Deleted member 1487
How can a country made up of Sweden and Finland survive until the modern day and what effects would this have on Europe?
I Blame Communism
Banned
I'm going to have to call insufficient data on this one. My first thought would be to fiddle with the Great French War enough to avoid the Ruskies collaring Finland, then make keeping Finland in Swedish hands part of the *Great Game. A likely consequence of that is that "Old Finland" (about the area of Stalin's annexation) will stay seperate, at least for now, and perhaps be Russianised early.
But there are loads of potential PoDs. Its impossible to make any definate statement about the state of Europe. Butterflies, butterflies. We need a clear PoD first.
Let Sweden cave in to the french demands of joining the Continental blockade of Great Britain, thereby avoiding the Russian invasion and conquest of Finland. Then after 1812 and Napoleons invasion of Russia, switch side (or rather - join the Anglo-Russian side). It should do the trick, at least in the short run.
Consequences: If Sweden can avoid further wars with Russia (fairly belivable, since the Vienna conference kept the peace until Russia started its drive to the south) nothing would happen until maybe finnish nationalism against Sweden started. Or if Sweden began a soft "swedinisation" of Finland with more Swedish-speaking schools and so on.
Scandinavism ("all scandinavians have a lot in common and should cooperate") would not appear, or be far weaker, since the loss of Finland was a strong factor for Swedes to join this movement.
IOTL Norway declared its independence from Denmark just to be conquered by Sweden as compensation for the loss of Finland. ITTL it may not happen, and Norway become independent around 1810-15. That would mean a lot to Norway, but not to the rest of the world (since Norway was fairly independent as a part of Sweden - large trading fleet and so on).
In a longer perspective it becomes difficult to predict. Sweden-Finland would be far stronger than only Sweden, but the danger is that someone gets the great idea to start a new war with Russia, join Denmark against Preussia 1864 or some other stupid foreign adventure. Sweden-Finland is still a third rate power with possible delusions.
Probably S-F would sit out WW1 and WW2. S-F could be so big that Soviet never made any demands in 1939 (or that the Russians got Karelia around 1815), thereby preventing the Winter War.
A Sweden-Finland 2009 would be far bigger in the wood-paper market and probably feed large parts of the EU with electricity.
Consequences: If Sweden can avoid further wars with Russia (fairly belivable, since the Vienna conference kept the peace until Russia started its drive to the south) nothing would happen until maybe finnish nationalism against Sweden started. Or if Sweden began a soft "swedinisation" of Finland with more Swedish-speaking schools and so on.
Scandinavism ("all scandinavians have a lot in common and should cooperate") would not appear, or be far weaker, since the loss of Finland was a strong factor for Swedes to join this movement.
IOTL Norway declared its independence from Denmark just to be conquered by Sweden as compensation for the loss of Finland. ITTL it may not happen, and Norway become independent around 1810-15. That would mean a lot to Norway, but not to the rest of the world (since Norway was fairly independent as a part of Sweden - large trading fleet and so on).
In a longer perspective it becomes difficult to predict. Sweden-Finland would be far stronger than only Sweden, but the danger is that someone gets the great idea to start a new war with Russia, join Denmark against Preussia 1864 or some other stupid foreign adventure. Sweden-Finland is still a third rate power with possible delusions.
Probably S-F would sit out WW1 and WW2. S-F could be so big that Soviet never made any demands in 1939 (or that the Russians got Karelia around 1815), thereby preventing the Winter War.
A Sweden-Finland 2009 would be far bigger in the wood-paper market and probably feed large parts of the EU with electricity.
If Sweden-Finland joins the blockade it makes for no dismemberment of Denmark-Norway at 1814 Peace of Kiel.
I would believe that the Norwegian independence movement would grow in the years following 1815 (if thats be the final of Napoleon) to demand more home rule and get it 1830 or at least 1848. Perhaps that year is going to be the end of the Dual-Monarchy.
At the latest the Dual-Monarchy would dissolve post 1864 because of Norway no longer wanting to take part in Danish German policies.
If the Dual-Monarchy stay together till 1864 the 1848-50 war will be much shorter due to a larger manpower pool for Denmark-Norway and much more artillery due to accessibility of iron.
Denmark just might avoid the London agreement of 1850-1 and have Slesvig and Holstein separated so as to keep Slesvig as an integral part of the Kingdom of Denmark. But with strong guarantees of the German population.
No Scandinavism won't be a problem as Denmark-Norway have much more resources and the Swedish brigade in Fyn 1848 not needed.
But the language problem will be less TTL as the Dual-Monarchy will still be a conglomerate of different peoples and languages spoken!
That should ease the incoporation of the German population of Slesvig.
1864, if that goes off on time, will only centre on Holstein and its affiliation with the German Confederation, but there won't probably be a 1864 due to Slesvig being separated from Holstein and thus a different peace of say 1849!
If Norway and Denmark doesn't separate at least Norway will get its own National Bank, University etc. and close to independence in legislation.
The Crimean War would still see no Danish-Norwegian participation due to the succession issue of Holstein (and Denmark-Norway) in which the Tsar had a major stake.
IF the King of Denmark (and perhaps Norway) is still Duke of Holstein, things would get really interesting in 1914!
But probably the succession issue would include a German demand of the future King of Denmark-(Norway) to resign the Duchy of Holstein.
In this case Denmark-(Norway) sits out WWI as neutrals much as per OTL, but it might have a much more active role in trying to mediate the War!
The West Indies just might not be sold off to the US!
Come WWII with no Winter War there would be no Allied plans to take the war into Scandinavia (oh there might be plans but hardly excuses) and thus no German counter-invasion/occupation of Denmark and Norway.
Instead we'd see a lot of Nazi terrorism in Denmark and agitation about Slesvig to return to the Reich! That would give the Danish police a lot of work and make for a stronger Nazi party in Denmark than OTL.
At this time the German decendants living in Denmark should be indestinguishable from other Danes in language and culture due to the absent language problem of the mid-19 century - but Hitler may have a go at Slesvig anyway and perhaps annex it in 1940.
And then there be an excuse for the Allies to intervene in some way but Norway could be kept out of the war as Sweden-Finland.
Post WWII Denmark would be given back Slesvig. This would make for an economically stronger Denmark even if the Germans consider Slesvig-Holstein something of a backwater.
Finland staying a part Sweden after 1809 breeds a whole bunch of butterflies in both Sweden and Russia and that makes the later developments quite unpredictable. It would be safe to predict that at least by 1900, if the World Wars come about, they will manifest in a much altered form.
IOTL the loss of Finland made Sweden finally abandon the delusions of great-powerdom and without this happening, ITTL the Swedish leaders will be hard pressed to conduct pragmatic enough foreign policy as regards to Russia to keep the nation intact. Even so, Russia will have to stay exceptionally weak not to try to exploit an opening to grab Finland sometime during the 19th or the 20th century.
If Sweden(-Finland) can keep its integrity, it will become a minor trade power by 1900. If in alliance with Norway, it could be gobble a sizable chunk of European maritime trade.
Finnish development, however, will be retarded as compared to OTL because the Russian trade is not channeled north but passes the Baltic areas instead. This means slower indutrialisation for Finland, which is comparatively more used as a source of raw materials. In Sweden proper, the industry will probably benefit from this growing faster than OTL. Finland will be on a shorter leash and never manages the independent economic and organisational development characteristic of the Grand Duchy.
Finnish nationalism, too, will be slowed down and the language retains a second place for longer. In the end, Finnish national identity, as is ITTL, will be created in opposition to Swedes instead of Russians, and this creates a possibly volatile situation.
For many ways, economically and culturally, the ethnic Finns will be seen as mere country bumpkins and an "inferior" people by some of the the "rikssvenska". Especially in the late 19th and early 20th centuries this might manifest itself as overtly colonialistic attitudes by parts of the Swedish elite. If we look at the OTL development, the Finnic minorities in Sweden have received much less rights and have been at times downright repressed in comparison to the strong position the Swedish-speakers enjoy in Finland. I could see "swedinisation" growing to look more than "soft", for example. This would, in turn contribute to creating a militant nationalism due to create some trouble indeed.
Turku (Åbo) in south-west Finland will retain its position as a Finnish capital instead of Helsinki, which never becomes a major centre. The areas around Turku become the most developed, and wealth and industry is concentrated along the Turku-Tampere axis, sort of like an extension of the Stockholm area in a north-eastern direction. In many ways, to the consternation of Finnish nationalists, by 2009 Turku would look a much like a suburb of Stockholm, with a flourishing cruise industry in between.
By 2009, the Finns will have to have a strong political and cultural autonomy at the minimum to keep the nation intact, otherwise you could see at some point a "True Finn East-Finland" secede possibly even violently while the western coast stays with Stockholm.
Acctually Norway declare independence in protest over falling to Sweden, had Sweden not lost Finland they had not tried to get Norway, and Norway would have stayed in union with Denmark at least for a few more decades. (Norwegian nationalism could then be very painful for Denmark).
For Sweden keeping Finland avoidin wars with Russia is the most important factor. However the late 1800s could become problematic, historically the Finns and Swedes of Finland both attributed to Finnish nationalism, but if Finland remain a part of Sweden there could be serious ethnic clashes when Finnish nationalism is born.
For Sweden keeping Finland avoidin wars with Russia is the most important factor. However the late 1800s could become problematic, historically the Finns and Swedes of Finland both attributed to Finnish nationalism, but if Finland remain a part of Sweden there could be serious ethnic clashes when Finnish nationalism is born.
I Blame Communism
Banned
I agree with most of what has been said, but people seem to be ignoring butterflies as DrakonFin says, and also failing to understand that in 1809 Russia had held approximate Stalinian Karelia (actually a bit more, known as "Old Finland") since 1721, annexing it after the Great Northern War for reasons of security. Therefore more butterflies, and whatever happens then Russia wont be grabbing Karelia in 1815!
As the third post state that Sweden-Finland joins the Continental Blockade instead of allying itself to Britain then there should be no 1808-9 war thus no Russian taking of Old Finland.
I think people have been aware of that!
That in itself is a major butterfly.
But of course nothing have been mentioned as to the possible Swedish loss of Old Finland 1815, which would have severe repercussions in Scandinavia.
Others are my post on events in Denmark-Norway which would be very much influenced as stated.
If Sweden loses Old Finland 1815 and Denmark-Norway come through the war unscated we might see a Scandinavian war with Sweden going for Norway.
If there is no 1808-9 war Gustav 4 wouldn't be dethroned as OTL, but might be able to end his days on the throne, if no other incidents trip-wire him!
That would leave the throne for his son.
No Bernadotte - Nope!
As the third post state that Sweden-Finland joins the Continental Blockade instead of allying itself to Britain then there should be no 1808-9 war thus no Russian taking of Old Finland.
I think people have been aware of that!
That in itself is a major butterfly.
But of course nothing have been mentioned as to the possible Swedish loss of Old Finland 1815, which would have severe repercussions in Scandinavia.
Others are my post on events in Denmark-Norway which would be very much influenced as stated.
If Sweden loses Old Finland 1815 and Denmark-Norway come through the war unscated we might see a Scandinavian war with Sweden going for Norway.
Acctually Sweden lost old Finland in 1721. Old Finland was pretty much Stalin's Karelia and modern day Eastern Finland.
And 1743 when "Old Finland" expanded due to another Russo-Swedish war.
Remember the butterfly effect. It is ASB for World War I to transpire in the same wayfor such a POD as large. In fact, it is up in the air whether there'll be a world war I analouge in TTL in the first quater of the 20th century itself , or whether it would be the World war I of Trench Warfare, as we understand it in OTL.
Your'e not the first to rub in the "butterfly effect". Do us a favor and contribute to the discussion instead of just rubbing it in!!!
Deleted member 1487
So it seems that the POD would best be the entry of Sweden into the continental system. What does this mean for British-Swedish relations, and what does this mean for Gustav IV? It seems that at the first excuse the King and his family will be kicked from holding the thrown, but it is unlikely that Bernadotte will hold the throne.
Regardless, it is Sweden is going to fight against Napoleon in 1814/5 and possibly help Russia during the invasion. So what does this mean for Sweden at Vienna? They still fought, meaning they are likely to get some sort of reward. Unless they were important to the defense of Russia during Napoleon's invasion, don't expect anything in the Baltic. But is Norway still off the table? I am not sure, as Denmark still needed to be punished for helping Napoleon. Perhaps part of Norway?
In any event, the survival of the Swedish-Finnish union is going to be huge to Russia, who may decide a second go for all of Finland is in the cards, but expect Sweden to be making alliances against the threat of the Russian bear. Perhaps Sweden jumps in during the Crimean war?
Also, the basic trends leading up to WW1 are not upset by Finland remaining Swedish, so expect Sweden to be more worried about Russia ITTL. I would see expect to see S-F in a central powers analogue and would be willing to take Russia down a notch.
If that war still occurs, what effect would a Scandinavian army knocking at the door of St. Petersburg have on Russian war plans? Would this be enough for the capitol to be taken or would Russia have switched their capitol to Moscow by this point?
Regardless, it is Sweden is going to fight against Napoleon in 1814/5 and possibly help Russia during the invasion. So what does this mean for Sweden at Vienna? They still fought, meaning they are likely to get some sort of reward. Unless they were important to the defense of Russia during Napoleon's invasion, don't expect anything in the Baltic. But is Norway still off the table? I am not sure, as Denmark still needed to be punished for helping Napoleon. Perhaps part of Norway?
In any event, the survival of the Swedish-Finnish union is going to be huge to Russia, who may decide a second go for all of Finland is in the cards, but expect Sweden to be making alliances against the threat of the Russian bear. Perhaps Sweden jumps in during the Crimean war?
Also, the basic trends leading up to WW1 are not upset by Finland remaining Swedish, so expect Sweden to be more worried about Russia ITTL. I would see expect to see S-F in a central powers analogue and would be willing to take Russia down a notch.
If that war still occurs, what effect would a Scandinavian army knocking at the door of St. Petersburg have on Russian war plans? Would this be enough for the capitol to be taken or would Russia have switched their capitol to Moscow by this point?
Valdemar II
Banned
If Sweden doesn't demand Norway and is promised (which it only got because it lost Finland) it Denmark will join the anti-Napoleon alliance. If Sweden receive anything at all it will be the entire Vorpommern. But quite likely Denmark and Sweden will leave the war empty-handed.
I disagree with Arctic Warriors otherwise excellent analyse in Norway leaving Denmark, fear of Swedish dominans will keep Norway in union with Denmark, likely Denmark will adopt some kind of federalism to keep Norway happy, which will also be extended to Schleswig and Holstein, that will keep Schleswig from dreaming of pan-Germanism, but Holstein will likely still join the idea, that will change the Schleswig Wars quite a lot with a more pro-Danish Schleswig, beside that Sweden will also be forced into those wars thanks to their continued present in Germany.
I disagree with Arctic Warriors otherwise excellent analyse in Norway leaving Denmark, fear of Swedish dominans will keep Norway in union with Denmark, likely Denmark will adopt some kind of federalism to keep Norway happy, which will also be extended to Schleswig and Holstein, that will keep Schleswig from dreaming of pan-Germanism, but Holstein will likely still join the idea, that will change the Schleswig Wars quite a lot with a more pro-Danish Schleswig, beside that Sweden will also be forced into those wars thanks to their continued present in Germany.
Why?
BUTTERFLIES!!!
If Sweden-Finland joins the continental system there will be no war of 1808-9!!!
Thus no probably, as you yourself write, loss of Finland, thus no need to satisfy a Swedish inferioty complex due to the loss of something they didn't lose!!!
Then due to all those BUTTERFLIES so eagerly sought by everybody in this thread no Danish loss of Norway!!!
Deleted member 1487
Alright, so I decided to start and TL arch and need a bit of help on the plausibility, so as I am writing this arch, I will need some feedback.
Here goes:
The riksdag manages to get Gustav in hand and compels him to make peace with France. Sweden then enters into the continental system, closing the Baltic to the British. However by 1812 Russia, Britain, and Sweden sign a secret accord and the continental system is breached.
Napoleon invades Russia, which proceeds like OTL. Sweden remains officially neutral, but is funneling supplies to the Russians in conjunction with Britain. Eventually the Grand Armee is broken at Moscow and the retreat begins. The sixth coalition began its war in Germany and Sweden, whose army never suffered during the Russia invasion and loss of Finland as a recruiting area, contributes a corps nearly double the OTL size. Gustav IV is not present due to the conflicts with the Riksdag. He has not been diposed, but is little more than a figurehead at this point. The Swedish monarchy will never regain its power within the government.
The war proceeds mostly according to OTL, with similar results at Vienna, except that Denmark keeps Norway (butterflies only go so far). However, to compensate Sweden for her involvment in the war, she gets to retain Guadeloupe, which in conjunction with the other Swedish colony of St. Barthelemy, continued to be a nice source of income, as during this period nearly 20% of US exports flowed through their harbors. Additionally the Swedish West Indies Company does not fold in 1813, rather, due to earlier increased illicit trade with Britain during the continental system, it stays in business and an active trading company in East Asia and the Americas.
Europe remains relatively peaceful for a time, as all nations try to reestablish trade and rebuild. Russia is somewhat distracted throughout the '20s and '30s, as border wars to the south and the desire for a warm water port drive imperial ambitions. Additionally the uprisings in Poland focus attention aware from her northern neighbor. The Russians maintain a benign interest in Scandinavia, but come to the conclusion that these minor powers are harmless.
In the meantime, Sweden is involved briefly as a interested power in the Opium wars in China, thanks to their West Indies trading company. This means that they also receive some trading concessions from the Chinese at the conclusion of hostilities. This further involves the Swedes in international trade and shipping. Sweden increasinly modernizes over this period, but also liberalizes, which gives Finns the extra minority rights, thus strengthening the bond between the two peoples. By the 1850's immigration to the US has become a large issue in Sweden, as land reforms do not address the imbalance in land ownership and nearly 1.5 million Swedes and Finns will immigrate in the next 50 years. The greatest policy for maintaining unity between Sweden and Finland, besides the liberalizing economy, education, freedom of press and speech, and taxation reform, is the introduction of universal military service. All 18 year olds are expected to serve 2-3 years in one branch of the military with men from their recruiting districts. This creates helps in the creation of a common identity for the two peoples, despite the rise of nationalism.
Throughout the rest of the 19th century, the Scandinavia powers managed to stay neutral and maintain trade with the rest of Europe despite a series of wars, including the Crimean war and the Franco-Prussian war. Denmark-Norway was not as lucky and was involved in conflicts with Prussia over Schleswig-Holstein, which caused her to cede the territory to the new German state. Despite this territorial loss, Denmark still includes Norway, Iceland, and Greenland, making it, territorially, one of the largest states in Europe. After the creation of the German empire, Denmark, who already had close relation with Sweden, sought even closer economic and political connections. A Scandinavian trade pact would create a de facto free trade zone between the nations that would help industrialization in both nations.
Sweden though maintained cordial relation with the new German state and quickly became a major trading partner. This bond was strengthened by a secret military defensive pact, as Russia increasingly became hostile to the foreign power so close to their capitol. Paranoia in the Tzar's court drove the tension in relations, but as Sweden was a large supplier of raw materials to the German economy, the Kaiser, Frederich III (doesn't experience throat cancer), strongly signaled his support for his northern cousins. It also helped that his son (this Wilhelm does not suffer from a withered arm and is much less...bombastic) was married to the daughter of the Swedish king, Karl Gustav V (all the work of the crafty Bismarck).
By the 1880's the Swedish possessions in the Americas are no longer profitable and France buys them for a decent sum. The Swedish west indies company finally folds, but due to their history of trade in East Asia, other Swedish companies have taken up the business. The turn of the century sees the two Scandinavian powers industrializing rapidly. Swedish inventors were becoming increasing famous for their inventions, dynamite being one of the most widely used of these. The Noble institute would establish the Noble prizes based on the Will of the inventor. His company Bofors, would later go on to become of the largest arms manufacturers in Europe. By the 20th century Sweden would have a population of 7 million and growing. Denmark would have about 4.7 million, but both countries had a rise standard of living that would exceed the population growth.
Scandinavia would have a growing economy that would make it one of the wealthiest areas in the world, but increasing debt would mar the luster of the new prosperity. Large amounts of money were needed from Britain and Germany to finance the growth in industry, specifically Chemical and manufacturing. These debts would eventually be paid down by mid-century, but the experience structured national perceptions to focus on personal savings. This would help create the banking boom that would serve to unseat London and the finance capitol of the world (this was also helped by the fall of British economic dominance and the rise of German).
After the last major conflicts on the continent the resulted in modern Germany, peace had been the rule outside of the Balkans. Despite several wars involving southern European powers with the Ottomans, the 20th century in Europe was possibly the most peaceful in the history of the continent. Eventually, Ottoman resurgence, driven by oil revenues and a modernized government, settled the Balkans and stopped the slow bleeding of land that had plagued the middle eastern giant.
Eventually though, economics and the growth of peripheral powers created tensions within Europe that threated to bring the great powers to the brink of war. The fall of British power had left a bitter nation envious of the new giants. The increase calls for Indian independence had sapped much of the power of the Empire, as British units were required in increasing numbers to combat the rise number of riots and insurgency that followed these calls. France had seemed to accept its status as a second tier power in the European pecking order, but still was resolute to assert itself. But she too was caught up in colonial disturbances by the fifties. Germany had become the largest economy in Europe and had one of the most advanced in the world. Scandinavia was the banking giant and a large industrial power itself. This region also was able to boast about 22 million people by the 1950's. Russia was the one power that had unrealized potential. The bear had been plagued by unrest and violence, which resulted in either repression and more violence, or an uneasy liberalizing period that slowly gave the Duma more power. Eventually, a situation similar to Germany's in the 1910's had emerged. The government was still controlled by the Tzar, but required parliamentary approval for most actions. The economy had grown enormously, but remained in Germany's and America's shadows. Russia was in many ways a resource supplier to Europe, but also, increasingly a manufacturing giant (like OTL China). They also had an increasingly large military and a desire 'for their place in the sun'. Tensions mounted over Russia's desire for THE great power status, which left Europe on wars edge by mid century.
Here goes:
The riksdag manages to get Gustav in hand and compels him to make peace with France. Sweden then enters into the continental system, closing the Baltic to the British. However by 1812 Russia, Britain, and Sweden sign a secret accord and the continental system is breached.
Napoleon invades Russia, which proceeds like OTL. Sweden remains officially neutral, but is funneling supplies to the Russians in conjunction with Britain. Eventually the Grand Armee is broken at Moscow and the retreat begins. The sixth coalition began its war in Germany and Sweden, whose army never suffered during the Russia invasion and loss of Finland as a recruiting area, contributes a corps nearly double the OTL size. Gustav IV is not present due to the conflicts with the Riksdag. He has not been diposed, but is little more than a figurehead at this point. The Swedish monarchy will never regain its power within the government.
The war proceeds mostly according to OTL, with similar results at Vienna, except that Denmark keeps Norway (butterflies only go so far). However, to compensate Sweden for her involvment in the war, she gets to retain Guadeloupe, which in conjunction with the other Swedish colony of St. Barthelemy, continued to be a nice source of income, as during this period nearly 20% of US exports flowed through their harbors. Additionally the Swedish West Indies Company does not fold in 1813, rather, due to earlier increased illicit trade with Britain during the continental system, it stays in business and an active trading company in East Asia and the Americas.
Europe remains relatively peaceful for a time, as all nations try to reestablish trade and rebuild. Russia is somewhat distracted throughout the '20s and '30s, as border wars to the south and the desire for a warm water port drive imperial ambitions. Additionally the uprisings in Poland focus attention aware from her northern neighbor. The Russians maintain a benign interest in Scandinavia, but come to the conclusion that these minor powers are harmless.
In the meantime, Sweden is involved briefly as a interested power in the Opium wars in China, thanks to their West Indies trading company. This means that they also receive some trading concessions from the Chinese at the conclusion of hostilities. This further involves the Swedes in international trade and shipping. Sweden increasinly modernizes over this period, but also liberalizes, which gives Finns the extra minority rights, thus strengthening the bond between the two peoples. By the 1850's immigration to the US has become a large issue in Sweden, as land reforms do not address the imbalance in land ownership and nearly 1.5 million Swedes and Finns will immigrate in the next 50 years. The greatest policy for maintaining unity between Sweden and Finland, besides the liberalizing economy, education, freedom of press and speech, and taxation reform, is the introduction of universal military service. All 18 year olds are expected to serve 2-3 years in one branch of the military with men from their recruiting districts. This creates helps in the creation of a common identity for the two peoples, despite the rise of nationalism.
Throughout the rest of the 19th century, the Scandinavia powers managed to stay neutral and maintain trade with the rest of Europe despite a series of wars, including the Crimean war and the Franco-Prussian war. Denmark-Norway was not as lucky and was involved in conflicts with Prussia over Schleswig-Holstein, which caused her to cede the territory to the new German state. Despite this territorial loss, Denmark still includes Norway, Iceland, and Greenland, making it, territorially, one of the largest states in Europe. After the creation of the German empire, Denmark, who already had close relation with Sweden, sought even closer economic and political connections. A Scandinavian trade pact would create a de facto free trade zone between the nations that would help industrialization in both nations.
Sweden though maintained cordial relation with the new German state and quickly became a major trading partner. This bond was strengthened by a secret military defensive pact, as Russia increasingly became hostile to the foreign power so close to their capitol. Paranoia in the Tzar's court drove the tension in relations, but as Sweden was a large supplier of raw materials to the German economy, the Kaiser, Frederich III (doesn't experience throat cancer), strongly signaled his support for his northern cousins. It also helped that his son (this Wilhelm does not suffer from a withered arm and is much less...bombastic) was married to the daughter of the Swedish king, Karl Gustav V (all the work of the crafty Bismarck).
By the 1880's the Swedish possessions in the Americas are no longer profitable and France buys them for a decent sum. The Swedish west indies company finally folds, but due to their history of trade in East Asia, other Swedish companies have taken up the business. The turn of the century sees the two Scandinavian powers industrializing rapidly. Swedish inventors were becoming increasing famous for their inventions, dynamite being one of the most widely used of these. The Noble institute would establish the Noble prizes based on the Will of the inventor. His company Bofors, would later go on to become of the largest arms manufacturers in Europe. By the 20th century Sweden would have a population of 7 million and growing. Denmark would have about 4.7 million, but both countries had a rise standard of living that would exceed the population growth.
Scandinavia would have a growing economy that would make it one of the wealthiest areas in the world, but increasing debt would mar the luster of the new prosperity. Large amounts of money were needed from Britain and Germany to finance the growth in industry, specifically Chemical and manufacturing. These debts would eventually be paid down by mid-century, but the experience structured national perceptions to focus on personal savings. This would help create the banking boom that would serve to unseat London and the finance capitol of the world (this was also helped by the fall of British economic dominance and the rise of German).
After the last major conflicts on the continent the resulted in modern Germany, peace had been the rule outside of the Balkans. Despite several wars involving southern European powers with the Ottomans, the 20th century in Europe was possibly the most peaceful in the history of the continent. Eventually, Ottoman resurgence, driven by oil revenues and a modernized government, settled the Balkans and stopped the slow bleeding of land that had plagued the middle eastern giant.
Eventually though, economics and the growth of peripheral powers created tensions within Europe that threated to bring the great powers to the brink of war. The fall of British power had left a bitter nation envious of the new giants. The increase calls for Indian independence had sapped much of the power of the Empire, as British units were required in increasing numbers to combat the rise number of riots and insurgency that followed these calls. France had seemed to accept its status as a second tier power in the European pecking order, but still was resolute to assert itself. But she too was caught up in colonial disturbances by the fifties. Germany had become the largest economy in Europe and had one of the most advanced in the world. Scandinavia was the banking giant and a large industrial power itself. This region also was able to boast about 22 million people by the 1950's. Russia was the one power that had unrealized potential. The bear had been plagued by unrest and violence, which resulted in either repression and more violence, or an uneasy liberalizing period that slowly gave the Duma more power. Eventually, a situation similar to Germany's in the 1910's had emerged. The government was still controlled by the Tzar, but required parliamentary approval for most actions. The economy had grown enormously, but remained in Germany's and America's shadows. Russia was in many ways a resource supplier to Europe, but also, increasingly a manufacturing giant (like OTL China). They also had an increasingly large military and a desire 'for their place in the sun'. Tensions mounted over Russia's desire for THE great power status, which left Europe on wars edge by mid century.