Syria pulls an Egypt

samcster94

Banned
What can be done to get Syria to reluctantly recognize Israel, akin to how Egypt recognized it??? I am not expecting Syria to do it out of the kindness of its heart, but for political reasons more like a Golan Heights as Gaza 2.0.
 
What can be done to get Syria to reluctantly recognize Israel, akin to how Egypt recognized it??? I am not expecting Syria to do it out of the kindness of its heart, but for political reasons more like a Golan Heights as Gaza 2.0.

Losing support from Iran and Hezbollah which is dangerous for the Alawitw regime.
 
What can be done to get Syria to reluctantly recognize Israel, akin to how Egypt recognized it??? I am not expecting Syria to do it out of the kindness of its heart, but for political reasons more like a Golan Heights as Gaza 2.0.

Have Israel return the Golan unconditionally, supporters of the Palestinian cause they may be, their own territory ranks higher in priority
 

werewolf

Banned
What can be done to get Syria to reluctantly recognize Israel, akin to how Egypt recognized it??? I am not expecting Syria to do it out of the kindness of its heart, but for political reasons more like a Golan Heights as Gaza 2.0.

to pull an egypt syria would need to have a more secure and legitimate governing system

only a majority gov with broad mandate can do real detente with israel without a revolution

syria with its minority rule cannot recognize israel it will destroy the weak foundation of alawi domination

in addition russian sponsorship and limited need in western investment removes incentives to make peace between pre 2011 syria and israel
 
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How did Egypt pull it off OTL???

Sadat was killed soon after, his successor kept his policy going on though. But not even Mubarak was spared at the end. The leaders will face problems regardless. Egypt's benefit is being a overwhelming Sunni country ruled by (secular) Sunnis. Syria is ruled by an Alawi government over a majority Sunni country.
 
Another thing that would appese Damascus is if the Israelis actually make an unbiased Peace with Ramallah, iirc Damascus would make peace if the Palestinians find the treaty acceptable...but that would mean '67 borders which Israel would reject
 

werewolf

Banned
How did Egypt pull it off OTL???

egypt is fundamentally different from syria it has a strong identity and culture including strategic culture
egypt wasn't invented by european imperialists and lacks syrian centrifugal identity politics

a strong realist egyptian leader (sadat) could change egyptian alignment in the name of egyptian national interest
syria never had the power and the will power to deify the other arab states

pan syrian ideology also makes relations with lebanon jordan and israel prone to crisis as the syrian state tries to manipulate its neighbours
 
Sadat was killed soon after, his successor kept his policy going on though. But not even Mubarak was spared at the end. The leaders will face problems regardless. Egypt's benefit is being a overwhelming Sunni country ruled by (secular) Sunnis. Syria is ruled by an Alawi government over a majority Sunni country.

But as the crisis has shown, sectarianism in Syria is overblown
 
This isn't that far-fetched; throughout the 1990s (under Rabin, Peres, Netanyahu's first government, and then most seriously under Barak) they negotiated a return of the Golan Heights and a peace treaty with Israel. The talks with Barak came quite close to succeeding. The last talks foundered on Hafez Assad's insistence on the entire Golan being returned and Barak wanting to retain control of both shores of Lake Kinneret / Sea of Galilee.

There were also secret talks between Netanyahu's government and Bashar Assad in 2010 that were cutoff because of the outbreak of the Arab Spring.
 
But as the crisis has shown, sectarianism in Syria is overblown

Eh actually, no. It is fortunately not like Iraq but there is a sense of sectarianism in Syria but due to the rise of Al Qaida and ISIS during the war people tend to stay away from sectarianism out of fear of being associated with them. Especially between 2012 and 2015 this was problematic.
 
Losing support from Iran and Hezbollah which is dangerous for the Alawitw regime.

They'd still have the support of Russia, who is an infinitely better ally imo

a strong realist egyptian leader (sadat) could change egyptian alignment in the name of egyptian national interest
syria never had the power and the will power to deify the other arab states

This isn't that far-fetched; throughout the 1990s (under Rabin, Peres, Netanyahu's first government, and then most seriously under Barak) they negotiated a return of the Golan Heights and a peace treaty with Israel. The talks with Barak came quite close to succeeding. The last talks foundered on Hafez Assad's insistence on the entire Golan being returned and Barak wanting to retain control of both shores of Lake Kinneret / Sea of Galilee.

There were also secret talks between Netanyahu's government and Bashar Assad in 2010 that were cutoff because of the outbreak of the Arab Spring.
It wouldn't be such a stupid move as it looks in the first place. Yes, Syria is now totally dependent on Russia and Iran. So much so, that parts of Syrian politics can be dictated by those countries. Assad will be confronted by that, and he's not going to like it. In the 70's Egypt was quite dependent on foreign aid from the USSR and for various economic and political reasons did this aid become less and less desirable for the Egyptian government. The peace with Israel was also a way to politically break with the USSR and get much more usefull aid from the USA instead. This was one of the major motivations for Sadat to go that path.
Syria is now almost a pariah in the worldcommunity, and that could be undone by an action like this. There's only one snag, Assad himself is at the moment too stained by the recent war and to be accepted will be impossible or at least take some decades (like Ghadaffi). It will be too hard for a US president to sell this buyout in the USA (at this moment)
 
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