Syrian civil war ends in 2012?

In the summer of 2012, there was a glimmer of hope that the war in Syria could have been brought to an end as rebel forces stormed the capital and killed several senior ministers and commanders in a bombing.

What if the operation had been more successful and Bashar Assad had been killed in the attack or had been forced to flee to Latakia?
 

Ian_W

Banned
You've still got the issue that 'rebel forces' of 2012 weren't exactly a unified group with a single recognised leadership.

And thats without the impending split within AQ in Syria between the 'main line' and 'Da3sh' groups that partly happened in 2013 because of rebel successes.

I'd say similar to Afghanistan, you'd then get a second civil war over who runs the post-Assad Syria.
 

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
You've still got the issue that 'rebel forces' of 2012 weren't exactly a unified group with a single recognized leadership.

And thats without the impending split within AQ in Syria between the 'main line' and 'Da3sh' groups that partly happened in 2013 because of rebel successes.

I'd say similar to Afghanistan, you'd then get a second civil war over who runs the post-Assad Syria.

Either Bashar Al-Assad flees for Lebanon or he is captured and killed, if the former occurs Hezbollah (backed by Iran) could launch an invasion of Syria, especially if people start getting angry at the rule of the new Syrian Government, being very likely headed by the Muslim Brotherhood. Since it is highly like that the Muslim Brotherhood would win any elections held for the new Syrian government.

Although regime would have considerable support from the Obama administration (Along Turkey and the Gulf States) seeing them as preferable both to Assad, Hezbollah, The Kurds (particularly for Turkey) and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The ISIL would have never declared a caliphate and remain a fairly marginal group, although Al Qaeda would still split off from them. Especially given a Muslim brotherhood regime would be in power in Syria.

Such a regime with widespread backing and support from various countries could successfully defend itself from various enemies and exert it's influence into the Sunni regions of Iraq. However the downside of this regime is that both the Christian and especially the Alawite populations are going to suffer from intense persecution, similar to what is happening to Coptic Egyptians in recent years. Also both Turkey and the new Syrian regime could join up forces to suppress the Kurds, therefore; the Kurds would be losers as well.

Essentially the main victor in this TL is Turkey and it's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan's prestige among the Turkish public would be boosted a bit. However It would be a significant setback for Iran, because of losing an ally and possibly bringing forth the uprising which occured in OTL December 2017 somewhat earlier.
 
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There would be a rump Alawite state backed up by Russia and Iran while a second civil war rages on over the leadership of the country with increasing jihadist influence
 
What if the operation had been more successful and Bashar Assad had been killed in the attack or had been forced to flee to Latakia?

This cannot happen, even if they kill Assad, another member of his family would take over.

Also, the rebel force was heavily outnumbered, it was impossible for them to capture the capital.
 

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
Adding further on my previous post, a Muslim brotherhood regime in Syria would force a lot of Alawite, Christian, Druze and perhaps Shia refguees into neighboring countries namely Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. Perhaps the refugee crisis that Europe would face would be a predominately Christian, minorities of Alwaites, Druze, Shia and Sunni Muslims.

The Alwaites are going to be special targets for slaughter and ethnic cleansing, the other groups would face persecution but not the sort of treatment which would be metered out to the Alwaites. Because the Assad family are Alwaites and Alwaites formed the base support for the regime.

As I see it the Alwaites like the Alevi's came out of Twelver Shiism, however their doctrines developed in a direction that they can't really be seen as Muslims. Both don't subscribe to both the five pillars and six principles of Islam, rather I would argue they are a Post-Islamic religion like Mormonism can be see as a Post-Christian religion. The Druze religion (they don't regard themselves as Muslim) went in a similar direction to both the Alwaites and Alevi's, however they came out of Ismailism and regard one of the Fatimid caliphs Al-Hakim in very high regard. It would be kind of cool if a Timeline developed that one of these religions became a major world religion, perhaps the Ottoman dynasty adopted Alevism as their official religion instead of Sunni Islam could be a POD.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Essentially the main victor in this TL is Turkey and it's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan's prestige among the Turkish public would be boosted a bit. However It would be a significant setback for Iran, because of losing an ally and possibly bringing forth the uprising which occured in OTL December 2017 somewhat earlier.

How does Israel feel about this? On the one hand, they've broken the Tehran-Damascus-Hizballah axis. On the other hand, they have an MB run Syria on their back by a Turkey which is becoming increasingly hostile to Israel, with both the Turks and fledgling Syria regime possibly liking the political "drama" a higher level of tension with Israel creates.
 

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
How does Israel feel about this? On the one hand, they've broken the Tehran-Damascus-Hizballah axis. On the other hand, they have an MB run Syria on their back by a Turkey which is becoming increasingly hostile to Israel, with both the Turks and fledgling Syria regime possibly liking the political "drama" a higher level of tension with Israel creates.

That is a very good question, I have not thought of that consequence yet.

However if the Muslim brotherhood experience of running Egypt is anywhere to go by. I don't how long such a regime in Syria would last before even the Sunni Muslims get sick of the rule of the Muslim brotherhood. At the very least the Muslim brotherhood atrocities could equal that of the Assad regime (minus the suppression of the Islamist uprising in the early 1980's).
 
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Either Bashar Al-Assad flees for Lebanon or he is captured and killed, if the former occurs Hezbollah (backed by Iran) could launch an invasion of Syria, especially if people start getting angry at the rule of the new Syrian Government, being very likely headed by the Muslim Brotherhood. Since it is highly like that the Muslim Brotherhood would win any elections held for the new Syrian government.
There won't be any elections the rebel groups like in Libya are not united , The civil war would continue over who would rule the Sunni majority areas of Syria while the Alawites run a rump state on the coast
 

Teejay

Gone Fishin'
There won't be any elections the rebel groups like in Libya are not united , The civil war would continue over who would rule the Sunni majority areas of Syria while the Alawites run a rump state on the coast

You could right, the result of that conflict would result likely with the Islamic State emerge out on top and take over essentially all of Syria (apart from the Alwaite rump state and the Kurdish regions) in such a conflict.
 

ar-pharazon

Banned
Even in 2012 jihadist and Islamist groups were overpowering the secular opposition. If Assad falls this early I expect massive persecution and outright slaughter of religious minorities. The Iranians won't let this go unanswered and will throw everything into backing the Alawites and any remaining Assad loyalists. The Russians will be terrified as well not just losing their middle eastern port but that foreign fighters from the Caucasus will go to Syria and come back with experience.

The Israelis will be happy that their northern rival is gone but an Islamist Syria will not be making peace with Israel. Any incursions will of course be dealt with quickly. Hezbollah will do anything to prevent the inevitable second civil war from overrunning Lebanon(there was enough spillover violence in Lebanon as it was).

The various rebel factions will squabble and fight each other for loot, territory, and resources. Warlords and suicide bombings will be the name of the day.

The refugee crisis will be far worse-with countless minorities fleeing the inevitable slaughter they wil, face at Sunni rebel hands and people just trying to escape the chaos and shattering of society a rebel victory would cause.

I expect the Saudis and Gulf States will try to compete with Turkey over influence on the various Sunni groups and warlords thus further increasing the bloodshed.

It could lead to an earlier crisis within the Iranian regime-as it won't be as willing to negotiate with the west as its geopolitical position will be far weaker. If the unrest that occurred at the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018 occurs it could spread this time and worst case scenario would be either a hardline crackdown or outright civil war in Iran.
 
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