking of. And it was the Muslims in Mindanao that gave us the most problems.

This land is right next door, sparsely populated, can be swamped with American migrates, and is already integrated into the American economy with much of the economic infrastructure already owned by Americans. By 1900 1/6th of the US population is Catholic. Plenty of politicians in the North were Catholic.

But the US military at this time was also very small and I believe would have trouble controlling the porous border and keeping security. The American public of course would be outraged at another Imperialist War and all it would take is one massacre in the media and the war is all over.

 

[JRScott]

It wasn't just the Southern states Northern Senators would object to the introduction of so many dirty Papist brown people. An annexation of Mexico flies in the face of almost a hundred years of American colonization. By this mean finding small sparsely populated islands to set up coaling stations for trade. The only time the United States tried to colonize a large populated area, even the colonization of the West didn't have that much population, the Philippines it ended almost in disaster and this was under TR himself who was forced to officially end the war even if it continued outside of the media.

The North is largely Catholic at this time. TR isn't one to give up . He was a strong a personality as FDR ever was.

This time though he's going to protect American interests, after all we own 47% of the territory in question. He's just moving to protect our interests is all. It could and probably would pass mustard.

 

[JRScott]

But the US military at this time was also very small and I believe would have trouble controlling the porous border and keeping security. The American public of course would be outraged at another Imperialist War and all it would take is one massacre in the media and the war is all over.

Our Army increased ten fold at the start of WWI, which Germany hadn't counted on and what ultimately led to their loss.

It's all in how you craft it, remember 47% of Mexico is owned by Americans at this time, it could be seen as a way to protect American interests and American citizens working in Mexico.

 

[JRScott]

The Philippines were far away, very poor and densely populated with more than twice the population of the territory we're speaking of. And it was the Muslims in Mindanao that gave us the most problems.

This land is right next door, sparsely populated, can be swamped with American migrates, and is already integrated into the American economy with much of the economic infrastructure already owned by Americans. By 1900 1/6th of the US population is Catholic. Plenty of politicians in the North were Catholic.

Cool we agree on this

 

[Timmy811]

Cool we agree on this

I don't think I'm as sanguine on the topic as you, I'm kind of in the middle. I think it's doable, but I think it would be a huge, defining and divisive issue in American politics for 20 years.

Without entering WWI though, America has the luxury of focusing on Imperialism in Central and South America as a defining issue. There won't be another big foreign policy issue until Japan in the late 30s.