Syrian-Turkish war in the 50s/60s over the Hatay Peninsula

In November 1956, as a result of the Suez Crisis, Syria signed a pact with the Soviet Union, in which the Soviet Union agreed to give to arm the Syrian Army. This frightened Turkey, since it feared with this new technology, Syria would attempt to reclaim the Hatay Peninsula, which had been hotly contested by Turkey and Syria since it's cession by the French Mandate of Syria to Turkey in 1939.

Eventually, the United Nations intervened to calm the dispute and the dispute has been more or less peaceful ever since, but what if war broke out between Syria and Turkey over the Hatay Peninsula in either the '50s or '60s?
 

GarethC

Donor
In 1952, Turkey joins NATO. Syria would be inviting direct response from the US (USN 6th Fleet out of Naples had at least one carrier group, sometimes two).

NATO planning specifically included defending Turkey - cf. Exercise Longstep.

After Suez, Syria attacking Turkey is inviting Article 5 invocation and a significant NATO response that has a few possible outcomes:
1) NATO air squishes Syrian air, logistics. Turkish ground forces rout Syrians. Antebellum status quo restored. Syria faces internal unrest.
2) NATO air squishes Syrian everything. NATO amphibious support (either opposed at Latakia or administrative in Lebanon) cuts country in two in unsurprisingly short time, regime change, Soviet embarrassment, US emboldenment to do something more exciting to support Batista in Cuba or something.
3) NATO intervention triggers Soviet response, escalation to Korea, Berlin, Fulda Gap. Vera Lynn sings. If in the 1950s, the US may only get its hair mussed - 10 million, maybe 20 million killed tops. Depending on the breaks.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Soviet turkish border favors the defenders so probably no soviet intervention

Arab nationalism may mean Syria gets support from arab socialist/ baathist states
 
Soviet turkish border favors the defenders so probably no soviet intervention

I'd argue no Soviet intervention is more for political reasons (why risk WWIII to bail out your dubious client state) and military ones (far fewer nukes) than the terrain per se-the Soviets ran tons of successful operations in WWII in rough terrain.
 
While NATO does have every reason to get involved, I'm inclined to believe that (barring a full Soviet intervention, not just weapons sales) even alone Turkey would probably win. All they'd have to do is stall until the next coup in Damascus.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Syria can potentially pick a fight with Jordan but taking on Turkey alone is worse than attacking israel alone
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
There's no evidence that Syria ever planned on resolving the Hatay incident with force. They had and have far more pressing matters on their southwest border.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
There's no evidence that Syria ever planned on resolving the Hatay incident with force. They had and have far more pressing matters on their southwest border.

But could Syria try to press Turkey with insurgent and terrorist infiltrators?

I don't think this would ever lead the Syrians to win, but it might piss off the Turks enough so that the Turks become the ones to escalate things to conventional war against Syria first.

Is a Syria that's traded some punches with Turkey up for as much shenanigans on their Israeli and Arab state borders?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
But could Syria try to press Turkey with insurgent and terrorist infiltrators?

I don't think this would ever lead the Syrians to win, but it might piss off the Turks enough so that the Turks become the ones to escalate things to conventional war against Syria first.

Is a Syria that's traded some punches with Turkey up for as much shenanigans on their Israeli and Arab state borders?
Hafez assisted the PKK in OTL. When Turkey demanded Syria cease its support and expel the PKK in 1998, Syria immediately backed down and complied.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Hafez assisted the PKK in OTL. When Turkey demanded Syria cease its support and expel the PKK in 1998, Syria immediately backed down and complied.

Yep, I knew that, and 1950s or 1960s Syria might similarly back down.

But 1950s, 1960s Syria might be cockier. It might feel it can rely on Soviet support, and Israel and the US had not thrown around their military weight so much in the region yet. Post Cold War, post Gulf War, Syria knew the odds of fighting a US ally would just be awful, and there was no way to paper over it.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
1974
Operating out of syrian port Soviet made syrian subs sink most the turkish troopships intended for operation Atilla 1 & 2

Greek turkish tensions lead to full scale war

Grecoturkish wars goes badly for Turkey and in the ensuing crisis syria makes its move
 
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