Syagrius Trumps Clovis.

A single point to consider, friends. What if the Franks under Clovis I lost the Battle of Soissons to Syagrius and his Gallo-Romans in 486 A.D., the reverse of historical reality? What if they did not simply lose the battle, but lost it so thoroughly that Clovis and most of his senior commanders were killed in the fray? How long would the Roman rump state of Soissons persist following this victory?
 
I don't think the so-called demesne could last long : it was too divided, too threatened to survive on its own, save a collapse of its neighbours.

Not only Franks would still dominate Belgica (Clovis being only one of Frankish kings) and Germanica, but you already had several Franks in this region (descendents of laeti or from barbarians general of roman armies as Abrogast).
The militias and armies were composed of various peoples as such, and the division of the demesne among fifferent counts greatly helped Clovis OTL ( Arbogast, Syagrius, Paulus, etc.)

Adding to likely incursions from Franks, Thuringii, Alemani an Bretons are also to be considered.

Futhermore, the growing influence of Visigoth in Northern Gaul would be the last drop : alredy important OTL, and unchallenged ITTL, it could lead to its absorption (as Auvergne was) or at best, a visigothic overlordship.
Syagrii family was, after all, widespread in their kingdom, and part of their court.
 
I don't think the so-called demesne could last long : it was too divided, too threatened to survive on its own, save a collapse of its neighbours.

Not only Franks would still dominate Belgica (Clovis being only one of Frankish kings) and Germanica, but you already had several Franks in this region (descendents of laeti or from barbarians general of roman armies as Abrogast).
The militias and armies were composed of various peoples as such, and the division of the demesne among fifferent counts greatly helped Clovis OTL ( Arbogast, Syagrius, Paulus, etc.)

Adding to likely incursions from Franks, Thuringii, Alemani an Bretons are also to be considered.

Futhermore, the growing influence of Visigoth in Northern Gaul would be the last drop : alredy important OTL, and unchallenged ITTL, it could lead to its absorption (as Auvergne was) or at best, a visigothic overlordship.
Syagrii family was, after all, widespread in their kingdom, and part of their court.

The Franks don't exist in a vacuum though - such a defeat could well lead to a fragmentation and defeat of the Frankish realm at the hands of Saxons etc, as well as lead to increased centralization of the Gallo-Roman realm under Syagrius and his successors.

one idea I had long ago regarding this:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=215200
 
The Franks don't exist in a vacuum though - such a defeat could well lead to a fragmentation
They already were such before Clovis took on Syagrius, and it didn't prevent him to do so. Division doesn't mean estrangement : matrimonial alliances, common interests,etc.
So while, without Clovis's unification of frankish kingdoms, you may have a maintened half-confederation half-independent statelets, union is not to be dismissed (as the division-reunification process of OTL Regnum Francorum demonstrated)

and defeat of the Frankish realm at the hands of Saxons etc,
Continental Saxons weren't really of a threat before the VIth century (admittedly reinforced by the presence of a strong entity in Gaul that was actually threatening them)

as well as lead to increased centralization of the Gallo-Roman realm under Syagrius and his successors.
The tendency wasn't, at all, to centralisation but to division : lack of men, lack of unity, visigothic influence, played against it.
 
The tendency wasn't, at all, to centralisation but to division : lack of men, lack of unity, visigothic influence, played against it.

That may have been the tendency, but nothing says that tendency can't be turned around-a crushing victory over Clovis might be what Syagrius needs to be able to turn things around and start centralizing his state. It's not going to be easy, I'd say not even likely, but it's definitely plausible.

As an aside: I prefer to call them the Domain of Noviodunum, that being the Roman name for Soissons.
 
That may have been the tendency, but nothing says that tendency can't be turned around-a crushing victory over Clovis might be what Syagrius needs to be able to turn things around and start centralizing his state. It's not going to be easy, I'd say not even likely, but it's definitely plausible.

dictionnary said:
Plausible : Seemingly or apparently valid, likely, or acceptable; credible:

No, it's neither likely or plausible : Syagrius was in a real difficult postion, and would'nt have been able to use this victory as Franks did.

- His army was mainly composed of barbarians that, at the contrary of Clovis, wasn't personally tied to him

- Divided land : it seems that neither Arbogast or Paulus came to his help OTL, demonstrating the few authority he had, when Clovis managed to impose itself over other kingdoms.

- Disdain of urban gallo-roman urban elites (mostly clerical) for its alliance with, Arian, Visigoths.

- Visigothic presence would have prevented him to try to settle a more unified entity.

- Likely (as in plausible) raids from other Franks, Alemani, Thuringi, Bretons with less forces to face it than Franks had.

I stand my case : without catastrophic collapse of its neighbours, the demesne doesn't stand a real chance.

As an aside: I prefer to call them the Domain of Noviodunum, that being the Roman name for Soissons.

You can call it the demesne of Candyland, it wouldn't prevent the fact it's an historiographical name that was forged against a far less "brillant" reality : divided entity with blurry borders.

(And if we want to go pedantic, better use the real latin name, then in use : Augusta Suessionum, Novodunium being the celtic name transliterated in latin)
 
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