Sweden as a major power following the Great Northern War

How could Sweden be a major power following the Great Northern War?

The country has to be called Sweden. Sweden unifying Scandinavia doesn't count.

Retaining Finland and Pomerania are probably musts.

Could Sweden perhaps be a participant in the Polish partitions? Are there colonial gains the Swedes could make?
 

Marc

Donor
Are you speculating on a post-loss Sweden, or a victorious one?

The latter would seem to be a very high sigma event (as in, rolling out 7's in craps, 5 times in a row).

And, what do you think?
 
Are you speculating on a post-loss Sweden, or a victorious one?

The latter would seem to be a very high sigma event (as in, rolling out 7's in craps, 5 times in a row).

And, what do you think?

Well, if your POD involves the War of Spanish Succession not breaking out at the same time it dramatically changes the diplomatic scene. That raises the odds of a victorious (or at least status quo) result for the Swedes signficantly.
 
Well avoid the Swedish Age of Loberty and elect a Gottorp instead of a Hessian as King after Charles. It was really the worst timing for removing absolutism, and while the Gottorps may have been a less than optional royal family, I would say that replacing the Swedish political infighting with them would be preferable, and if the Gottorps embraced similar policies as other Protestant absolute rulers, Sweden would have be one a major player again, also I think going after expanding Swedish Pomerania would been much less risky than going to war with Russia.
 
How could Sweden be a major power following the Great Northern War?

If changes in the GNW are possible, concentrate on Russia instead of King August, make a speedy peace (perhaps with a loss of Ingria, which nobody notices) and then either join the War of the Spanish Succession on French side by grabbing a piece of the territory from Brandenburg-Prussia expanding Swedish Pomerania or go against the PLC trying to get Danzig (which would be isolated from other Swedish possessions).

This way it is not losing its prestige and then it is mostly a matter of maintaining it by not getting into the adventures causing the potential losses of the territory.

The country has to be called Sweden. Sweden unifying Scandinavia doesn't count.

Retaining Finland and Pomerania are probably musts.

Could Sweden perhaps be a participant in the Polish partitions? Are there colonial gains the Swedes could make?

Well, this means that it retains Swedish Livonia by the mid-XVIII while everything else is approximately the same including Russian victory against the Ottomans (which triggered the 1st Partition).

As for the colonies, this subject is widely open to the imagination: if Courland had them why not Sweden? Just don't make too extensive plans for the Swedish India. ;)
 
After a post-loss sweden.

No way. Reputation had been lost (with a critically important pieces of a territory) and nothing short of a miracle could restore it. Replacing dynasty would not help, unless this is one of the major European dynasties, and even that would hardly help. The only more or less realistic scenarios would be union of Sweden and Russia under Karl Peter Ulrich, Duke of Holstein-Gottorp but "realism" is subject to the Swedish agreement to have a not-Lutheran monarch (which makes schema rather unrealistic).
 
No way. Reputation had been lost (with a critically important pieces of a territory) and nothing short of a miracle could restore it. Replacing dynasty would not help, unless this is one of the major European dynasties, and even that would hardly help. The only more or less realistic scenarios would be union of Sweden and Russia under Karl Peter Ulrich, Duke of Holstein-Gottorp but "realism" is subject to the Swedish agreement to have a not-Lutheran monarch (which makes schema rather unrealistic).

Would retaining Finland, being part of the Polish partitions (gaining Courland perhaps), and holding onto Pomerania help? Maybe the Swedes keep Finland but gain Norway like they did OTL.
 
Would retaining Finland, being part of the Polish partitions (gaining Courland perhaps), and holding onto Pomerania help? Maybe the Swedes keep Finland but gain Norway like they did OTL.

Why is Russia letting them both keep Finland AND be part of partitioning Poland? A Sweden who holds Finland is going to be on bad terms with St.Petersburg, and being on good terms is going to be a prerequisite to getting an invitation to the three-course meal on Warsaw's corpse.
 
Would retaining Finland, being part of the Polish partitions (gaining Courland perhaps), and holding onto Pomerania help? Maybe the Swedes keep Finland but gain Norway like they did OTL.

To be a part of the Partitions Sweden needs to retain a meaningful piece of the land adjacent to the PLC. With Livonia lost, this hardly can be the case. It also should retain a prestige of a major military power, which was also lost during the GNW. Finland was absolutely irrelevant for the status and Norway really came into the picture as Bernadotte's way to get extra credit with the Swedes by gaining something as a compensation to the loss of Finland.

Well, to think about it, IF Sweden could raise a really big army (something close to 100K) in 1814 AND to play a much greater role in the fight against Napoleon (in OTL Bernadotte was everything he could to preserve Swedish troops from suffering losses), then its prestige could be improved.
 
To be a part of the Partitions Sweden needs to retain a meaningful piece of the land adjacent to the PLC. With Livonia lost, this hardly can be the case. It also should retain a prestige of a major military power, which was also lost during the GNW. Finland was absolutely irrelevant for the status and Norway really came into the picture as Bernadotte's way to get extra credit with the Swedes by gaining something as a compensation to the loss of Finland.

Well, to think about it, IF Sweden could raise a really big army (something close to 100K) in 1814 AND to play a much greater role in the fight against Napoleon (in OTL Bernadotte was everything he could to preserve Swedish troops from suffering losses), then its prestige could be improved.

Sweden + Norway + Finland + Swedish Pomerania perhaps following the Napoleonic wars?
 
Sweden + Norway + Finland + Swedish Pomerania perhaps following the Napoleonic wars?

Diden't you specifically say unifying Scandinavia dosen't count? Because Sweden at this point basically has Denmark engulfed and is likely to be able to push Pan-Scandinavian sentiments if they want want to.
 
Full partitions of PLC would not be in Sweden's interest. Sweden can't expand deep into Polish territory (Charles X tried and failed). Best thing Sweden could do is to take Baltic ports and impose tarrifs on Polish trade. Partitions would benefit Sweden's rivals-Prussia and Russia, who also wanted Baltic coast (Pomerania/Royal Prussia and Livonia/Ingria)
 
The thing is, even if Sweden wins the war decisively, they can only stay as a major power for so long. The age of mass armies is just starting and they do not have the population to keep up with nations like France, Austria and especially Russia. They might rely on their navy though, but with so many continental holdings, it's only a matter of time until they are reduced to OTL borders.

My honest (and likely unpopular) opinion is that for a Scandinavian Great Power to last into the late 19th century, you need a very early PoD to unite the whole of Scandinavia and also have any of the following:
- Take as much of Germany as possible and assimilate it, the big Hanse cities are a must, as well as Pommerania
- Hold not only Finland and Karelia, but as much of northern Russia as possible, preferably most of Novgorod (in this case the Baltics are a given)
- Hold Britain. There are numerous good PoDs for this and probably has the most potential, but it’s far away and might just break away even if it stays distinctly Scandinavian
 
This is also something I tought about-Swedish expansion into Northern Germany. Sweden would have bigger tax base & more recruits, and until age of nationalism control over Lutheran North Germany should not be too troublesome.
 
The most sensible idea is to stick to a Swedish victory scenario. Ideally by having Charles and Stanislaw achieve a peace with the Polish nobility, Perhaps by being able to capture Augustus the Strong and denying them a Polish leader to rally behind.

After that, with a Swedish Army, Polish army, and Cossack allies Russia is in a bad place. Sweden can take the coast, perhaps improving Nyenschantz to establish a strong presence in both Russia and Finland. Poland-Lithuania can push into Russia, and the Cossacks could even declare recognised independence. Collectively weakening Russia dramatically, and leaving Sweden the power in the North, with Russia a contained Eastern Threat.
 
Perhaps Augustus dies short after Swedish invasion of PLC? Karl XII could install his puppet Leszczyński with less problems than IOTL (it would not be that much difgerent from Augustus II election-just with Swedish troops instead of Saxon ones deciding about results of election). Dead Augustus would not fight to get his throne back, and obviously would not be seen as rightful king anymore by his supporters.
 
Sweden + Norway + Finland + Swedish Pomerania perhaps following the Napoleonic wars?
No Finland - it was lost prior to the time when Sweden could be useful. Norway was in a personal union and, frankly, Swedish Pomerania did not amount for too much except producing a nice compensation paid by Prussia. In the scenario I was talking about Sweden is important by its role in anti-Napoleonic coalition.
 
The most sensible idea is to stick to a Swedish victory scenario. Ideally by having Charles and Stanislaw achieve a peace with the Polish nobility, Perhaps by being able to capture Augustus the Strong and denying them a Polish leader to rally behind.

After that, with a Swedish Army, Polish army, and Cossack allies Russia is in a bad place. Sweden can take the coast, perhaps improving Nyenschantz to establish a strong presence in both Russia and Finland. Poland-Lithuania can push into Russia, and the Cossacks could even declare recognised independence. Collectively weakening Russia dramatically, and leaving Sweden the power in the North, with Russia a contained Eastern Threat.

At the time of the GNW the PLC practically ceased to be a military factor. The Cossacks proved to be quite unenthusiastic about alliance with the Swedes or their own independence (which they formally had), except for a small group of Mazepa's followers and the Cossacks of Zaporozie (whom Swedes openly despised due to their low military qualities). Most of them joined Peter.

Swedish army could successfully operate in Livonia but we know how its attempt of a deep invasion into Russia ended. Not to mention that you'd need a different Charles XII because one of the OTL was clearly oblivious of strategy or even self-interest (chasing August while losing his own territory and rejecting an opportunity to make a good peace).

The problem with Nyenschantz was that nobody wanted to live in the area. This is why Nyenschantz had pathetic defenses and administrative center of Ingria had been moved to Narva (an important port). Not to mention that even fortified Nyenschantz would have nothing to do with "presence" in Russia or Finland (it was neither here nor there), there was no need of establishing Swedish presence in Finland because it already was a part of Sweden and establishing strong Swedish presence in Russia would be rather difficult to accomplish: Sweden did not have enough people. :p
 
Perhaps Augustus dies short after Swedish invasion of PLC? Karl XII could install his puppet Leszczyński with less problems than IOTL (it would not be that much difgerent from Augustus II election-just with Swedish troops instead of Saxon ones deciding about results of election). Dead Augustus would not fight to get his throne back, and obviously would not be seen as rightful king anymore by his supporters.

It seems that you seriously believe that at this time the PLC's main problem was August. :cool:
 
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