Sweden Joins the CP

NoMommsen

Donor
Dear @FillyofDelphi , thx for your elaborate answer.

First about the finnish populace.
I have to apologize, as my notion seems to be over- or wrongly interpreted. I didn't mean, that the finn would "flock" towards the swedish troops and start an uprising against tsarist rule (at least not that early) or even support the swedish troops with food, lodging, etc..
Would be enough not to hinder what swedish troops might appear.

Then the harbor-problem.
At the eastern end of the Alands and the assumed "island-hopping" over rather shallow waters is the city of Turku ... and its harbour. Maybe not as big as Helsingfors at that time.
But such a "big", "major" port is not needed. Any harbor would suffice and be of help given the scale of amphibious operations in World War 1 (pls do NOT compare them with what was done and needed in World War 2, totally different beasts). I may remember, that the germans mastered landing a large, reinforced division in 1917 against a defending enemy without any harbor-facilities at all.
And ... as Turku was up to the 1st half of the 19th century THE major city (only after a large fire Helsinki/Helsingfors became the finnish "main hub"), the triangle of Turku-Helsinki-Tampere was rather well developed regarding i.e. traffic.

The russian baltic fleet
In 1914 a bunch of almost completly outdated pre-dreads. The modern, " superior" units of the Gangut-class were commissioned from 30.November 1914 onwards, becomming operational only in/after spring 1915. With a swedish landing going on and the russian fleet to be expected to probably/possibly trying to interfere, I would bet, that the germans would set up a ... "guarding force" at the mouth of finland to capture whatever might try to come out of it in terms of russian warships. ... "THE" opportunity Prince Heinrich and the german, marine in the baltics would almost pray for.
Or the russians might react as IOTL and draw back whatever force there is to protect precious Kronstadt and with it even more precious Petrograd. What would give the swedes a rather easyjob in sending ever more troops and support via as mentioned Turku or perhaps even Hanko

Russian troops
At the beginning the "finnish" XXII. russian army corps of St.Petersburg military district was hold back :
... to protect St.Petersburg ...
... as well as for "domesctic" finnish reasons ...
This however changed rather quickly with Tannenberg and the XXII. Corps was rushed south to inforce/reinforced northwest-front 9th, then 10th army against further german advances from East-Prussia.

Alraedy having the russian to have to decide where to deploy XXII. Corps ITTL helps the CP cause a lot, with its subsequent changes in shifting forces around the whole russian front. Whatever swedish forces might there be somewher in southern Finland :
they would act as landbased equivalent to a "fleet-in-being" ITTL.
 

Just a quick comment on this: what you are forgetting is that the Archipelago Sea is an area that heavily favors the defender. If the Swedish take the Ålands, the Russians would immediately start to mine the narrow approaches towards Turku. They were rather efficient in this, and Turku was used as a base for torpedo boats and minelayers. So, when the Swedish eventually would approach Turku through the archipelago, they would not only be suspectible to losing ships to Russian mines, they would also probably face Russian torpedo boats and even some submarines attacking from between the multitude of islands. There is also the problem that the Swedish do not know the passages and inlets between the islands as well as Russians, and are likely to lose ships due to groundings, etc.

Personally, if I had to plan a Swedish invasion of Finland, I would not go anywhere near Turku but would land troops on the Ostrobothnian coast, maybe in the area between Kokkola and Vaasa (staging the invasion out from the Umeå area) and prepare for a drive south from there. There are several useful ports in the area, and you'd be able to cut/capture a part of a north-south railway as soon as you land. There would also be much less risks involved in that area in terms of Russian naval intervention and geographic issues than in the Turku area.

What would be better, though, would be no landings at all in 1914-1915, just creating conditions where the Russians feel/fear there is a realistic threat of such and are thus forced to bring more troops to Finland. Have the Swedish Navy act seemingly aggressively (without risking real losses) and release rumours of invasion forces being assembled. Start fomenting rebellion in Finland and smuggle weapons to the Finnish coast. Let the Germans do the heavy lifting. You can move on Finland when the Russian Empire starts unraveling in 1916-1917, with the support of Finnish nationalist groups you have helped to create. At that point, there will be no functional Russian fleet to stop your invasion anymore.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
THX for your educated comment, @DrakonFin :)

Your preferred proposal would also still have for the CP the "fleet-in-being" effect for the diversion of russian troops from other theatres.

What would you think of the region just "slightly" more north of Turku ? Rauma and Pori ?
 
THX for your educated comment, @DrakonFin :)

Your preferred proposal would also still have for the CP the "fleet-in-being" effect for the diversion of russian troops from other theatres.

What would you think of the region just "slightly" more north of Turku ? Rauma and Pori ?

I suggested the Vaasa area due to both the distance to Russian naval bases and the sea being the narrowest there, only 80 km from mainland to mainland. The area between Pori and Rauma would be better for a landing than the Turku area, but there is also a higher chance of Russian ships appearing in the area, in comparison to coastal areas due north, and the distance from the Swedish coast is at least over twice that than it is near Vaasa.

If Sweden is in the war since 1914, it is conceivable that by 1915 the Russians would have seaplanes flying recon flights out of the Rauma and Pori areas (IOTL this was realized only in 1917) and thus could notice an invasion here a lot earlier than in the Vaasa area.
 
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