Swedish complete control over the baltic sea

Hello and with this first post thanks for a amusing forum! If this question has been posted before I apologise. So to the what if!

Starting with Gustavus Adolphus and continued to the last years of Charles XII one major vision for sweden was to seize control over the entire baltic sea. This would mean not just gaining control over the oresund straits but complete control of all provinces and harbors sorrounding the baltic sea.

The question is what this would mean for sweden in terms of prestige, power projection and economy?

To answer the question I understand it´s important to know when this was done and at it´s best I can see it happend around 1700. The way to this scenario would be the destruction of denmark after a succesful storming of copenhagen in 1658 followed by a series of wars to gain territories in northern germany. A surviving Gustavus Adolphus would also help gaining more german territory then in OTL. The great northern war would in my opinion still appear sometime around 1700 where Sweden would be victorious securing the last provinces sorrounding the baltifc sea.

Now what would this mean to Sweden as of the question earlier asked? And could such a Sweden manage to survive or would it just be a time before the neighbours teamed up for a baltic gangbang on sweden? :)

Any thoughts?
 

Philip

Donor
Welcome to AH.com

The great northern war would in my opinion still appear sometime around 1700 where Sweden would be victorious securing the last provinces sorrounding the baltifc sea.

The Great Northern War does offer the best chance for this. If Charles XII had stopped to consolidate his early successes rather pushing on, Sweden could come out much better off.

Now what would this mean to Sweden as of the question earlier asked? And could such a Sweden manage to survive or would it just be a time before the neighbours teamed up for a baltic gangbang on sweden? :)

The rise of Prussia would be a problem or could be averted. Russian desire for Baltic access will definitely be a challenge. British desire for Russian markets could also cause conflict. Maybe an Anglo-Russian alliance to break Swedish control of the Baltic?

I don't think that Poland(-Lithuania) would a problem. Sweden could probably work out a division of Poland with other nearby powers.
 
Johnniecash

The big problem with this scenario is that as well as its Baltic neighbours Sweden, or any other state that approaches Baltic control, has to face opposition from the other maritime powers. Not only was there important grain markets from the Baltic coast and the herring of the region. Most importantly the region was the source of virtually all the large timber needed for the ships of the period. Hence Britain and the Netherlands especially would seek to prevent anyone getting total control of the region.

As such Sweden, or anyone else, would have to be very, very skilled and lucky to gain control of the entire region. It might just be possible if say the bulk of it was obtained while the western powers, say a Sweden on steroids while the War of the Spanish Succession occupies everybody else. However notice that OTL, as soon as that was over several other powers, noticeably Prussia and Hanover joined in the war against Sweden.

Steve

PS Welcome to the forum and hope you enjoy the debates.
 

Hnau

Banned
Alright, the Netherlands takes Cromwell's offer and joins a new Anglo-Dutch Commonwealth. They do this due to the need to oppose the tyrannical Prince of Orange.

By 1658, there is no Dutch fleet to save Denmark from Swedish armies: Cromwell is concerned with other things and actually feels that a stronger Sweden would be useful in his power-plays.

Sweden takes over all of Norway, Denmark, and Danish colonies. Come the Great Northern War, it takes over the Baltic provinces. Kinda cool.
 
Johnniecash

The big problem with this scenario is that as well as its Baltic neighbours Sweden, or any other state that approaches Baltic control, has to face opposition from the other maritime powers. Not only was there important grain markets from the Baltic coast and the herring of the region. Most importantly the region was the source of virtually all the large timber needed for the ships of the period. Hence Britain and the Netherlands especially would seek to prevent anyone getting total control of the region.

As such Sweden, or anyone else, would have to be very, very skilled and lucky to gain control of the entire region. It might just be possible if say the bulk of it was obtained while the western powers, say a Sweden on steroids while the War of the Spanish Succession occupies everybody else. However notice that OTL, as soon as that was over several other powers, noticeably Prussia and Hanover joined in the war against Sweden.

Steve

Thanks Steve, been around for a while but decided now was the time to strike :)

As far as I can see oppossing the powers located around the baltic would´t bei an overwhelming problem. It should not be forgotten that with the baltic in your own hands you got yourself an 18th century highway ready to transport troops to whereever they were needed in no time while strong coastal fortresses hold off the invading forces. And as seen in OTL Sweden in the beginning managed to oppose 4 invading forces, so I don´t see how they should´t be able to do that with even more land and weaker enemies around them.

You raise a good point however of how the British and Dutch would react on such a timber monopoly. But don´t forget here that sweden would be in full control of the öresund straits providing a though obstacle for any outside force to go through, if not impossible with the proper installations on those islands. We might see an occupation of Jutland but closer then that is hard for any power to get. And an invasion of Norway or Sweden itself would sure be some risky business.

Instead I see it as more plausible, especially if you let Cromwell survive for a lot more years, that good diplomatic relations would mean British access to the baltic market for good relations or even an alliance.

The main problem would instead be a growing prussia but with the seaprovinces hold by sweden their capabilities are severe hampered.

But all in all I´m ready to admit it´s a thin line for Sweden to walk on with a constant threat of invasion on their "foreign" provinces, not to talk about what happens when nationalism kicks in in the 19th century.
 

Susano

Banned
IMO, Sweden was in a bad geopolitical position. Russia, Denmark and Brandenburg-Prussia all wanted part of it, a sit turned IOTL, the latter did not initially take part in the anti-swedish alliance, but the former two and Poland did... Ah, dont have time to write more atm...
 
A surviving Gustavus Adolphus would:
1) enforce the arrange marige betwene Christina and one of Christian IV sons ( I don't remeber wich but he died in a cavalary charge in the 30yers war) if the said prince would survive. If the prince dies arange a marige to his cousins son Wladyslav IV Vasa to secure the border or bring the polish-lithuaninan in to the 30-year war on the swedish side.

2) Rein in Oxensteirnas expansion of the swedish nobility and probleby keep Christina from converting to chatolism.

3) larger parts of the northen germanies would be directly anexed by the sewedish king and render the brandenburg-preusan embreyo dead in the woomb.

4) butterfly away christina leaving sweden and the Charles X Gustav to take the crown in 1654.

5) probleby spure Wladyslaw IV Vasa to join the war on either side when sigismund III Vasa die in october 1632 (in the midle of the 30 eyar war). Either by promising Christina (if here betroth danish princ is dead) to his hand in strong contest whit cicilia renata or over him chosing to mary to a habsburg.

My best bet to baltic control is a bigger landgrab in the geramnies defusing brandenburg-preusen and a strategic personal union sweden-denmark by marige of a sole surviving danish prinse. Thus leving danish-swedish control of the sound. A short war against Wladyslaw to split lithuania and polen from each other (and instal other kings in these new kingdoms) and grab the coastal areas and then a frotification period during his later eyars to consolidate the gains.
 
A surviving Gustavus Adolphus would:
1) enforce the arrange marige betwene Christina and one of Christian IV sons ( I don't remeber wich but he died in a cavalary charge in the 30yers war) if the said prince would survive. If the prince dies arange a marige to his cousins son Wladyslav IV Vasa to secure the border or bring the polish-lithuaninan in to the 30-year war on the swedish side.

2) Rein in Oxensteirnas expansion of the swedish nobility and probleby keep Christina from converting to chatolism.

3) larger parts of the northen germanies would be directly anexed by the sewedish king and render the brandenburg-preusan embreyo dead in the woomb.

4) butterfly away christina leaving sweden and the Charles X Gustav to take the crown in 1654.

5) probleby spure Wladyslaw IV Vasa to join the war on either side when sigismund III Vasa die in october 1632 (in the midle of the 30 eyar war). Either by promising Christina (if here betroth danish princ is dead) to his hand in strong contest whit cicilia renata or over him chosing to mary to a habsburg.

My best bet to baltic control is a bigger landgrab in the geramnies defusing brandenburg-preusen and a strategic personal union sweden-denmark by marige of a sole surviving danish prinse. Thus leving danish-swedish control of the sound. A short war against Wladyslaw to split lithuania and polen from each other (and instal other kings in these new kingdoms) and grab the coastal areas and then a frotification period during his later eyars to consolidate the gains.

Christina was to be married to Christian IV third son Ulrich who died/was murdered being in Swedish service in Germany.
He is said to have been the best of the three legitimate sons of Christian - surely The chosen Prince was a disaster and died before his father, Frederick just managed to get the throne and Ulrich died.

A close alliance in some sort of Denmark - Norway/Sweden would be in the interest of both nations, but they didn't, Denmark - Norway at least not realize this or rather want to realize this and any effort towards joint action was less than half hearted.
 
Christina was to be married to Christian IV third son Ulrich who died/was murdered being in Swedish service in Germany.
He is said to have been the best of the three legitimate sons of Christian - surely The chosen Prince was a disaster and died before his father, Frederick just managed to get the throne and Ulrich died.

A close alliance in some sort of Denmark - Norway/Sweden would be in the interest of both nations, but they didn't, Denmark - Norway at least not realize this or rather want to realize this and any effort towards joint action was less than half hearted.

[FONT=&quot]Ah Ulrich, I have to look him up in the University library.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Closer ties would be great but both England and Netherlands opposed closer ties between Denmark and Sweden. The sound due Denmark could collect made trade whit the grain rich Baltic expensive and if Sweden could break the control of the sound there would be bigger profits to be made. Also almost all the timber to the fleets came from Norway and Sweden and if both were controlled by the same king there could be a serious shortage of material to warships.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]There might be a way to POD closer ties real early of the 17th century:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
Avoid the Kalmar War 1611-1613 by letting [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Charles IX died early in 1611 and have Gustav II Adolf settle the dispute whit Christian IV about the land route through Lapland Sweden constructed in response to the sound due. Maybe a “treaty of Kalmar” instead of a “Kalmar war” that made Denmark comes in to the Polish–Swedish Wars of 1600-1611 and 1617-1618. The “saved” money on avoiding war and the troops spared could be used by Sweden to wage a more decisive war (or defense) against Poland, maybe a triplet alliance against the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth by Denmark, Sweden and Russia to split the Commonwealth during 1611-1617. Maybe that could butterfly an early start to the 30-years war by escalating Austrian aid dragging in Bohemia in the war and have a protestant revolt in Bohemia against both higher war taxes combined whit religious oppression igniting the Germanys in religious war.


[/FONT]
 
I forgot that Russia had the “Time of Troubles” 1598-1613 whit Sweden waging “the Ingrian War” 1610-1617 against Russia. One of Charles IX aims were to concur Novgorod and make it part of Sweden and place his second son Carl Philp or even his first son Gustav Adolf on the throne of Russia (instead the Romanovs were elected).
 
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