Syrian-Iraqi conflict 1990-2010

Pellaeon

Banned
Bashir al Assad and Saddam Hussein did not like each other at all despite being both officially Baathists. Assad supported the coalition during the gulf war and was supportive of Iran during the Iran-Iraq War(though Syria was itself busy at the time).

How can we have a struggle between the two Baathist states anywhere from 1990 to 2010. Obviously such a war and its immediate causes would butterfly away the gulf war and Iraq war at least as we know them.

Is such a conflict possible? If so who would prevail?
 
Bashir al Assad and Saddam Hussein did not like each other at all despite being both officially Baathists. Assad supported the coalition during the gulf war and was supportive of Iran during the Iran-Iraq War(though Syria was itself busy at the time).

How can we have a struggle between the two Baathist states anywhere from 1990 to 2010. Obviously such a war and its immediate causes would butterfly away the gulf war and Iraq war at least as we know them.

Is such a conflict possible?
Starting such a war would be difficult at the time since Iraq probably won't be looking for a fight against a country like Syria which, while smaller than Iraq, is rather large and all the real geopolitical goals are to the south at this time (or seem to be.)


If so who would prevail?
Probably Iraq since Russia and Iran aren't in a position to be of much help back then and Iraq had the second largest army in the world in the early 90s (although it was a paper tiger.)

Really the answer is whoever the US supports
 
Perhaps an earlier PoD would help? Throughout the 70s there were attempts to unify Syria and Iraq that all collapsed due to power struggles between the Syrian and Iraqi Baathists. Perhaps you could finagle it so that one attempt succeeds in briefly joining the states in some sort of confederation only for it to come apart violently due to aforementioned power struggles?

Or, maybe you could somehow prevent the Iranian Revolution but still have the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood uprisings. Faced with a strong Imperial Iran to his east, Saddam might instead turn his attention west, deciding to take advantage of the chaos in Syria to move on Syrian oil fields and neuter an old foe.

I don't know, just spitballing
 
Throughout the 70s there were attempts to unify Syria and Iraq that all collapsed due to power struggles between the Syrian and Iraqi Baathists. Perhaps you could finagle it so that one attempt succeeds in briefly joining the states in some sort of confederation only for it to come apart violently due to aforementioned power struggles?
There was one attempt but it would have made Assad number 2 under al bakr so an attempt to break away doesn't make much sense

but still have the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood uprisings
You would need have them turn into an insurgency or into a civil war as the otl uprising were crushed in a month
 
A second Iraq-Iran war but this time Syria helps Iran. I think you would see interesting things.
 
^ This strikes me as the most likely scenario, though not very likely. Why will Syria risk a conflict when it is already pinned down on its western front versus Israel?
 
Top