Swedish Empire

I'd say that it is possible...but not likely...for the Swedes to win at Poltava (though not totally destroy the Russian force like at Narva) if Karl can take direct command, and receive supplies from Mazepa to stabilize his logistics somewhat. However, he probably can't get better terms than status quo ante and thus doesn't solve the underlying threat of a modernizing Russian state.
 
I'd say that it is possible...but not likely...for the Swedes to win at Poltava (though not totally destroy the Russian force like at Narva) if Karl can take direct command, and receive supplies from Mazepa to stabilize his logistics somewhat. However, he probably can't get better terms than status quo ante and thus doesn't solve the underlying threat of a modernizing Russian state.

The problem isen't winning at Poltava, per say (Though again, it takes really long odds). The problem is winning in such a way that isen't entirely Pyhric. Karl is stranded far, far from home, with no way to regenerate his numbers or (really) gain supplies beyond local food, while waiting for them or trying to assemble an ad-hoc supply train is going to cut down his mobility drastically. The Russians, on the other hand, if they aren't completely broken are in a position to rebuild their forces and chase him down again... which means the Swedes will be fighting another major battle in another couple of months at even worse odds.
 
The supply situation could be stabilized with help from Mazepa, but not the manpower issue. I think that the Swedes might get away with offering Status Quo Ante--Pyotr will use it as a chance to rebuild, face the Ottomans, and remove Karl's Polish puppet--but ~15 yrs down the line the next GNW will pretty much doom Sweden unless they can by some miracle secure a European alliance (Austria?) and the Russo-Swedish wars become yet another theater of the Wars of the Austrian Succession, 7YW, etc. If somehow they can ally both Britain for subsidies (France, Sweden's traditional subsidizer, is losing its economic power by this point) and Austria to deflect Russian land ambitions they could hang on for quite a while...I'd imagine that Pyotr or his successors eventually get the site of St. Petersburg but Sweden keeps Estonia&Livonia and possibly is "compensated" with land in Karelia.

But IMO the only real victory for Sweden in the GNW is an invasion of Russia immediately after Narva preferably with the Tsar in Swedish custody or buried in Swedish soil as I discussed earlier. If this did happen Sweden would have to either become much more colonial than IOTL (I could see them allying with the British and inheriting much of the French Empire--or vice versa) or would have to massively industrialize early on and maintain a technological and economic advantage over the Russians (Is it fantasy to think that Ferguson-style breach-loaders might make their way into the elite units of the Swedish Army?). The most interesting timeline IMO is one where they renew their traditional French alliance following the reorganization of powers after the WotAS (mostly to oppose Prussia, now their main Baltic rival), and the combined French and Swedish fleets take naval supremacy from the British. Ultimately Sweden is given some of Britain's colonies after the TTL 7YW, incl. Prince Rupert's land, Newfoundland, some Indian trade ports, and some Caribbean islands. IDK where the 13 colonies end up; they're far too populated and far too British for them to become Swedish or French. Maybe a weird alternate universe where the British support the United States against the tyrannical French and their bloodthirsty Swedish mercenaries?
 
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There is a third option if the king of the swedish had gone with the orginal plan which was to re take the st peter burgs and the forts that connect it all the way up to mainland russia this would cut russia off from the baltic sea this would turn the war into a back and forth taht no one could gain a clear advantage
 
Sweden needs to gain a clear advantage to have any hope of keeping its empire. If nothing substantial changes momentum lies with Russia's growing population and ability to continue modernization until it matches the Swedes. A white peace in 1710 is the Second GNW lost in 1730.

The only way to escape this for the Swedes without is industrialization, but by the time that industrial output relieving substantial manpower for the front lines. However, steam engines and other fundamental technology are unlikely to make a major impact until the last decades of the century at best, and not until a century after the GNW is more likely. The Swedes need to beat the Russians (and the Poles, for that matter) to a degree that throws their political system into chaos and their continued development into disarray. The noble's republic makes this easy to do in P-L, but the Russian Tsardom with a strong leader is much harder to defeat in this way. Thus the best case scenario before, during, and after Narva IMO relies not only on the military advantage of a Swedish victory but the political unrest caused by Peter's capture or death.
 
Does Sweden have a chance to destabilize Russia and make it blow up into several smaller polities or is it asb

Destabilize Russia? Yes. The Streltsy certainly bore a grudge against the Czar after the 1698 revolt, and there were various nobles including members of the House of Romanov who might also challenge Pyotr after his actions in suppressing the regiments. The Cossacks (although only arguably part of Russia) in fact did revolt under Ivan Mazepa during the war, and of course there's the perennial possibility of a serf uprising. IOTL, Tsar Pyotr left Narva a few days before the Swedes attacked in 1700. Had he been present for the battle, there is a strong chance he would have been captured or even killed. The Tsarevitch was only ~10 at the time of the battle, and regency councils generally aren't good for stability. So yes, Russia could very well have been destabilized in the battle's aftermath especially if Pyotr had been captured and/or Karl had chosen to press into Russia after Narva rather than invade the PLC.

Split into smaller polities? Yes and no. Many of the border regions particularly in the South are only nominally Russian possessions or vassals anyway, and a strong Cossack Hetmanate and/or Crimean Khanate would likely have emerged following the war. However, Russia had been unified for centuries already, so there is little chance of it returning to the sprawling patchwork of smaller states that it was in the medieval and early renaissance periods.
 
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I think they would need russia focused on a threat somewhere else so they don't try to take sweden down agaoin maybe the momads to the easts
 
I think they would need russia focused on a threat somewhere else so they don't try to take sweden down agaoin maybe the momads to the easts

By 1700 the Steppe Khanates have lost their edge over settled populations, while their disadvantages in population and centralization as well as an economy hampered by the marginal terrain have take on sharp importance. Russia may be focused to conquering the region if the Swedes and Poles seem too hard nuts to crack, but given the need to establish a securable border between their enemies and the Russian core it's really hard to turn Russian focus in any direction other than west until Poland is rendered a non-threat
 
Well if we burn msocow down to the ground and kill peter the great or hold him hostage after the nerva we could see russia fall into civil war nad suucesion and then we could see the puppet state of lithuniana move into with sedish troops to occupy impromant location across the country
 
I'd say that it is possible...but not likely...for the Swedes to win at Poltava (though not totally destroy the Russian force like at Narva) if Karl can take direct command, and receive supplies from Mazepa to stabilize his logistics somewhat. However, he probably can't get better terms than status quo ante and thus doesn't solve the underlying threat of a modernizing Russian state.

Well if Peter the Great is captured in the Pruth Campaign...
 
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