Syria intervenes in the Second Lebanon War

Vladimir

Banned
During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Syria which had been supplying Hezbollah with weaponry, intervened. President Bashar al-Assad considered Hezbollah an important asset. Now lets say that Assad was under heavy pressure from his close ally Iran, who considered Hezbollah's rocket arsenal a deterrent to an Israeli attack and feared its destruction, and let's also say Israel implemented an plan which was scrapped that included bombing two Syrian transport targets as part of its effort to choke off Hezbollah.

Israeli intelligence had detected Syria's buildup and imminent attack, so in the days preceding the attack, aircraft and ground forces were placed on high alert, and Israel increased its troops and armor.

During the Battle of Bint Jbeil in late July, the Syrians make their move. Armor and infantry attack the left flank of IDF brigades operating in South Lebanon. Mobile anti-aircraft units are included in the advance to counter the threat of air attack. At the same time, the Syrian Air Force deploys over Lebanon to counter the IAF. Syrian missiles are also fired at Israeli airbases and IDF forces positioned along the Lebanon border, and though Israel's Arrow missile defense system is formidable, I cannot rule out the possibility that at least some of them will hit. Although Syria's Soviet-era tanks are inferior to the Merkava, they vastly outnumber IDF armored forces. Syrian troops are inferior in equipment in training, but somewhat outnumber the IDF's combat brigades in Lebanon: numbers aren't all that significant because the IDF had detected the Syrian threat and reinforced its brigades. Syrian pilots are less trained than their Israeli counterparts, and most of their aircraft are inferior to the IAF, but their MiG-29s are still a formidable match to Israel's F-15s and F-16s. Syria decides to confine the war to Lebanon and thus does not go after Israeli population centers.

How does the rest of the war play out? Is there more international pressure for a ceasefire? How does Israel retaliate? And what will be the geopolitical implications of Syrian intervention?
 
I envision the following possibly happening as a worst case scenario:

Israel would probably start bombing damascus and then the Syrians retaliate by escalating the war into the Golan Heights, West Bank, and missile and air attacks into Northern Israel.

Palestine and Gaza erupt even more than they already were.

Israel starts decimating the Syrian military, but fails to advance that far into Lebanon or Syria. Large casualties of course on the arab side, but also for the Israelis

Increasingly direct involvment by the US and Iran in the Israeli-Arab conflict causes Iraq to begin to truly fall apart into chaos. Massive protests occur throughout the Arab world.

Insurgent attacks and recruitment increase more than IOTL in Afghanistan.

The US finally begins all out military operations for regime change in Syria.

The Mid East, Pakistan, Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Latin America, and the US itself are engulfed in protests.

Russia and China voice outrage at the direct attack on one of their client states. The UN trembles with seeming irrelevance. US diplomatic relations with many parts of the world become heavily strained. Many US ambassadors are expelled from some countries.

After a month or two of fighting, Syria is occupied by the US (it has even fewer "coalition" partners this time) and Israel. Despite incredibly fierce fighting, Lebanon too finally falls to Israel with US support. By this time, Gaza and the West Bank are both under full Israeli occupation as well.

An "almost civil war" breaks out in Egypt. The Saudis become strained by the unrest in their Kingdom as do Jordan and many of the gulf states.

Al Qaeda and similar groups are overjoyed by the incredible surge in new recruits.

Youtube and other websites becomes somewhat censored by the DHS

Iranian intelligence services extend their tentacles deeper throughout the middle east.

Several high ranking US military officials resign in protest at the "needless" invasion of Syria on top of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and also in fear of an unthinkable fourth war in Iran that Dick Cheney begins to subtley promote on Sunday news shows.

US public support for Bush and the GOP plummets
 

Jason222

Banned
During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Syria which had been supplying Hezbollah with weaponry, intervened. President Bashar al-Assad considered Hezbollah an important asset. Now lets say that Assad was under heavy pressure from his close ally Iran, who considered Hezbollah's rocket arsenal a deterrent to an Israeli attack and feared its destruction, and let's also say Israel implemented an plan which was scrapped that included bombing two Syrian transport targets as part of its effort to choke off Hezbollah.

Israeli intelligence had detected Syria's buildup and imminent attack, so in the days preceding the attack, aircraft and ground forces were placed on high alert, and Israel increased its troops and armor.

During the Battle of Bint Jbeil in late July, the Syrians make their move. Armor and infantry attack the left flank of IDF brigades operating in South Lebanon. Mobile anti-aircraft units are included in the advance to counter the threat of air attack. At the same time, the Syrian Air Force deploys over Lebanon to counter the IAF. Syrian missiles are also fired at Israeli airbases and IDF forces positioned along the Lebanon border, and though Israel's Arrow missile defense system is formidable, I cannot rule out the possibility that at least some of them will hit. Although Syria's Soviet-era tanks are inferior to the Merkava, they vastly outnumber IDF armored forces. Syrian troops are inferior in equipment in training, but somewhat outnumber the IDF's combat brigades in Lebanon: numbers aren't all that significant because the IDF had detected the Syrian threat and reinforced its brigades. Syrian pilots are less trained than their Israeli counterparts, and most of their aircraft are inferior to the IAF, but their MiG-29s are still a formidable match to Israel's F-15s and F-16s. Syria decides to confine the war to Lebanon and thus does not go after Israeli population centers.

How does the rest of the war play out? Is there more international pressure for a ceasefire? How does Israel retaliate? And what will be the geopolitical implications of Syrian intervention?
Most likely Syria get beaten again by Israel. Israel military war machine lot better equipment and train then Syria. In practice one way fight. Also what Syria army fighting for in practice protect Lebanon while Israel army fighting to protect there homes.
 
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