Sweden wins Great Northern War

mattep74

Well, the question is what happens to Poland in this TL. Swedish ally? Major power instead of Russia?

The loosing of the superpowerstatus for Sweden was a good thing, the population became bigger and we became not so wery poor, just a little until 1860
 

arctic warrior

"Charles V of Denmark" - seriously!!!

As long as the war is taking place in the east things can go Swedens way but when Charles XII turns on Denmark-Norway or rather Denmark Britain and the Netherlands with their dependence on trade with the Baltic to secure raw materiels for their navies will focus on this Scandinavian upstart and punch him down! ;)
 

Saepe Fidelis

I think that by the battle of Poltava we're running a bit thin on options for harles XII-he's stuck deep inside Ukraine and has already endured one savage winter. If, on the other hand, Peter is killed at Narva or a relatively early battle, then Sewden hasn't yet lost Linonia or Ingria, and Charles still has a lot of momentum. If he can smash a few more Russian forces and then see Russia descend into anarchy for a few years while a new Tsar is sorted out (probably a Boyar, given Peter wasn't too popular then and had not mature heir) then Sweden can force Denmark into a peace treaty before Britain gets too involved-maybe getting Malmo and bits of Norway, but otherwise status quo pre bellum.
Poland would probably become a bone of contention between Austria, Sweden and France. Prussia isn't going to become as strong because it an't play everyone off against the Russians, although it could mean that Frederick (or ananalogue) is more successful as he doesn't have to worry about Russia steamrolling him. However, given Prussia's rise was very unlikely anyway, its success was unlikely to be repeated.

Most likely, I'd say that Sweden would back the Sexon Kings, so long as they can hold onto Pomerania and maybe get Danzig through some diplomatic wrangling. They can easily apply pressure on the Saxons and can use them as a proxy against the Austrians. Of course, without the Rusians then there's likely no partition of Poland, and it survives as a puppet state for the Swedish/Austrians/French depending on who's in vogue.
 

stevep

Guys

I would agree with Saepe Fidelis that Poltava at the latest is the way and preferably before. If instead of Poland Charles seeks to finish off Peter after Narva or he is killed there. Something which sees Peter killed or overthrown and a period of disorder taking Russia out of play for a decade at least so Sweden can secure it's position with Saxony and Denmark.

Possibly need to change Charles somewhat as he seems rather megalomaniac and if he did get that successful I feel he would push too far and get other powers worried about Sweden. If nothing else a limited but quick win to avoid draining Sweden's still fairly limited resources too much. That could probably be the key POD, something which makes Charles a better king who realises both his and Sweden's limitations and that Peter was the main threat. He could then remove the Saxon's from Poland and get a friendly king there with his rear secured and end the war say ~1708 time with all enemies defeated, relatively minor territorial gains and peace to develop things. Possibly the occasional intervention in Russia, rather political than military, to keep it divided and less aggressive.

Steve
 

von Adler

Denmark: Left the alliance and made peace 1700. Re-entered after Polatava.
Poland: Offered peace after Düna 1701 and the Swedish occupation of Courland. If Karl XII could accept August on the Polish throne, this is a very good peace. Sweden continues to control Courland as a guarantee of the peace, perhaps even annexes it later.
Russia: Now alone, with its army crushed at Narva 1700 and thus no modern forces to throw at the Swedes. A dire situation. What about the Ottoman Empire and especially the Crimean Tatars? The sitation can become very hairy for Peter very quickly.
 

Saepe Fidelis

stevep said:
Possibly need to change Charles somewhat as he seems rather megalomaniac and if he did get that successful I feel he would push too far and get other powers worried about Sweden. If nothing else a limited but quick win to avoid draining Sweden's still fairly limited resources too much. That could probably be the key POD, something which makes Charles a better king who realises both his and Sweden's limitations and that Peter was the main threat. He could then remove the Saxon's from Poland and get a friendly king there with his rear secured and end the war say ~1708 time with all enemies defeated, relatively minor territorial gains and peace to develop things. Possibly the occasional intervention in Russia, rather political than military, to keep it divided and less aggressive.

Steve
Click to expand...

I agree; Charles was similar to Peter himself, except Peter had an enormous empire to back up his megalomania-Charles had, well, Sweden.
 

arctic warrior

Saepe Fidelis said:
Sweden ...getting Malmo and bits of Norway, but otherwise status quo pre bellum.
Click to expand...

They actually had it since 1660! ;)

@von Adler:
Actually Denmark-Norway and Saxony negotiated with Prussia at the time of Poltava to secure their backs against Swedish retaliation before opening hostilities; which they were going to anyway now Charles had vanished into Russia.
It wasn't Poltava (alone) that got them back into the fray.
 

von Adler

No, not alone, but if Sweden has only been at war with Russia, and whipping it thoroughly, I am not sure Denmark, Hannover and Prussia would dare enter the war. They may enter the war again, but without Poland and Russia having soaked up Swedish manpower, I do not think they would do so easily.
 

arctic warrior

von Adler said:
No, not alone, but if Sweden has only been at war with Russia, and whipping it thoroughly, I am not sure Denmark, Hannover and Prussia would dare enter the war. They may enter the war again, but without Poland and Russia having soaked up Swedish manpower, I do not think they would do so easily.
Click to expand...

Okay - to make it clear. Negotiations were brought to a satisfatorily end at the time of Poltava - due to time for news to reach the recipients.
Denmark and Saxony had pre-news of the result of Poltava decided to go to war and secured their back by Prussia promising to block Swedish operations!

Of course news of the outcome would most probably dampen any offensive spirit in those countries.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top