Sweden retakes Finland during Crimea

What if Sweden had joined the Crimean War and retaken Finland?

Sweden does not have the force for it nor experienced military. Russia has reserves to defend Finland. The only advantage Sweden has is a more modern force than the Russian one.

Without British and/or French help Sweden will not retake Finland.
 
I doubt that the Swedish could keep Finland for more than a few years even if they managed to conquer it. This is because it would Put Saint Petersburg under threat of land attack.
 
Sweden would be probably mostly interested in the Åland Islands. That's also relatively achievable, at least in a military sense, especially with the Royal Navy cruising around the Baltic Sea. Operations in Continental Finland would be much more challenging. Finland is one of the main defence perimeters aound the St. Petersburg so if there was a Swedish troops moving around there, Russia would respond to that.

However, if Sweden somehow retakes Finland, there would be many political challenges during the post-war period. Finns had already get used to their status as an autonomous Grand Duchy and would prefer for that state of affairs to continue. Many Finns were loyal towards the Emperor at the time, so if things start to go worse, people would very quickly start to make comparisons towards the time they were under the Russian rule.
 
Sweden was interested in joining the Crimean war, but was making a diplomatic effort to have Prussia and Austria join too - Sweden knew that winning the Crimean War would just be the start - 10-20 years later the Russians would be back. Thus a wider pact to push Russia back was needed - a Swedo-Prussian-Austrian-Ottoman anti-Russian alliance could work. Going at it alone against Russia would not. The Russo-Turkish war of 1877 shows that this sentiment was pretty much spot on.

The Russians made peace before Prussia and Austria could be enticed into war. If the war lasts longer and the Tsar (either Nicholai I living longer or Alexander II being as stubborn) refuses to budge, it might happen.

The question is, can Sweden hold it? And what is the reaction of the Finns? They got a very good deal before Russofication in the 1880s. The elites had vast career prospects in the Imperial Russian administration, navy and army, the locals were mostly left alone and had their own estates parliament to rule them.

If Sweden allows the Finnish estates parliament to continue, most of the Finns will be happy. Most of the elites will not.
 
Sweden was interested in joining the Crimean war, but was making a diplomatic effort to have Prussia and Austria join too - Sweden knew that winning the Crimean War would just be the start - 10-20 years later the Russians would be back. Thus a wider pact to push Russia back was needed - a Swedo-Prussian-Austrian-Ottoman anti-Russian alliance could work. Going at it alone against Russia would not. The Russo-Turkish war of 1877 shows that this sentiment was pretty much spot on.

The Russians made peace before Prussia and Austria could be enticed into war. If the war lasts longer and the Tsar (either Nicholai I living longer or Alexander II being as stubborn) refuses to budge, it might happen.

The question is, can Sweden hold it? And what is the reaction of the Finns? They got a very good deal before Russofication in the 1880s. The elites had vast career prospects in the Imperial Russian administration, navy and army, the locals were mostly left alone and had their own estates parliament to rule them.

If Sweden allows the Finnish estates parliament to continue, most of the Finns will be happy. Most of the elites will not.

The Ottomans could actually have won the war of 1877-1878. The problem with Sweden is they have a lower population therefore less manpower against the Russian Bear. It was even less that the Ottomans. The low manmpower in combination with the Finns desiring the czar over the Swedes.

Unless there is a guarantee from the British that prptects the Swedish conquest, Russia will return.
 
The Ottomans could actually have won the war of 1877-1878. The problem with Sweden is they have a lower population therefore less manpower against the Russian Bear. It was even less that the Ottomans. The low manmpower in combination with the Finns desiring the czar over the Swedes.

Unless there is a guarantee from the British that prptects the Swedish conquest, Russia will return.


The Finnish elites preferred the Czar (much better career prospects), the regular population enjoyed their autonomy and not living in a battleground. If Sweden could provide the same autonomy and peace (which it had not been able to do during the 18th century), the regular Finns should not be too unhappy.
 

yourworstnightmare

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At some point they may. But in the immediate aftermath of the conflict there's no question that being under Swedish rule is more advantageous than Russian.
Finland during the Crimean war is a very different Finland than the Finland Sweden lost in 1809. It's a Finland that has existed as a semi autonomous Grand Duchy for over 40 years, and really doesn't have much interest in becoming integrated in Sweden again.
 
Operations in Continental Finland would be much more challenging. Finland is one of the main defence perimeters aound the St. Petersburg so if there was a Swedish troops moving around there, Russia would respond to that.

That's the main issue. Russia needs to control the Gulf of Finland to defend its capital. If the Swedes with British help manage to occupy Finland they'll most certainly march on St. Petersburg and then we'd have a VERY different Crimean War.
 
At some point they may. But in the immediate aftermath of the conflict there's no question that being under Swedish rule is more advantageous than Russian.

It is in fact definitely questionable if being under Swedish rule would be more advantageous for the Finns than being under Russian rule. In the short term, Finland becoming a battleground for several years would certainly be a change for the worse in comparison to the OTL. And then after the recovery starts... Could the Swedish provide the same benefits as Russia did for the Finnish Grand Duchy, some of which von Adler has detailed above? Could Swedish rule ITTL guarantee peace and increasing prosperity in Finland, until as far as 1914, like being a part of the Russian empire did IOTL? It is not at all obvious that the answers to these questions would be positive.
 

Orry

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When this has come upo before variouse people have argued that Stronk Russia will smash the swedes without in anyway reducing the forces deployed against the Anglo French. Then they will send the many forces no longer needed to face the Swedes and smash the Anglo French and then capture the Dardanells and then the world.......


(That might be a slight exageration but I have seen it argued a number of times that the Swedes joining the war only helps Russia....)
 
When this has come upo before variouse people have argued that Stronk Russia will smash the swedes without in anyway reducing the forces deployed against the Anglo French. Then they will send the many forces no longer needed to face the Swedes and smash the Anglo French and then capture the Dardanells and then the world.......


(That might be a slight exageration but I have seen it argued a number of times that the Swedes joining the war only helps Russia....)
That's nothing. I've read here that Austria and Prussia joining would win the war for Russia. Russia stronk!
 
That's nothing. I've read here that Austria and Prussia joining would win the war for Russia. Russia stronk!
It's the law of conversation of ninjitsu. A single foe who has to fight many enemies becomes strong enough to defeat each of them until only one is left, then the odds revert to even again for the final duel.
 
What would Austria and Prussia get out of declaring war on Russia? Would they just want the polish territory they lost at the Congress of Vienna?
 
1850s Sweden already had autonomous Norway. Would they have objected to autonomy like what Finland had under Russia?
(That would not have dealt with limited career prospects in small Swedish military, or threat of Russian reconquest.)
 
The question is, can Sweden hold it? And what is the reaction of the Finns? They got a very good deal before Russofication in the 1880s. The elites had vast career prospects in the Imperial Russian administration, navy and army, the locals were mostly left alone and had their own estates parliament to rule them.

If Sweden allows the Finnish estates parliament to continue, most of the Finns will be happy. Most of the elites will not.

Politically it would be probably most advantegous for Sweden to try to keep things in Finland as similar as possible. Make the Swedish king the grand duke, or even the king of Finland. The Finnish Diet could even meet and give the title and the king could assure Finns that he respects their autonomy and says maybe some nice things about nations' shared history. The 1850's are still relatively easy period to annex Finland, as the Finnish nationalism was still forming and hadn't spread to the extent it would(/will) during following decades. This doesn't mean though that there won't be problems in future though. Sweden can handle the issue much worse too.

Plus Baltics and maybe even Ukraine.

Would so large territorial changes go trough in a peace conference? The Russian Empire losing so much of its western territories would have significant effects on the balance of power, not all which would be necessarily beneficial for all great powers. This could have even effects on the Swedish annexation of Finland.
 
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